Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

[amugs]

The EPO is there but we need the PNA ridge axis and I talked about this is banter to be more east than off the WC as Frank showed, we need it 500 miles more east or we get inland runners and then the PV drops in behind it or its too flat coming out and they slide south.
This pattern has been the same since early Dec and you know that nature loves to lock in patterns. We need NAO help or the WC ridge to slide further east east .

From JB and Scot brought this up about the MJO and where teh convection is - and it isnt suppose to dry out over the warm phases until.............next week now - for the love of god it was to be a slingshot run through these phases for 3-5 days now were are up to 10 days






This though this jet streak looks good to me for Sunday into Monday on the GEFS overall - needs some work though




Need about 100 miles more south for my liking at this stage for everyone here to see snow


The Best storms pop up within the 5 day range so holding out over the next two days for this Sunday into Monday event.

As one met said we keep saying 7 days it will change adn the other factors come into play and squash us - ala the dismal winter 11-12 winter

[dkodgis]

Short long range: I notice lots of rain Wed and Thurs (am). I also notice that Thursday could be what...50 degrees? I guess this all is the new normal.

n-o-r-m-a-l

I don't wanna believe it

[amugs]

Short long range:  I notice lots of rain Wed and Thurs (am). I also notice that Thursday could be what...50 degrees?  I guess this all is the new normal.

n-o-r-m-a-l

I don't wanna believe it

For this winter so far yes, not the overall.

[sroc4]

EPS the cold is here

No offense to you or any of the experts, but these maps a week or more out have become meaningless this winter.

No offense taken. There has been a lot of “the boy who cried wolf this winter”. But make no mistake the wolf is out there. Maybe he shows up maybe he won’t. But the pattern is fundamentally different from the December pattern even if the results haven’t been. If timing is right good things can happen.  Even though there are fundamental changes that are favorable there are still residual unfavorable drivers, the MJO, that have an influence.  I’d be willing to bet that if the pattern we have was set up in late December most of everyone would be very excited at the prospects despite not being perfect. Unfort it’s the end of Jan and we’ve been burned several times so far so the hesitance is real. Myself included.  We wait. I’m ready to accept what ever fate MN has for me. I’ve had 6 consecutive seasons of AN snowfall. Something has to give. If people want to turn it in and give up I get it. But I’m not turning my back just yet

[Irish]

Possible storms for January 29th and February 1-3?

[sroc4]

Possible storms for January 29th and February 1-3?

The upper levels have the ingredients. They just need to come together. Unfort the MJO will be in phase 5-6 which is going to put up resistance. Meaning...the set up needs to be perfect. It’s a “don’t hold your breath” type of winter.

[nutleyblizzard]

Possible storms for January 29th and February 1-3?

The upper levels have the ingredients. They just need to come together.  Unfort the MJO will be in phase 5-6 which is going to put up resistance. Meaning...the set up needs to be perfect. It’s a “don’t hold your breath” type of winter.

The MJO is killing us. If I have to see Amy Freeze dressed up like a supermodel forecast another flood watch, I'm gonna lose it.

[weatherwatchermom]

Possible storms for January 29th and February 1-3?

The upper levels have the ingredients. They just need to come together.  Unfort the MJO will be in phase 5-6 which is going to put up resistance. Meaning...the set up needs to be perfect. It’s a “don’t hold your breath” type of winter.

COME ON!!! I WILL FINISH IN PLAY PEN

[Radz]

Possible storms for January 29th and February 1-3?

The upper levels have the ingredients. They just need to come together.  Unfort the MJO will be in phase 5-6 which is going to put up resistance. Meaning...the set up needs to be perfect. It’s a “don’t hold your breath” type of winter.

Long range threats are way too volatile - seems like (as has been said), until we are in the 5 day or closer range, its not even worth looking at. We need one to deliver soon...

[Frank_Wx]

Possible storms for January 29th and February 1-3?

The upper levels have the ingredients. They just need to come together.  Unfort the MJO will be in phase 5-6 which is going to put up resistance. Meaning...the set up needs to be perfect. It’s a “don’t hold your breath” type of winter.

The  MJO is killing us. If I have to see Amy Freeze dressed up like a supermodel forecast another flood watch, I'm gonna lose it.

Possible storms for January 29th and February 1-3?

The upper levels have the ingredients. They just need to come together.  Unfort the MJO will be in phase 5-6 which is going to put up resistance. Meaning...the set up needs to be perfect. It’s a “don’t hold your breath” type of winter.

