January 2019 Observations and Discussions

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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:09 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Hmmm, Jan 12-13 thread locked, I see? Well, OK then, I guess I'll just drop my "observations" for seNJ right here then!



12z GFS, CMC and 32K Nam all on board with 2-3" up the coast to the Ocean-Monmouth county line. Again, with ratios...

Hoping you all in central or southern NJ get decent accumulations.. while we wait up here for the next train

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019      7.75"

Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       50.15"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by aiannone on Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:38 pm

Weird. SREF mean is now 3” for islip
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by Vinnydula on Sat Jan 12, 2019 1:47 pm

Looking more north now. Might see some flakes
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by GreyBeard on Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:06 pm

Just looking at the radar, it's hard to believe that this storm is going to be a complete miss.


http://tempest.aos.wisc.edu/radar/ma3compjs.html

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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by billg315 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:10 pm

I never thought a complete miss, although I know some models show that. I think we see some flakes flying overnight, maybe a coating to an inch if lucky. But still will be frustrating if Delaware and Cape May NJ are getting 4-6” and we get a coating. Mad
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by billg315 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:14 pm

Washington DC under a WSW for 5-10”. South Jersey a WWA for 1-3” and maybe more in a few spots. Soooo close.
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by aiannone on Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:21 pm

Yea they raised amounts for DC and brought the wsw north to Baltimore.
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by SENJsnowman on Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:36 pm

I don't know folks, this isn't looking dead to me.

Exhibit A:

The latest 12K Nam for Hr 33 has the Low at 36*N, 74* W:




10 hours later (Hr 42) the low is at 36*N, 74* W:



That's 10 hours of going nowhere.

Exhibit B:
The precip shield has trended further north by 100 miles over the past three 12K , and there is still 36 hours to go...

00z 12K at 21z for Sun. Precip line below Del Mem Br:




06z 12K at 21z for Sun. Precip line into so. NJ:




12z 12K at 21z for Sun. Precip line at I-195:




I know, I know, I know...but I'm not going anywhere just yet, and for now if you live both south of the Raritan and East of 95 I'm not so sure you should either.

But really, if some one can please just answer these two questions, I think I can handle this one from here:

Do the upper levels look any better attm than yesterday as far as ANY type of blocking or steering?
Are the expected ratios still 15/25:1?

For at least the next 12 hours: I track!

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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by billg315 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:56 pm

SENJ not sure anything is more positive or negative at upper levels. But yeah I’d say at tonight’s temps ratios are probably about 15:1; maybe a little more.
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by larryrock72 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 3:58 pm

I've been following mid-Atlantic weather forum with impending storm, looks like a 50-75 mile jump north to me. TWC here in Barnegat shows under 1" tonight and 1" for tomorrow. I see what you are saying SENJ. I guess they are not factoring in the jump yet. I'm still gonna go with my gut of 2" down here in southern ocean county.

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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by SENJsnowman on Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:03 pm

If the upper level is still garbage than at the present qpf and 15:1, I think east of the GSP for Ocean county on south could hit 5-6". EVERY single model has us at .3-.5 qpf as of now, including all the SR models.



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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by billg315 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:03 pm

I would not at all be surprised to see Southern Ocean County/ Atlantic get 2 or 3”. Maybe even 4” or so in Cape May. Unfortunately the cutoff for measurable snow won’t be very far north of Ocean Co..
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by billg315 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:11 pm

The overrunning snow out ahead of the storm is looking a little ragged, which may not affect SNJ where the actual storm track may still produce snow; but not looking great for Central and North Jersey where that is our primary hope for seeing flakes.
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by larryrock72 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:18 pm

I don't see it getting any further north than I-195 in Point pleasant. It will be nice to see some flakes from this minor event. I'm getting more amped from the future runs of next weekends potential monster. I look forward to this board lighting up again.

