Long Range Thread 18.0
+48
Roger92
Quietace
GreyBeard
mmanisca
oldtimer
Dunnzoo
Irish
snowday111
brownie
Grselig
Zhukov1945
Snow88
crippo84
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dkodgis
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HectorO
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Carvin
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amugs
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weatherwatchermom
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52 posters
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
I wonder if we're going to end up seeing two waves of low pressure along the slow-moving frontal system so we snow to mix to rain then we get a lull and then we rain to mix to snow with the second one still a lot to be determined
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
As things stand right now, would my area be looking at a higher ratio event? Temps seem as though they will be pretty low out my way.
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Would be ironic if with all the focus on Sunday we wake up to to a couple inches of snow Friday morning (I think many people will) and get mostly rain Sunday. Would like to see if we get more clarity on what will happen Sunday after Thursday night plays out.
Last edited by billg315 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
billg315- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
From a Pro Met:
Possible SMR (Sudden Model Response) to the downwelling with the EPS 12z suite and other models.
Tomorrow will either be distractedly exciting, or deliver another pendulum swing back.
The process of down welling is well under way and has been for the last several days and will cause issues within the model suites. Keep in mind for the overall pattern evolution.
Possible SMR (Sudden Model Response) to the downwelling with the EPS 12z suite and other models.
Tomorrow will either be distractedly exciting, or deliver another pendulum swing back.
The process of down welling is well under way and has been for the last several days and will cause issues within the model suites. Keep in mind for the overall pattern evolution.
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
billg315 wrote:Would be ironic if with all the focus on Sunday we wake up to to a couple inches of snow Friday morning (I think many people will) and get mostly rain Sunday. Would like to see if we get more clarity on what will happen Sunday after Thursday night plays out.
Good post. More to come
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Start a new thread on Friday in the AM - it looks to be the appetizer hopefully to the main course this weekend.
Friday looks to be a good clipper - a tad more South and we ring a ding for a 2-4" event from Driscoll bridge North.
Friday looks to be a good clipper - a tad more South and we ring a ding for a 2-4" event from Driscoll bridge North.
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
18GEFS look great. South and east of OP.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
This is a sick 3D animation of what happend to the PV
https://twitter.com/zd1awrence/status/1084935021171924992?s=19
Down welling affects will be here soon as we've been harping on ~20th -25 time frame!!
https://twitter.com/zd1awrence/status/1084935021171924992?s=19
Down welling affects will be here soon as we've been harping on ~20th -25 time frame!!
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
This is NOT an easy forecast, gang. Seriously, this is one of the hardest forecasts I've had come across my monitors in quite some time. In the middle of my analysis now, so my discussion should be up in another couple of hours. Very, very difficult.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Ok, so I've determined which way I'm leaning with this system in terms of expected trends over the coming days, but it's really tight.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
rb924119 wrote:Ok, so I've determined which way I'm leaning with this system in terms of expected trends over the coming days, but it's really tight.
And the answer, or in this case the leaning is???
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:rb924119 wrote:Ok, so I've determined which way I'm leaning with this system in terms of expected trends over the coming days, but it's really tight.
And the answer, or in this case the leaning is???
Now, now, CP, don't spoil the fun of anxiously awaiting.........besides, it may not even be good news for all you know lol
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
rb924119 wrote:CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:rb924119 wrote:Ok, so I've determined which way I'm leaning with this system in terms of expected trends over the coming days, but it's really tight.
And the answer, or in this case the leaning is???
Now, now, CP, don't spoil the fun of anxiously awaiting.........besides, it may not even be good news for all you know lol
Please don't keep us in suspense
Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
weatherwatchermom- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
I will definitely say this as well - whomever is lucky enough to remain all snow, it is going to absolutely RIP for about 12-15 hours. Ratios will be maximized, and incredibly, dendrites should be the favored crystal habit. Honestly, those Crapola maps will probably not be that far off. I can see max totals of 18-24" here of pure powder, even with a relatively short duration. This will be amazing for those lucky enough to get it.
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Lmao Frank!! I see you still haven't changed the algorithm to change K.U.C.H.E.R.A. to "Crapola" ahahaha classic!!
rb924119- Meteorologist
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Lol! 0Z Icon for 1/20 storm. Shows tremendous snow rates and then pouring rain with surface temperatures in teens.
heehaw453- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
GFS has the first system a little stronger, brings down a little bit more cold air and lowers heights along the EC. We'll see if this leads to a little more south track this run
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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SoulSingMG- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Nope, looks worse actually lol
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
GFS does give some backend snow
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Gfs is odd
Vinnydula- Pro Enthusiast
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
once again, brief snow to rain back to heavy snow on the 0z GFS
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aiannone- Senior Enthusiast - Mod
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0
Most snow for NYC and coastal areas on this map is backend
Sanchize06- Senior Enthusiast
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