COME ON!!! I WILL FINISH IN PLAY PEN

Crack me up

[Frank_Wx]

The NAO might be the only signal that could combat the very fierce PAC. I do not think Paul disagrees with you there. I think his point is we should be looking for improvements in the PAC instead of focusing on the NAO region.

The PAC jet retraction is a positive first step. But it's coming at a time when the MJO is also propagating through phases 4-5-6. Our timing this winter has been impeccably bad.

[SENJsnowman]

No offense taken. There has been a lot of “the boy who cried wolf this winter”. But make no mistake the wolf is out there. Maybe he shows up maybe he won’t. But the pattern is fundamentally different from the December pattern even if the results haven’t been. If timing is right good things can happen.  Even though there are fundamental changes that are favorable there are still residual unfavorable drivers, the MJO, that have an influence.  I’d be willing to bet that if the pattern we have was set up in late December most of everyone would be very excited at the prospects despite not being perfect. Unfort it’s the end of Jan and we’ve been burned several times so far so the hesitance is real. Myself included.  We wait. I’m ready to accept what ever fate MN has for me. I’ve had 6 consecutive seasons of AN snowfall. Something has to give.  If people want to turn it in and give up I get it. But I’m not turning my back just yet

I'm right here with you Scott (I'm a low value add, but I can help lift heavy things and I'm good with a broom, etc...).

Of course, December-January will have a huuuuuuuuuuuuuge negative impact on my winter grade...don't see it getting past a regular B in the best case, and even a B at this point would take like 2-3' of snow the rest of the way.

But, at the end of the day, I'd rather have a winter with one or two nice storms in it than zero. I'm kind of in sleep mode right now...but it won't take much till the snow dork in me awakes!

[heehaw453]

Euro guidance is suggesting another cutter next Wednesday and then Arctic literally drops into the area. You guys the know the deal heavy rain followed by flash freeze.

I commend all those that still have belief in AN snowfall this year.

[sroc4]

Euro guidance is suggesting another cutter next Wednesday and then Arctic literally drops into the area. You guys the know the deal heavy rain followed by flash freeze.

I commend all those that still have belief in AN snowfall this year.

Yes it may appear that way at the surface.  But its an operational run 5-7days out.  Like last week around this time the model showed an early phase which led to a cutter soln similar to the 19th-20th storm last week. Recall however as we got closer the trend was for a much later phase.  The problem with that system, however, ended up being that by not phasing this southern system, which had a source region in the deep south, it did not have a strong enough cold source.  And the push of cold air from the north was week because of a lack of a -EPO.  Combined with an MJO that was emerging out into phase 4, we had a push of warm air from the SSE up against a weak push from the NNW to a system that was warm from the start.  Notice all the blues over West Canada and Alaska which indicates a positive EPO signal.  






In contrast to last weeks setup, at least as is currently being modeled, notice there is a much more robust -EPO signal as indicated by all the reds in the same region asd noted above:



You can see verbatim we get an early phase which results in a cutter.  The ridge axis is a little too far west off the coast and the center of the PV is a tad too far west as well.  




With still very different run to run placements and strength of all the energy in the upper levels I wouldnt take anything serious anyway.  BUT there are a few things this go around that could be in our favor which they werent last week.  The system that we have been watching for sunday to monday has never had my interest as a real threat, and it still doesnt, however, it may just set up as a kind of 50/50 low to our NE in some capacity that combined with a stronger cold push from a -EPO could end up leading things to be different this time.  Also the MJO last week was emerging out of phase 8 and the null phase into phase 4 as this system was developing(good phase to bad phase); whereas this one is forecasted to be transitioning from phase 6 to 7(bad phase decent phase).  

If your gun shy to buy it I get it.  Im really not trying to sell anything anyway, but there is no way we are getting out of this winter without a big storm.  Not with the changes that have occurred.  We just need timing to be right.  This set up although there are similarities is different from prev events, is different.  Obviously that doesnt mean the result cant still be the same as we have seen.  So if you choose to turn your back and not get sucked in I dont blame you.  BUT if the models start showing godzilla in the coming days and you feel the need to make a post stating that "you are not going to get sucked in", chances are you already are.  lol

We TRACK!!  

[weatherwatchermom]

Euro guidance is suggesting another cutter next Wednesday and then Arctic literally drops into the area. You guys the know the deal heavy rain followed by flash freeze.

I commend all those that still have belief in AN snowfall this year.