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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by SENJsnowman on Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:19 pm

larryrock72 wrote:I've been following mid-Atlantic weather forum with impending storm, looks like a 50-75 mile jump north to me. TWC here in Barnegat shows under 1" tonight and 1" for tomorrow. I see what you are saying SENJ. I guess they are not factoring in the jump yet. I'm still gonna go with my gut of 2" down here in southern ocean county.

Larry, would not be AT ALL surprised to see this end up in an inch or two or less. I think dew points are bad (?) and that might delay accumulations or something on top of the other issues. The important thing with the jump is that the precip shield is now halfway up NJ.

Billg, I am a bit more bullish only based on what I am seeing now in the short range. You're a Shore guy yourself, so you know that 95% of the Shore population is within 10 miles of the coast. So, when I say Ocean co, I really mean coastal Ocean County. And the snow gradient has a very clear positive slope along the coast line.

My 8 year old won't even listen to it, she's done with this stupid storm. lol!!!

And, I'm not going to need a rubber room if this crap's out, believe me. But my map reading skills and deductive analysis say that IMBY, we're getting (3-4 x 1.5)" of snow tomorrow/Monday. Let's see...

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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:19 pm

Big Jump here wow
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:21 pm

One more bump north

url=https://servimg.com/view/19365188/397][/url]
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by larryrock72 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:22 pm

I like your thinking SENJ since I Am in southern ocean county and east of the GSP. Fingers crossed. Wow!!! Skins that is a big jump!

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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by larryrock72 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:26 pm

WWA just issued for southeast PA and Southern NJ on TWC 2-3".

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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by SENJsnowman on Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:26 pm

billg315 wrote:The overrunning snow out ahead of the storm is looking a little ragged, which may not affect SNJ where the actual storm track may still produce snow; but not looking great for Central and North Jersey where that is our primary hope for seeing flakes.

Sure...the SR is better than the LR but the live time is the best yet. Just reacting to the short range map and radar. They are both actually saying 5-6" from I-195 south. But, I'm a student of the game of life...when I see it falling from the sky, it counts! Until then, me, the models and the maps can say whatever we want, ha ha.

Bottom line, it's fun trying to put all this together and make sense at the same time.

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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by Grselig on Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:31 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:
billg315 wrote:The overrunning snow out ahead of the storm is looking a little ragged, which may not affect SNJ where the actual storm track may still produce snow; but not looking great for Central and North Jersey where that is our primary hope for seeing flakes.

Sure...the SR is better than the LR but the live time is the best yet. Just reacting to the short range map and radar. They are both actually saying 5-6" from I-195 south. But, I'm a student of the game of life...when I see it falling from the sky, it counts! Until then, me, the models and the maps can say whatever we want, ha ha.

Bottom line, it's fun trying to put all this together and make sense at the same time.

Well, when the NWS showed 30% chance of light snow for me in their forecast this AM and not its cloudy and dry i don't see much hope for NNJ.  The NNJ forcefield is in full force.  Although the radar does show some cloud trying to meekly crawl their way up.   Good luck to SENJ


Oops i was wrong. Still shows light snow. Would love to see a few flakes.
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by algae888 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:41 pm

90% of the time these things always bump North the last 36 hours. the southern third of New Jersey should see some accumulations furthest south would see more also have to watch for the Redevelopment which looks to be much further north and stronger than the last few days. If you look at the UK it even brushes parts of Long Island as it bombs out well east of us with some sort of inverted trough
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by algae888 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:05 pm

This from a very well-respected met:

there's a low chance the coastal gets enough room to amplify and give us a surprise tomorrow night.
 
there's a low chance the coastal gets enough room to amplify and give us a surprise tomorrow night

if enough of the system is left intact after the PV lobe swings through then it has plenty of room to amplify and come north
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by algae888 on Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:20 pm

Wow the Confluence from the polar vortex lobe moved from just north of Long Island to Southern Maine in 24 hours on the 3K nam that's rather impressive
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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

Post by SENJsnowman on Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:23 pm

well, well, well...does this mean the upper levels may be having a last second change in heart?
Talk about a fickle mistress!

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Re: January 2019 Observations and Discussions

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