Long Range Thread 18.0

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Post by Guest on Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:50 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:Holy crap Frank. If that’s true and this weekends storm busts then we are potentially looking at our entire winter being a 10 day stretch up through late February. Ouch. What a disaster

If somehow the next 3 weeks do not produce anything then this will be the most disastrous winter of my lifetime.

Luckily I feel good about the next few weeks.


Ok then. Lets hope for some luck. Incredible we’re at this point!! Mad

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Post by amugs on Thu Jan 17, 2019 8:56 am

Well look at this brutal lobe of the PV coming into our neck of the woods:
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 DxHNahnX4AAneBz

The "hype" forecatst for this winter are busting for all pros and amateurs alike unless we have a rocking February. Mike will come out of his hole and said see ya and people will say he was right but for what reasons? That is the retrospect of the season that will need to be examined and I am perplexed by the mjo and this set up with 5-6 phases when that is where the cold waters are - cant make this shit up. Four is warm yes but so is 3 and 1 and 2 off teh African Continent for gods sake - that is where you would see the Upward Motion - convection to be in
96-97 and 97-98 were brutal winters. I put an addition up the winter yes the winter of 96-97 and hardly wore a sweatshirt let alone a jacket.
This is a killer right here and need this to go away fast 1.2 warm
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Nino12

This is not the Modoki look that was being forecasted, sorry.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Carte2

Not being a debbie downer here but pointing out the facts, we need a stretch of 45 days of winter to recover.

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Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:18 am

amugs wrote:Well look at this brutal lobe of the PV coming into our neck of the woods:
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 DxHNahnX4AAneBz

The "hype" forecatst for this winter are busting for all pros and amateurs alike unless we have a rocking February. Mike will come out of his hole and said see ya and people will say he was right but for what reasons? That is the retrospect of the season that will need to be examined and I am perplexed by the mjo and this set up with 5-6 phases when that is where the cold waters are - cant make this shit up. Four is warm yes but so is 3 and 1 and 2 off teh African Continent for gods sake - that is where you would see the Upward Motion - convection to be in
96-97 and 97-98 were brutal winters. I put an addition up the winter yes the winter of 96-97 and hardly wore a sweatshirt let alone a jacket.
This is a killer right here and need this to go away fast 1.2 warm
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Nino12

This is not the Modoki look that was being forecasted, sorry.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Carte2

Not being a debbie downer here but pointing out the facts, we need a stretch of 45 days of winter to recover.


I posted this on Monday Mugs.  


Quickly regarding the MJO into the warm phase discussion:

The last time the MJO was in the warm phases the strat was undergoing its changes.  We now have the strat changes in place so IMO we will see a diff outcome due to a different sum of all working parts.  We did not have the strat effects putting up resistance to the MJO in any way the last time. This time we do.  Is this not a consideration at all or are we simply looking at MJO into warm phases forecast, and concluding here we go again; the pattern will collapse?

As far as Nino regions I think the ENSO this season has been relatively negligible in its overall input into the big picture.  At times it has helped and hurt but only in relatively minor ways compared to other more significant contributors...MJO and Strat

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Post by billg315 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:02 am

To Scott's point, I don't think, from what I've read from the Climate Prediction Center reports (and I admit not being a big expert on these things), that ENSO has played much of a role this year thus far. And we are now so late in the season I'm not sure that it will. Even if stronger El Nino conditions emerged in the Spring it's too late to impact.

I'll be interested when all is said and done to see what analysis of this MJO situation shows because it certainly seems that was the monkey wrench in this whole thing and it doesn't appear it was predictable.
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Post by amugs on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:19 am

^^^^^^^^I hear yuo SROC and Billg - I was just pointing out the fact that a Modoki Nino was forecasted which would have had some affects on the pattern as we got into winter.
The 1.2 warmth most of this met winter has been a thorn in the side as well as the MJO phases and strength again which many did not see as a factor. I saw the warm convection to be where the waters were warmest since you have Uppward Motion and convergence between the warm and cold air/waters. Also, the EAMT and FT were to be players in this realm as well as well as the GWO. But I guess there is much I need to learn with this (we always do) and when this winter is over need to analyze the what and why IMO.
Still hoping for a 45 day kick arse cycle to end this winter but that map Frank showed gives me pause after the Feb 10thish.

