Long Range Thread 18.0

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Post by SENJsnowman on Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:19 am

Amen, JMan. Almost reassuring to see things flip sooner than later...give things a chance to flip back! Here's hoping for great "wake-up reports" from skins, nutley, Algae and the pre-dawn crew!

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Post by Sanchize06 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:32 am

One thing that is interesting for the GFS is just how cold it is, even during the storm. Hr 156 shows sleet for most, but temperatures are in the low 20s. If you can stay all snow with this storm, the ratios will be extremely good.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Prateptype_cat.us_ne

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Sfct.us_ne

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:51 am

Sanchize06 wrote:One thing that is interesting for the GFS is just how cold it is, even during the storm. Hr 156 shows sleet for most, but temperatures are in the low 20s. If you can stay all snow with this storm, the ratios will be extremely good.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Prateptype_cat.us_ne

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Sfct.us_ne
yeah that sleet shouldn't be there judging by temps. Imo if this does track right we are go see a ton of snow. Its the track I'm more concerned about. I think we will have plenty of cold. Btw 21 this morning I don't think I have seen that low on my car yet. That's so sad lol
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:53 am

Hey Rb get up and give us your take frank has made several posts where yurs huh? Lol totally joking but can't wait to read your take seems everyone has a somewhat different idea. Please try to make it user friendly lol
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Post by Sanchize06 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:55 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:One thing that is interesting for the GFS is just how cold it is, even during the storm. Hr 156 shows sleet for most, but temperatures are in the low 20s. If you can stay all snow with this storm, the ratios will be extremely good.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Prateptype_cat.us_ne

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Sfct.us_ne
yeah that sleet shouldn't be there judging by temps. Imo if this does track right we are go see a ton of snow. Its the track I'm more concerned about. I think we will have plenty of cold. Btw 21 this morning I don't think I have seen that low on my car yet. That's so sad lol

Well it looks like the 850mb layer is warm, which goes back to you mentioning the track. Would like to see it come a little south and perhaps a little stronger to ensure all layers are cold. This close track and low level cold could really make for a dangerous ice situation, but we'll see how things change.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Gfs_T850_neus_27

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:02 am

This is were dynamics could take over and keep us snow one thing the coastal section is going to have to keep eye on track
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:22 am

Several pieces of guidance tracked the low to our west last night. I called this a risk in my post last night. There is room for the low to track west, given the amplitude of the southern stream energy and lack of Atlantic blocking. Furthermore, there is a piece of the Polar Vortex that breaks off and phases into the southern stream energy. If this phase occurs too soon the low will cut west and we'll see rain or rain to snow type of event.

Again, keep your expectations in check because I can very well see how this storm ends up cutting. For it not to cut, we need the phase to occur late, or not have a phase at all. Please read my post from last night for more information.

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Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:34 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Several pieces of guidance tracked the low to our west last night. I called this a risk in my post last night. There is room for the low to track west, given the amplitude of the southern stream energy and lack of Atlantic blocking. Furthermore, there is a piece of the Polar Vortex that breaks off and phases into the southern stream energy. If this phase occurs too soon the low will cut west and we'll see rain or rain to snow type of event.

Again, keep your expectations in check because I can very well see how this storm ends up cutting. For it not to cut, we need the phase to occur late, or not have a phase at all. Please read my post from last night for more information.

Great post Frank. From last night too. Unless someone beats me to it I’ll have a post tomorrow with maps and drawing to lay out the players.

Remember, we are only in the 5 to 6 day range. Looking at exact track, definitely looking at 8:50 temperatures and who sees what on the surface is useless at this range. Right now is the time we look at 500 in order to figure out track scenarios. As Frank points out if we phase too early we run the risk of an apps runner. Due to the wave amplification upstream, i.e. the PNA ridge amplification, will likely take a full suppression depression scenario out of the equation this time around. For the next two days focus not on the surface but at 500 to see when or if we phase with the northern branch. Personally I think a phase with the Norton branch is in evitable rather than no phase at all but timing is everything. There will be people on this board very happy when this system is over and done. Exactly who or how many of us is still in question.

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by docstox12 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:40 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Just to lighten the mood the Canadian 0Z showing a cutter. Off on it's own right now and hopefully on crack.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Gem10

To your point, Frank, here is what CP posted last night.The pattern has been for cold and dry and mild with cutters.Hope this storm breaks that pattern for the rest of the winter.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:11 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:This is were dynamics could take over and keep us snow one thing the coastal section is going to have to keep eye on track

The dynamics will have nothing to do with it IMO. If the storm tracks close to the coast and over western LI or worse NYC it can bomb out to 940mb and it will rain on the coast and be sleet or freezing rain inland. The storm track is everything here and almost always is. The strongest storm in intensity I've ever seen (superstorm 93) had snow change to rain along the coast and LI and NYC and a prolonged period of sleet in the interior because the low tracked just about right on the NJ coast and over NYC.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:18 am

Man, looking at the trends in the Pacific and I hate what I see. The PNA/EPO ridges are trending weaker. The Pacific jet is a nightmare right now. It keeps crashing upper energy into the west and disrupting / breaking down our ridges - which completely decimates the pattern downstream.

To avoid any phasing (we normally want phasing so this is a bit different) - we need to have the northern stream energy push ahead of the southern stream.

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Post by Guest on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:23 am

Is this a "I hate what I see" for this weekend or a "I hate what I see" further out or both?

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:27 am

TheAresian wrote:Is this a "I hate what I see" for this weekend or a "I hate what I see" further out or both?

Just for this weekend.

