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Long Range Thread 18.0

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 9 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by amugs Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:14 pm

EPS

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 9 Dw51c7oXgAAYJPn

GEFS

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 9 Dw51c7lWwAAFX23


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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 9 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by aiannone Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:15 pm

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 9 Captur11

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Post by aiannone Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:18 pm

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 9 Captur12

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Post by algae888 Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:22 pm

I wonder if we're going to end up seeing two waves of low pressure along the slow-moving frontal system so we snow to mix to rain then we get a lull and then we rain to mix to snow with the second one still a lot to be determined
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Post by Guest Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:24 pm

As things stand right now, would my area be looking at a higher ratio event? Temps seem as though they will be pretty low out my way.

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Post by billg315 Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:58 pm

Would be ironic if with all the focus on Sunday we wake up to to a couple inches of snow Friday morning (I think many people will) and get mostly rain Sunday. Would like to see if we get more clarity on what will happen Sunday after Thursday night plays out.


Last edited by billg315 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 9 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by amugs Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:59 pm

From a Pro Met:
Possible SMR (Sudden Model Response) to the downwelling with the EPS 12z suite and other models.

Tomorrow will either be distractedly exciting, or deliver another pendulum swing back.

The process of down welling is well under way and has been for the last several days and will cause issues within the model suites. Keep in mind for the overall pattern evolution.

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 14, 2019 5:59 pm

billg315 wrote:Would be ironic if with all the focus on Sunday we wake up to to a couple inches of snow Friday morning (I think many people will) and get mostly rain Sunday. Would like to see if we get more clarity on what will happen Sunday after Thursday night plays out.

Good post. More to come

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Post by amugs Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:02 pm

Start a new thread on Friday in the AM - it looks to be the appetizer hopefully to the main course this weekend.

Friday looks to be a good clipper - a tad more South and we ring a ding for a 2-4" event from Driscoll bridge North.

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Post by Guest Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:43 pm

I don't normally want a forecast to be too low on the temps, but in this case I'll make an exception.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 9 Fv3p_t11

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Jan 14, 2019 6:49 pm

18GEFS look great. South and east of OP.
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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 9 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by amugs Mon Jan 14, 2019 7:42 pm

This is a sick 3D animation of what happend to the PV

https://twitter.com/zd1awrence/status/1084935021171924992?s=19

Down welling affects will be here soon as we've been harping on ~20th -25 time frame!!

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 9 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 14, 2019 8:43 pm

This is NOT an easy forecast, gang. Seriously, this is one of the hardest forecasts I've had come across my monitors in quite some time. In the middle of my analysis now, so my discussion should be up in another couple of hours. Very, very difficult.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:16 pm

Ok, so I've determined which way I'm leaning with this system in terms of expected trends over the coming days, but it's really tight.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:30 pm

rb924119 wrote:Ok, so I've determined which way I'm leaning with this system in terms of expected trends over the coming days, but it's really tight.

And the answer, or in this case the leaning is???
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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:36 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Ok, so I've determined which way I'm leaning with this system in terms of expected trends over the coming days, but it's really tight.

And the answer, or in this case the leaning is???

Now, now, CP, don't spoil the fun of anxiously awaiting.........besides, it may not even be good news for all you know lol

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Post by weatherwatchermom Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:01 pm

rb924119 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Ok, so I've determined which way I'm leaning with this system in terms of expected trends over the coming days, but it's really tight.

And the answer, or in this case the leaning is???

Now, now, CP, don't spoil the fun of anxiously awaiting.........besides, it may not even be good news for all you know lol

Please don't keep us in suspense


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 9 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:03 pm

I will definitely say this as well - whomever is lucky enough to remain all snow, it is going to absolutely RIP for about 12-15 hours. Ratios will be maximized, and incredibly, dendrites should be the favored crystal habit. Honestly, those Crapola maps will probably not be that far off. I can see max totals of 18-24" here of pure powder, even with a relatively short duration. This will be amazing for those lucky enough to get it.

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Post by rb924119 Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:04 pm

Lmao Frank!! I see you still haven't changed the algorithm to change K.U.C.H.E.R.A. to "Crapola" ahahaha classic!!

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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 9 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by heehaw453 Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:50 pm

Lol! 0Z Icon for 1/20 storm. Shows tremendous snow rates and then pouring rain with surface temperatures in teens.

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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:03 pm

GFS has the first system a little stronger, brings down a little bit more cold air and lowers heights along the EC. We'll see if this leads to a little more south track this run

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Post by SoulSingMG Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:04 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Lol!  0Z Icon for 1/20 storm. Shows tremendous snow rates and then pouring rain with surface temperatures in teens.

Someone just tweeted this lol. Good LORD.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 9 360d2610
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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:07 pm

Nope, looks worse actually lol

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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:14 pm

GFS does give some backend snow

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Post by Vinnydula Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:14 pm

Gfs is odd
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Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 9 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by aiannone Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:17 pm

once again, brief snow to rain back to heavy snow on the 0z GFS

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Post by Sanchize06 Mon Jan 14, 2019 11:18 pm

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 9 Sn10_acc.us_ne

Most snow for NYC and coastal areas on this map is backend

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