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Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:59 am

amugs wrote:^^^^^^^^I hear yuo SROC and Billg - I was just pointing out the fact that a Modoki Nino was forecasted which would have had some affects on the pattern as we got into winter.
The 1.2 warmth most of this met winter has been a thorn in the side as well as the MJO phases and strength again which many did not see as a factor. I saw the warm convection to be where the waters were warmest since you have Uppward Motion and convergence between the warm and cold air/waters. Also, the EAMT and FT were to be players in this realm as well as well as the GWO. But I guess there is much I need to learn with this (we always do) and when this winter is over need to analyze the what and why IMO.
Still hoping for a 45 day kick arse cycle to end this winter but that map Frank showed gives me pause after the Feb 10thish.

Many talked about the possibility of the Modoki El Nino but as you followed along it was always a basin wide Nino. Here is my approximation to the Nino region plots. You can see that obv Nino 1.2 is the most erratic du to the shallow nature of those water. But even here you can clearly see that for the most part basin wide all Nino regions peaked between 0.5-1.0 and did so approx at the same time.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Nino1210
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Nino310
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Nino3410
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Nino410


I think the result of the basin wide El Nino and the warmer wtaers off the E African coast, combined with the contrastingly anomalously cold waters surrounding most of Australia(esp W coast) vs the warm anomalies due N of this in the Bay of Bengal, Eastern Sea, and western Pac has resulted in the preference for convection or upward motion in the MJO phases of 3-6 during the Dec stretch. Combine this with the state of the strat at that time and what you got was anomalously strong upward motion in said MJO phases which worked more in concert with the state of the strat. Now also ironically this same MJO pulse, the intensity of which was not well foreseen, fed back into the upper levels and eventual strat leading to the also anomalously strong Strat warming event that has taken place. Unfort The prolonged nature of the MJO pulse in less than favorable phases led to a prolonged response to the Start itself. In turn seemed to delay the Strat changes that would then feed back down to the trop leading us to the propensity to develop high lat blocking pattern. BUT it does appear that the results of it all will still bear fruit for the final days of Jan and hopefully well into Feb as the Ensembles are looking phenomenal in that regard. Ill take the wait and see approach but I believe the favorable pattern I see before me is for real.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Carte2
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Cdas-s10


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Post by Guest on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:58 pm

Scott thanks for the analysis and I love you brother. No sarcasm here but your last few sentences have been typed by countless Mets an inordinate amount of times this EFFIN winter. I will believe it when I see it because SOMETHING unforseen will surely go wrong

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Post by lglickman1 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:51 pm

Is there anything else in the horizon storm-wise?

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Post by Guest on Thu Jan 17, 2019 7:54 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Is there anything else in the horizon storm-wise?

Yes but Does it matter? They don’t work out anyway

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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:13 pm

Holy!

Look at the +PNA/-EPO/-NAO/-AO on the GFS for next weekend. If the ridging goes poleward as shown, there is a GREAT chance of a coastal storm. As you know I have preferred this time period over this weekend because the pattern is much more conducive for a Godzilla to occur.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Gfs_z500a_namer_33

Storm signal on the 25th-26th is real. That will be the next one to watch.

Then look what the GFS does February 1st. The high latitude blocking becomes VERY EXTREME. The PV is forced into New England shocked shocked

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Gfs_z500a_namer_44

Very fun times ahead !!!

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:27 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Holy!

Look at the +PNA/-EPO/-NAO/-AO on the GFS for next weekend. If the ridging goes poleward as shown, there is a GREAT chance of a coastal storm. As you know I have preferred this time period over this weekend because the pattern is much more conducive for a Godzilla to occur.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Gfs_z500a_namer_33

Storm signal on the 25th-26th is real. That will be the next one to watch.