I've been saying the time period after the 20th is MUCH better. I know we're all impatient at this point, myself included, but reality is the pattern WILL BE much more conducive for east coast snowstorms after the 21st. I really like January 26th-February 10th for a Godzilla event. I was never too excited about the threat this weekend, but sadly it is the best threat we've had yet this winter. It says more about this winter than the actual storm itself.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:28 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Man, looking at the trends in the Pacific and I hate what I see. The PNA/EPO ridges are trending weaker. The Pacific jet is a nightmare right now. It keeps crashing upper energy into the west and disrupting / breaking down our ridges - which completely decimates the pattern downstream.

To avoid any phasing (we normally want phasing so this is a bit different) - we need to have the northern stream energy push ahead of the southern stream.

And what's this I'm hearing on the other forums about the MJO back in phases 4 and 5 by next weekend. I thought we ended that nightmare for the foreseeable future. I was hoping the CMC's cutter last night was a blip now I'm hoping it wasn't the first model to catch onto something.
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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:35 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Man, looking at the trends in the Pacific and I hate what I see. The PNA/EPO ridges are trending weaker. The Pacific jet is a nightmare right now. It keeps crashing upper energy into the west and disrupting / breaking down our ridges - which completely decimates the pattern downstream.

To avoid any phasing (we normally want phasing so this is a bit different) - we need to have the northern stream energy push ahead of the southern stream.

And what's this I'm hearing on the other forums about the MJO back in phases 4 and 5 by next weekend. I thought we ended that nightmare for the foreseeable future. I was hoping the CMC's cutter last night was a blip now I'm hoping it wasn't the first model to catch onto something.

Yes, it does look like the MJO will get back into warm phases. But those changes to our pattern would occur sometime after February 5th. I should mention though the forecast shows low amplitude phases 4 and 5, not strong amplitude like we saw a couple of weeks ago.

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:38 am

Regarding the Pacific Jet Stream - here it is on the GFS valid this Friday. The deep red and purple colors off the west coast of the U.S. indicate a strong jet resulting in 500mb upper air energy crashing into our ridges.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Gfs_uv250_npac_18

But check out what happens between January 23rd and 30th (and probably beyond the 30th):

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Gfs_uv250_npac_41

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Gfs_uv250_npac_53

The Pac jet retracts all the way back to the western Pacific. This means we should not see energy try to disrupt our pattern. This will allow the EPO/PNA ridges to amplify and bring about anomalous Pacific blocking.

I am really liking the period after this weekend for a big coastal storm.

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Math23x7 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:40 am

Yup.  The MJO, according to both the ECMWF and GEFS, should be in phases 4/5/6 (warm phases) by the end of this week.  To rub salt into the wounds, they both have the MJO going into the neutral circle before it can get into Phases 7/8/1 (cold by January standards).

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Mjogef10

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Mjoecm11

What Frank was just mentioning regarding the Pacific energy, I think the models are now picking up on this MJO signal by showing both an interior low track for the weekend and a transient cold shot before temperatures shoot back up by the end of the week.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:44 am

Math23x7 wrote:Yup.  The MJO, according to both the ECMWF and GEFS, should be in phases 4/5/6 (warm phases) by the end of this week.  To rub salt into the wounds, they both have the MJO going into the neutral circle before it can get into Phases 7/8/1 (cold by January standards).

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Mjogef10

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Mjoecm11

What Frank was just mentioning regarding the Pacific energy, I think the models are now picking up on this MJO signal by showing both an interior low track for the weekend and a transient cold shot before temperatures shoot back up by the end of the week.

This post is false. The MJO is currently in the COD but you can see our pattern from the 21st and on is very favorable for extreme cold and east coast storms. There is a time lag between the MJO and our pattern. It does not enter phase 5 then automatically transfer our pattern to a warmer one.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Rmm.phase.Last40days.gif.small

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Realtimemjo

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:21 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Yup.  The MJO, according to both the ECMWF and GEFS, should be in phases 4/5/6 (warm phases) by the end of this week.  To rub salt into the wounds, they both have the MJO going into the neutral circle before it can get into Phases 7/8/1 (cold by January standards).

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Mjogef10

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Mjoecm11

What Frank was just mentioning regarding the Pacific energy, I think the models are now picking up on this MJO signal by showing both an interior low track for the weekend and a transient cold shot before temperatures shoot back up by the end of the week.

This post is false. The MJO is currently in the COD but you can see our pattern from the 21st and on is very favorable for extreme cold and east coast storms. There is a time lag between the MJO and our pattern. It does not enter phase 5 then automatically transfer our pattern to a warmer one.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Rmm.phase.Last40days.gif.small

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Realtimemjo

Also the last time the MJO was in the warm phases the strat was undergoing its changes.  We now have the strat changes in place so IMO we will see a diff outcome due to a different sum of all working parts.  We did not have the strat effects putting up resistance to the MJO in any way the last time. This time we do.

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:32 am

Is this weekend being a big event still very much on the table or is it unlikely now? I'm getting mixed signals here.
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Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:33 am

jmanley32 wrote:Is this weekend being a big event still very much on the table or is it unlikely now? I'm getting mixed signals here.

Yes. What is the mixed signal Jon?

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Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:09 am

12z GFS coming in warmer and west. Coastal and just inland rain.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:11 am

aiannone wrote:12z GFS coming in warmer and west. Coastal and just inland rain.

The trend starting last night and continuing today has not been our friend.

Lots of time left for this one, but this winter this seems to be the theme.
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Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:13 am

Yikes all rain except mid Hudson valley on north
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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 6 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:16 am

aiannone wrote:Yikes all rain except mid Hudson valley on north

Can't say I am shocked.

Still time to see trends go the other way but I really despise the Pacific right now.

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