January 2019 Observations and Discussions

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Post by Grselig on Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:08 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:37.4 with rain.

Chilly for late April.

Hard to believe on January 5th my low for the season is 4.8 degrees reached on November 23rd.

Speaks volumes how cold that air mass was and how ridiculously mild it's been since mid December.

Big dislike. (Not personal, I know you are not one of them warmacists).  Very Happy  NWS has us in 40’s for the week.   At least  change is on the way with potential on the 12th.
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Post by docstox12 on Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:38 am

39 light rain.NWS has me for slop Monday night into Tuesday morning.Give me pure rain or pure snow, hold the slop.

Read an Accuweather article where they give themselves credit for their Long Range Winter forecast.They had said it would not get cranking until February.
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Post by Grselig on Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:40 am

Just read on another site NWS is limiting the use of helium balloons. How significant is that with respect to models?
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Post by docstox12 on Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:41 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:37.4 with rain.

Chilly for late April.

Hard to believe on January 5th my low for the season is 4.8 degrees reached on November 23rd.

Speaks volumes how cold that air mass was and how ridiculously mild it's been since mid December.

Wish we could have exchanged November for December ! What a great start it was with that cold and 11 inches of snow on November 15th.I thought we had the makings of another 1995-1996.There is a local weather group in Monroe that is calling for a good 6 week period of winter to come.
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Post by Guest on Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:46 pm

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:37.4 with rain.

Chilly for late April.

Hard to believe on January 5th my low for the season is 4.8 degrees reached on November 23rd.

Speaks volumes how cold that air mass was and how ridiculously mild it's been since mid December.

Wish we could have exchanged November for December ! What a great start it was with that cold and 11 inches of snow on November 15th.I thought we had the makings of another 1995-1996.There is a local weather group in Monroe that is calling for a good 6 week period of winter to come.

Things around this forum are starting to sound eerily similar to the way they did in the fall for the upcoming period. Lets hope they pan out 180 degrees different this time.

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Post by Radz on Sat Jan 05, 2019 1:45 pm

1.26" rain thus far, 42.5°...
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Post by amugs on Sat Jan 05, 2019 5:30 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:37.4 with rain.

Chilly for late April.

Hard to believe on January 5th my low for the season is 4.8 degrees reached on November 23rd.

Speaks volumes how cold that air mass was and how ridiculously mild it's been since mid December.

Wish we could have exchanged November for December ! What a great start it was with that cold and 11 inches of snow on November 15th.I thought we had the makings of another 1995-1996.There is a local weather group in Monroe that is calling for a good 6 week period of winter to come.

Things around this forum are starting to sound eerily similar to the way they did in the fall for the upcoming period. Lets hope they pan out 180 degrees different this time.

Jimmy,

Yes they do but the differences I see is we have the guidance showing that the MJO is coming out of a warm phase and heading into the colder phases and the SSW is about completed whereas we were entering into a SSW and coming out of the cold phases on the MJO. I know cautiously optimistic here but I like what I am seeing and teh ENS are coming around to these ideas.

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Post by dkodgis on Sat Jan 05, 2019 7:52 pm

1.6 inches rain here. Wind is kicking up.
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Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Jan 05, 2019 9:35 pm

1.28" of rain today, ugh....

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Post by aiannone on Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:50 pm

.47” of rain imby today
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:39 am

39.7 and dreary.

When does it end? And I mean really end.

I enjoyed the 50+ inches of snow from March 2, forward last winter, but I'd like to start much earlier this year.
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Post by docstox12 on Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:12 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:39.7 and dreary.

When does it end? And I mean really end.

I enjoyed the 50+ inches of snow from March 2, forward last winter, but I'd like to start much earlier this year.

41, cloudy, sun peaking through occasionaly. Might see an inch mon night-tues morning.No hope yet CP but the Long Range Crew is optimistic.All we can do is wait.
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Post by SENJsnowman on Sun Jan 06, 2019 10:34 am

47 and cloudy...very fall like. Great day for November. ha ha

My TWC app has literally bottomed out the temps for next week, 5-10 colder than what was there a day or so ago...dry of course, but way cold enough to snow (36-38* hi temps). Then it warms up to 40s hi's/30s lows the following week. I figure this is the wonk starting to take hold...

Not gonna lie though, i'm in full weenie mode. no lessons learned here of cautious optimism etc...

If this does't pan out, well, in the words of the immortal recording artist Don Johnson, I'm headed for a heartbreak! Admit it...you all loved that song too!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:44 pm

39.7 and snowing, at these temps accomplishing nothing.

You can't make it up.
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Post by frank 638 on Sun Jan 06, 2019 1:46 pm

48* so depressing and to make it worse I noticed around my area some trees have flowers growing on them . I hope to God we get clobbered with snow and cold it's winter for crying out loud

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Post by Guest on Sun Jan 06, 2019 6:01 pm

Temperatures dropping through the day and snow flurries. It's far from a Godzilla, but it beats what the weather has been.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:44 pm

I have a feeling we'll be seeing less warmth and rain very soon...

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Post by Guest on Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:48 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I have a feeling we'll be seeing less warmth and rain very soon...

This better not be you Frank. I’m serious
https://youtu.be/4ulWjFfLsL0

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Post by docstox12 on Mon Jan 07, 2019 3:46 am

syosnow94 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I have a feeling we'll be seeing less warmth and rain very soon...

This better not be you Frank. I’m serious
https://youtu.be/4ulWjFfLsL0

LMAO,when Eddie Mush buys his race tickets, they give them to him already torn in half!

24 degrees, clear.The hated "wintry mix" is predicted for tonight into Tuesday.I HATE SLOP, just make it plain rain since there is no chance of pure snow.Slop is a b__l breaking, useless garbage.
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Post by SENJsnowman on Mon Jan 07, 2019 6:53 am

28* and feels like 18*.

We MJO 8-ing. We Polar Vortex-ing. We even SOI Tank-ing. The only thing we ain’t doing is snow-ing. And the ‘process’ says, that’s just about here, too. Sunday? Monday?


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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 07, 2019 7:41 am

It is looking a little wintry late tonight into tomorrow morning for those N&W of NYC

NAM @ 4am:

January 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_27

NAM @ 7am:

January 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_30

So you can see it is a very fast piece of energy bringing some snow and freezing rain to NW NJ and SNY.

Please be careful driving to work tomorrow morning if you live in these places.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:38 am

The normal temperature for today in the HV

35/16

The low this morning was 17.2 so we basically reached normal.

So maybe today will end 18 straight days of above normal, but it will be close.

The averages for NYC today are 38/27 and the month is so far 9.0 degrees above normal. We need a lot of normal and below normal days to even this month out. Some snow would be nice too.
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Post by amugs on Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:39 am

22* tis morning - BRRRRRRRRRRRR!!

GEM LAM
January 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27

January 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_28

RGEM
January 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_26

January 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_27

January 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_28

WINTER IS COMING BACK FOR N&W PEEPS!

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 07, 2019 8:48 am

RGEM snow map

January 2019 Observations and Discussions - Page 2 Rgem_asnow_neus_32

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Post by dkodgis on Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:36 am

Yes, I had 17 too this morning. Can't hold the woodstove back when it is that cold or colder outside. The ground crunched under my feet while I was walking the dog. I sounded like a Buick hotrodding through the woods.
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