Then look what the GFS does February 1st. The high latitude blocking becomes VERY EXTREME. The PV is forced into New England  shocked  shocked

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Gfs_z500a_namer_44

Very fun times ahead !!!

I hope so Frank! Fingers crossed!!
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Post by lglickman1 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:28 pm

With the PV over NE won't that suppress storms to the south, or not necessarily?

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Post by crippo84 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:29 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Holy!

Look at the +PNA/-EPO/-NAO/-AO on the GFS for next weekend. If the ridging goes poleward as shown, there is a GREAT chance of a coastal storm. As you know I have preferred this time period over this weekend because the pattern is much more conducive for a Godzilla to occur.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Gfs_z500a_namer_33

Storm signal on the 25th-26th is real. That will be the next one to watch.

Then look what the GFS does February 1st. The high latitude blocking becomes VERY EXTREME. The PV is forced into New England  shocked  shocked

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Gfs_z500a_namer_44

Very fun times ahead !!!

The PV squashed that far south - that doesn't scream a threat of suppression even with the aforementioned signals? That seems about as cold/dry as it could get but I'm obviously just taking what I learn from you guys!
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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:33 pm

Yes the PV that far south would shred southern stream energy but it does not mean it can't snow from vorticity spiraling around the PV itself. But I'm not buying into the blocking being that anomalous yet. It is a very interesting signal for sure. Luckily, the storm threat on the 26th does not look like suppression to me.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:39 pm

Now the GEFS agree with the OP on a major -NAO developing. YES

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Tumblr_nkgkcywOtB1une17mo1_500

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:08 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Now the GEFS agree with the OP on a major -NAO developing. YES

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Tumblr_nkgkcywOtB1une17mo1_500

Frank are you trying to suck us back in????? you know what they say about a woman scorned.... Razz
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Post by mwilli5783 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:32 pm

frank....sometime next week after storm#2 leaves.....i think ure gonna say "the m word"....

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Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Jan 18, 2019 3:11 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Holy!

Look at the +PNA/-EPO/-NAO/-AO on the GFS for next weekend. If the ridging goes poleward as shown, there is a GREAT chance of a coastal storm. As you know I have preferred this time period over this weekend because the pattern is much more conducive for a Godzilla to occur.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Gfs_z500a_namer_33

Storm signal on the 25th-26th is real. That will be the next one to watch.

Then look what the GFS does February 1st. The high latitude blocking becomes VERY EXTREME. The PV is forced into New England  shocked  shocked

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Gfs_z500a_namer_44

Very fun times ahead !!!

I greatly appreciate the good news Frank...

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 14 Fwit7q

If there is another ride available on this crazy train, I am coming aboard.

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:42 pm

Not getting sucked in
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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:09 pm

WOW the ENS and OP packages are sicker than sick for the next 10 days as the Troposphere and Stratospheric Vortexes come together.
The blocking is insane and any storm will be brought to an almost crawl.

People will be crying Uncle for the cold that looks to brutalize the Midwest to east coast regions upcoming!

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Post by lglickman1 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:39 pm

Question is will there be any moisture to work with

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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:15 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Question is will there be any moisture to work with

Yes with a basin wide Nino yes and a stj  yes and a warm is Atlantic yes.

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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:17 pm

PV lobe that gets discharge into the Midwest and then the NE has lows in the negative 30''s to teens. 
I am not posting maps for the fear of panic!!

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Jan 18, 2019 8:22 pm

amugs wrote:PV lobe that gets discharge into the Midwest and then the NE has lows in the negative 30''s to teens. 
I am not posting maps for the fear of panic!!
Aww come on mugs we want to see and I have a question if it's that cold will it snow?
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Post by Guest on Sat Jan 19, 2019 2:18 pm

Don't look now, but the Euro is toying with you long term yet again with a huge storm around the 28th.

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