Long Range Thread 18.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:25 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
aiannone wrote:Yikes all rain except mid Hudson valley on north

Can't say I am shocked.

Still time to see trends go the other way but I really despise the Pacific right now.

I should say though, there is moderate snow on the backend.

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:29 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
aiannone wrote:Yikes all rain except mid Hudson valley on north

Can't say I am shocked.

Still time to see trends go the other way but I really despise the Pacific right now.

Not so sure that run was a Pac issue vs a strength and position of the TPV issue

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:30 am


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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:37 am

12z vs 6z




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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jimv45 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:48 am

Being in the Mid-Hudson Valley I might get something, but not banking on it!!! lets hope more south and east.

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Guest on Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:50 am

I'm forgetting all logic and science and clinging for dear life onto whatever surface map gives me the most snow.

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by dsix85 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:56 am

@Frank.. Could there be a windshield-wiper effect occurring here as Rayno often alludes to with storms this far out? Could we see the models waffle back and forth?

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by billg315 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:59 am

Well, this type of setup would be typical of a snow-to-rain-to-ending as snow type of event. Even with the changeover to rain mid-storm there could be a few inches before the rain and the back side of the storm still provides a few inches of snow. This could very well be one of those storms where for many on this board you really are reduced to watching the radar and the temperature in your backyard real-time to figure what you're going to end up with.
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:01 pm

No one panic.  Its still 5.5-6 days out. When was the last storm where the soln was set in stone this far out

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by billg315 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:03 pm

sroc4 wrote:No one panic.  Its still 5.5-6 days out.  When was the last storm where the soln was set in stone this far out

Amen to this as well. This is far too complex a setup to be drawing any definitive conclusions this far out.
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by docstox12 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:04 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
aiannone wrote:12z GFS coming in warmer and west. Coastal and just inland rain.

The trend starting last night and continuing today has not been our friend.

Lots of time left for this one, but this winter this seems to be the theme.

Someone wisely posted "cautiously optimistic" and I think this far out it's a good idea.NWS honking at this juncture for us all snow CP but sadly, the big storms have been suppressed or have cut and until that pattern is broken , we can only hope on this one.
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:19 pm

Scott no mixed signal now and rays silence says it all hiding lol
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:22 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Scott no mixed signal now and rays silence says it all hiding lol

Stop it. This better be a joke. Hes not hiding. He said he was going to have a detailed synopsis. I guarantee he will if not today by the am.

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"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
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Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:25 pm

The weenie ism is magnified when there has been snow deprivation.  The GEFS are S&E of the Op.  Living and dying by individual runs at this time frame is CRAZYYY!


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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
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WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 12:31 pm

The signal is clear and it's on all guidance sensible weather is still up in the air this far out. What I'm noticing first is Thursday night Friday system trending stronger on most guidance. That could end up being a nice 2 to 4in advisory event. Very complex for the weekend though what is the polar vortex lobe going to do phase in or squeeze and push the system East and south we shall see. That's some very impressive cold air just to our North at least we have something legit to track
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:24 pm

The GEFS show EPIC Pacific AND Atlantic blocking from the 25th and on.

I am so pumped.


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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:25 pm

Euro coming in. Looks similar to 0z
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:27 pm

aiannone wrote:Euro coming in. Looks similar to 0z

It is very phased and all rain.

Thank you, next.

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:27 pm


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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:27 pm

I have to be mindful of posters who live much further north and have a chance to get crushed from this system.


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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:30 pm

Oof now we have ice even down to LI

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:31 pm

aiannone wrote:Oof now we have ice even down to LI


This run improved aloft. Maybe that is a sign.

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by docstox12 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:35 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I have to be mindful of posters who live much further north and have a chance to get crushed from this system.


Yes, that 32 degree line is a tad south of CP and I.Damian, hyde and jimv would get whacked good while CP and I would be in the mix from that map.
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:36 pm


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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 1:38 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
aiannone wrote:Oof now we have ice even down to LI


This run improved aloft. Maybe that is a sign.

Much improved aloft.

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
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WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

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