Long Range Thread 18.0

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Post by amugs on Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:15 am

Okay peeps again not paying attention to the OP runs but I have to say a nice flip with this run and good look so far here. The nagative nanays and scorned folk will.look as such at this but a Banana high look will.press on this.Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 2 Eps_sl11
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 2 Eps_sl12
The control show the SPV,  different than the TPV.
SPV = Stratospheric Polar Vortex - high up atmosphere that as per NASA reports is the coldest since it has been since keeping records due to.....wait for it.......low........solar!!
TPV is our layer of the atmosphere (Troposheric Polar Vortex ) cold but not nearly as cold as the stratosphere. 
SPV you are looking at way below zero temp like teens to 20's. TPV looking at 0 to negative high single digits maybe low teens for our area.  

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 2 Eps_t810

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:16 am

jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 2 15473810


Please
a huge portion of that is all ice and sleet. If you look at the surface map with precip types.

I think models are incorrectly handling temps. I think CF issues are causing temps to rise
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:33 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 2 15473810


Please
a huge portion of that is all ice and sleet. If you look at the surface map with precip types.

I think models are incorrectly handling temps. I think CF issues are causing temps to rise
well then I pray the new Gfs actually gets it right.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:36 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:35 am

rb924119 wrote:
algae888 wrote:I wouldn't get very excited about next weekend system it looks more like a cold frontal passage with  waves of low pressure riding along it. Where the boundary sets up is too early to tell probably wouldn't know till Thursday for sure but don't look for anything big from this but it definitely can drop some snow as Frank says the pattern really gets ripe after this one when we have blocking over Greenland and the Pacific finally slows down

Respectfully disagree, Al Wink I think excitement is warranted at this stage.
well lets see who is right on this one Rb has been spot on this season. No disrespect to your thoughts though Al you know a lot too.
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Post by docstox12 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:40 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:MY weather channel app, never that reliable but sometimes telling, has 12-21 inches of snow for Orange County next Saturday and Sunday. For three days now it's shown consistently 9-16 and now 12-21. It's seeing something as are all the models at this far out juncture. A lot of model runs between now and next weekend.

At this juncture, CP, just having a possible big storm consistently showing up is a good sign.I'm not looking at totals or types, just getting the signals is good news.We are so due after being scrooed with cold and dry/rainy and mild the last 2 months here.
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Post by hyde345 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:55 am

Cmc goes from 30+ inches of snow for me to rain in 1 run. Still way to early to know how this is going to play out.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:06 am

I don't think we should place any bets at all or get too excited especially run to run until at least mid week. I'm not going to I have way more important things to do especially if this ends up being nothing.
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Post by amugs on Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:06 am

The ENS correctness in the EPO, PNA, AO and NAO regions is great to see as a snow weenie. I see more correctness and we move forward in time. 
From our on Armando.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 2 ?format=go&jsonp=vglnk_154739906218515&key=e1e7dc862af11f29652fc542d68928ac&libId=jqv5enp90102n0l7000MAozh7qh5d&loc=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Ftopic%2F1548-eastern-us-jan-2019-consolidated-disc-obs%2F%3Fpage%3D199%26tab%3Dcomments%23comment-119826&v=1&out=https%3A%2F%2Fs3.amazonaws.com%2F33andrain%2Fmonthly_2019_01%2Fgfs-ens_z500a_nhem_fh186-366.gif.d7eacd0e6143d6fd020e355e39cc3034.gif&ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Ftopic%2F1548-eastern-us-jan-2019-consolidated-disc-obs%2F%3Fpage%3D202&title=%5BEastern%20US%5D%20Jan

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Post by amugs on Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:13 am

Advice here, this extremely changing pattern at the 500mb level with the SPV and TPV splits and mass cold air will cause very big fluctuations in OP runs. 
You'll ride the rollercoast of OP from a blizzard to a driving rainstorm. A 1040 plus HP in in the GL is not going to budge to a 1000mb storm. That is going to press the storm east.

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Post by hyde345 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:22 am

amugs wrote:Advice here, this extremely changing pattern at the 500mb level with the SPV and TPV splits and mass cold air will cause very big fluctuations in OP runs. 
You'll ride the rollercoast of OP from a blizzard to a driving rainstorm. A 1040 plus HP in in the GL is not going to budge to a 1000mb storm. That is going to press the storm east.

Agree 100% Mugs. This is not going to be a lakes cutter for sure and the details of what happens next weekend won't be known until mid week at the earliest.


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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:30 am

All that matters right now is their is a strong storm signal at this time. Now we need to see the players on the field and how it evolves!!!
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Post by frank 638 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 10:56 am

The weather channel has snow for Saturday night with 1 to 3 inches of snow .3 to 5 inches of snow for Sunday and 1 to 3 inches For Sunday night I. Hope this is true

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Post by rb924119 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 11:55 am

E.U.R.O.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:00 pm

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 2 5c3b8411
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 2 5c3b8512
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 2 5c3b8513
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:00 pm

Huge hit at Euro and I like we're its at at this range
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Post by amugs on Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:02 pm

rb924119 wrote:E.U.R.O.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hot Diggity - Too bad it 7 days away but the potential is there - looking forward to teh EPS runs - GEFS just ablsoultely dropped the hammer onus evolution wise:
N EPO, AO and NAO and big PNA with a split flow - folks the STJ originates on this SPLIT flow from...............HAWAII!!!!!!!

Check out this tweet by Earthlight AKA John Homenuk
https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1084514022056251395

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:03 pm

And I'm not showing the snow map because it will change a million times lol
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Post by amugs on Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:08 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:And I'm not showing the snow map because it will change a million times lol
Again no use for OP's at this juncture but use ENS and the evolution is something we maybe and I stress maybe putting in teh archives when all is said and done. Just saying................
And Dr. Cohen tweeted that we may see winter last through mid March - HMMMMM - the 45-60, 30 day cycle theory at play here folks!!

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:10 pm

amugs wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:And I'm not showing the snow map because it will change a million times lol
Again no use for OP's at this juncture but use ENS and the evolution is something we maybe and I stress maybe putting in teh archives when all is said and done. Just saying................
And Dr. Cohen tweeted  that we may see winter last through mid March - HMMMMM - the 45-60, 30 day cycle theory at play here folks!!

Indeed
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:12 pm

Look at the amount of QOF wow
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Post by algae888 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:17 pm

That's one impressive Euro run today still not getting my hopes up as this is 7 days out and the way things have trended this year.
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Post by SoulSingMG on Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:21 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:And I'm not showing the snow map because it will change a million times lol

Oops.

Sorry SYO tongue Congrats beantown What a Face

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:29 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:And I'm not showing the snow map because it will change a million times lol

Oops.

Sorry SYO tongue Congrats beantown What a Face

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 2 94e88010

Those totals will press south and east
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Post by hyde345 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:30 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:And I'm not showing the snow map because it will change a million times lol

Oops.

Sorry SYO tongue Congrats beantown What a Face

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 2 94e88010

This gives me 32 inches, lol, but so did CMC at 00z before 12z showed a cutter and mostly rain. Long way to go on this one.
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Post by rb924119 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 12:30 pm

OO MY EURO ENSEMBLES

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