Yes it may appear that way at the surface.  But its an operational run 5-7days out.  Like last week around this time the model showed an early phase which led to a cutter soln similar to the 19th-20th storm last week. Recall however as we got closer the trend was for a much later phase.  The problem with that system, however, ended up being that by not phasing this southern system, which had a source region in the deep south, it did not have a strong enough cold source.  And the push of cold air from the north was week because of a lack of a -EPO.  Combined with an MJO that was emerging out into phase 4, we had a push of warm air from the SSE up against a weak push from the NNW to a system that was warm from the start.  Notice all the blues over West Canada and Alaska which indicates a positive EPO signal.  






In contrast to last weeks setup, at least as is currently being modeled, notice there is a much more robust -EPO signal as indicated by all the reds in the same region asd noted above:



You can see verbatim we get an early phase which results in a cutter.  The ridge axis is a little too far west off the coast and the center of the PV is a tad too far west as well.  




With still very different run to run placements and strength of all the energy in the upper levels I wouldnt take anything serious anyway.  BUT there are a few things this go around that could be in our favor which they werent last week.  The system that we have been watching for sunday to monday has never had my interest as a real threat, and it still doesnt, however, it may just set up as a kind of 50/50 low to our NE in some capacity that combined with a stronger cold push from a -EPO could end up leading things to be different this time.  Also the MJO last week was emerging out of phase 8 and the null phase into phase 4 as this system was developing(good phase to bad phase); whereas this one is forecasted to be transitioning from phase 6 to 7(bad phase decent phase).  

If your gun shy to buy it I get it.  Im really not trying to sell anything anyway, but there is no way we are getting out of this winter without a big storm.  Not with the changes that have occurred.  We just need timing to be right.  This set up although there are similarities is different from prev events, is different.  Obviously that doesnt mean the result cant still be the same as we have seen.  So if you choose to turn your back and not get sucked in I dont blame you.  BUT if the models start showing godzilla in the coming days and you feel the need to make a post stating that "you are not going to get sucked in", changes are you already are.  lol

We TRACK!!  

Thank you Scott for taking the time to analyze the next possible threat and always injecting a touch of humor! As you know..all of us snow weenies are on edge..thank goodness the play pen is available for rants and I have many closets in the house to clean out...lol...glass half empty the weather sucks!! glass half full- I am ahead on my schedule of getting the closets done

[sroc4]

Euro guidance is suggesting another cutter next Wednesday and then Arctic literally drops into the area. You guys the know the deal heavy rain followed by flash freeze.

I commend all those that still have belief in AN snowfall this year.

Yes it may appear that way at the surface.  But its an operational run 5-7days out.  Like last week around this time the model showed an early phase which led to a cutter soln similar to the 19th-20th storm last week. Recall however as we got closer the trend was for a much later phase.  The problem with that system, however, ended up being that by not phasing this southern system, which had a source region in the deep south, it did not have a strong enough cold source.  And the push of cold air from the north was week because of a lack of a -EPO.  Combined with an MJO that was emerging out into phase 4, we had a push of warm air from the SSE up against a weak push from the NNW to a system that was warm from the start.  Notice all the blues over West Canada and Alaska which indicates a positive EPO signal.  






In contrast to last weeks setup, at least as is currently being modeled, notice there is a much more robust -EPO signal as indicated by all the reds in the same region asd noted above:



You can see verbatim we get an early phase which results in a cutter.  The ridge axis is a little too far west off the coast and the center of the PV is a tad too far west as well.  




With still very different run to run placements and strength of all the energy in the upper levels I wouldnt take anything serious anyway.  BUT there are a few things this go around that could be in our favor which they werent last week.  The system that we have been watching for sunday to monday has never had my interest as a real threat, and it still doesnt, however, it may just set up as a kind of 50/50 low to our NE in some capacity that combined with a stronger cold push from a -EPO could end up leading things to be different this time.  Also the MJO last week was emerging out of phase 8 and the null phase into phase 4 as this system was developing(good phase to bad phase); whereas this one is forecasted to be transitioning from phase 6 to 7(bad phase decent phase).  

If your gun shy to buy it I get it.  Im really not trying to sell anything anyway, but there is no way we are getting out of this winter without a big storm.  Not with the changes that have occurred.  We just need timing to be right.  This set up although there are similarities is different from prev events, is different.  Obviously that doesnt mean the result cant still be the same as we have seen.  So if you choose to turn your back and not get sucked in I dont blame you.  BUT if the models start showing godzilla in the coming days and you feel the need to make a post stating that "you are not going to get sucked in", changes are you already are.  lol

We TRACK!!  

Thank you Scott for taking the time to analyze the next possible threat and always injecting a touch of humor!  As you know..all of us snow weenies are on edge..thank goodness the play pen is available for rants and I have many closets in the house to clean out...lol...glass half empty the weather sucks!! glass half full- I am ahead on my schedule of getting the closets done

You are very welcome Weathermom. And your post from earlier had me laughing out loud for real. I totally hear you though. And while I cant guarantee that the next few threats work out I can say Id be shocked if we dont get at least one to hit before winter is out. I just cant see a goose egg with the changes amiss and the apttern they way is is shaped up to be through Feb into March. I could be wrong. And while many who are well know winter weather lovers have already checked out and said bring on spring I know that most if not all of them will be right there when or IF we do finally get the goods.

[amugs]

Great analysis Scott.
The Frick ingredients GEFS I hope are on cracking cause after the PV sets up shop.over the GL and runs our storm south of us only hope the eis redevelopment off the coast, not a miller A set up unless......
The GEFS take the PV and once it slides up and out the EPO  AL moves East and a massive trough  from Cali upnthrough AK. If this isright, which this winter why wouldn't it be, just ends winter and bring an early spring. Possible yes but time will tell.
Can post a gift here but it shows the terrible.progression. Reminds me a lot of 86-87 when this happened to a degree

[heehaw453]

Great insights from the board as always. Been through too many bad winters to know when it doesn't want to snow it just doesn't, regardless of the setup. I for one haven't thrown in any towel, but remain very skeptical and will do so until goods are produced. I sure would be thrilled to be wrong about the remainder of this "winter"!

[Grselig]

Great analysis Scott.
The Frick ingredients GEFS I hope are on cracking cause after the PV sets up shop.over the GL and runs our storm south of us only hope the eis redevelopment off the coast, not a miller A set up unless......
The GEFS take the PV and once it slides up and out the EPO  AL moves East and a massive trough  from Cali upnthrough AK. If this isright, which this winter why wouldn't it be, just ends winter and bring an early spring. Possible yes but time will tell.
Can post a gift here but it shows the terrible.progression. Reminds me a lot of 86-87 when this happened to a degree

Wow. you remember that winter. I’m impressed! I was 17 and have no idea. I do remember 1978 and 1983.

[mwilli5783]

feb 8 1978 nyc 19 inches of snow got caught in that one.....

[Grselig]

feb 8 1978  nyc 19 inches of snow  got caught in that one.....

I know this does not belong in the thread so please move if appropriate.

I was 7 and it was memorable. In my “Christmas Story” snow suit i could barely walk.

[Frank_Wx]

My concern for next week, and Scott said it, is the ridge position. Can't have that off the coast. MJO in poor phases may make it difficult to push that ridge more east. We'll see...

[Frank_Wx]

The GFS Ensembles and EURO Ensembles are pointing to an arctic front passing through our area and dropping a few inches of snow.





As mentioned earlier in this thread we have extreme ridging developing in the eastern and northern Pacific. Look at the PV...it is southwest of the Hudson Bay in Canada and barreling toward the CONUS. Image valid the 29th:



Now check out what happens. The PV forces the front to drape across the Great Lakes into the mid-section of the country. Look how massive that PV is.



Once the front passes the PV is literally as far south as I have seen in a long time. I think Winter of 2014-2015





So what does this mean? With blocking developing over the Pacific - we are likely to see extreme cold return next week. There is the potential for snow, but I think it would be all northern stream driven. Meaning, it will be a light to moderate high ratio type of snowfall. But hopefully the PV does not squash this energy too much, or try to shear it out. Still some time to track this.

[amugs]

AND here we go - wish it were Sunday but the models are starting to catch onto a NAO block and with the EPO  and PV press we may have a legit snowstorm to end January - as Frank has pointed out this isn't a crap pattern but a legit pattern upcoming as the MJO dies off and into the COD and the down welling from the PV establishes itself over head in the way of blocks over the North Atlantic and Alaskan Region

EPS




WOW that Block in the EPO region is gonna pour down on us along with the PV:
Shades of 14-15 in Feb peeps

[amugs]

GEFS

[SoulSingMG]

Umm... Guys?

[heehaw453]

Umm... Guys?

The EPS definitely looks better each run. It's also pretty cold at the mid levels too. Hmm. Let's see what it looks like in two days.

FWIW, the operational buries NNE. Stowe VT is having some prolific snows this year.

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