Long Range Thread 18.0

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:32 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:And I'm not showing the snow map because it will change a million times lol

Oops.

Sorry SYO tongue Congrats beantown What a Face

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Those totals will press south and east
Or so we hope, but wow, that is a blizzard to remember if happened verbatim and looking at temps mainly snow even coast, which even the totals shown I would not be unhappy though i def would want to see 30 rather than 20 lol, not putting to much stock in it but wow what a run.
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Post by SoulSingMG on Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:33 pm

Okay I never really banter about my own plans so forgive me, but I am supposed to fly back into JFK Monday afternoon from Alberta. Any chance we can push this back 'til I land? Shocked
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Post by rb924119 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:34 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:And I'm not showing the snow map because it will change a million times lol

Oops.

Sorry SYO tongue Congrats beantown What a Face

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 3 94e88010

Those totals will press south and east

Careful here. Unlike the last system, there’s resistance this time; I just don’t know how much and its sourcing/orientation yet. I’ll comment further at some point between today and tomorrow, though. That said, resistance is good; it takes my ONLY worry with this system (suppression) out of the equation.

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:36 pm

Eps are very snowy

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:36 pm

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:41 pm

And look at that 32 line beautiful, I like the Euro 15:1 ratio map lol, any chance we see that? That pushes NYC into 30+ LOL

Holy cow just realized it snows there for more than 30 hrs!! If so thats pretty light snow unless its just very light then heavy then very light.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:44 pm

Shoooootttt, look out!! OMG I have never seen this kind of output.

the ice pushed south from last night and increased to a catesytrophic ampount verbatim but I never see that verifying.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 3 Ecmwf_15

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Post by SoulSingMG on Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:52 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Shoooootttt, look out!! OMG I have never seen this kind of output.

the ice pushed south from last night and increased to a catesytrophic ampount verbatim but I never see that verifying.

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Won't verify but wild map. I can't recall NYC/Long Island ever having a damaging ice storm. And where I'm from up in New Hampshire, we do not take 'ice storm' talk lightly lol
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Post by amugs on Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:02 pm

PV Down welling keep going so all the SPV cold and three headed beast will be affecting us come teh last week of January from the looks - this cold can be brutal:
https://twitter.com/Forecas55175638/status/1084538351150075904/photo/1

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:07 pm

A lot to be excited about but try to temper as much as you can until Tuesday. The effects of the sudden stratospheric warming that took place a couple of weeks ago is finally being seen. Extreme cold and extreme storms.

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:15 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:A lot to be excited about but try to temper as much as you can until Tuesday. The effects of the sudden stratospheric warming that took place a couple of weeks ago is finally being seen. Extreme cold and extreme storms.

thank you for being the parent in the room full of candy and cautioning your child not to eat too much!! Smile here's to exciting times ahead!! and hopefully some sugar/snow highs
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Jan 13, 2019 3:51 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:A lot to be excited about but try to temper as much as you can until Tuesday. The effects of the sudden stratospheric warming that took place a couple of weeks ago is finally being seen. Extreme cold and extreme storms.
Yep we need to give this a couple of days. A rule of thumb that I use is 7 days out entertainment purposes only, inside 5 days ok you got my attention, inside three 3 days sound the alarms! Frank this is a highly volatile situation. OPs are all over the place. What do we need to look for which would cause this threat to go awry?
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Post by Carvin on Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:10 pm

There seems to be. 3 to 4 snow chanes in the next 3 weeks one has to come around the bend

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:10 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:A lot to be excited about but try to temper as much as you can until Tuesday. The effects of the sudden stratospheric warming that took place a couple of weeks ago is finally being seen. Extreme cold and extreme storms.
Lets just hope they pan out and are not just "shown" thanks for the reminder. I am being hoopeful but with the reminder in the back of my head that if this ends up missing us or being a rainstorm or whatever not to get mad (hell I will try lol).
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:A lot to be excited about but try to temper as much as you can until Tuesday. The effects of the sudden stratospheric warming that took place a couple of weeks ago is finally being seen. Extreme cold and extreme storms.
Lets just hope they pan out and are not just "shown" thanks for the reminder.  I am being hoopeful but with the reminder in the back of my head that if this ends up missing us or being a rainstorm or whatever not to get mad (hell I will try lol).
This winter thus far has been testing our patience to say the least. I see the extreme solutions these models are coming out with and all I say is, "OK so what's going to screw this one up?" We need to wait until we get within the Euro's good range of inside 120 hours. Only then will my excitement levels start to rise.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:27 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:A lot to be excited about but try to temper as much as you can until Tuesday. The effects of the sudden stratospheric warming that took place a couple of weeks ago is finally being seen. Extreme cold and extreme storms.
Lets just hope they pan out and are not just "shown" thanks for the reminder.  I am being hoopeful but with the reminder in the back of my head that if this ends up missing us or being a rainstorm or whatever not to get mad (hell I will try lol).
This winter thus far has been testing our patience to say the least. I see the extreme solutions these models are coming out with and all I  say is, "OK so what's going to screw this one up?" We need to wait until we get within the Euro's good range of inside 120 hours. Only then will my excitement levels start to rise.
Agree, I kinda put my expectations for this winter aside and am focusing on other stuff, though for me once within 3 days maybe even 2 as things have gone wrong within 2 will I be stuck to the computer lol
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:50 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:And I'm not showing the snow map because it will change a million times lol

Oops.

Sorry SYO tongue Congrats beantown What a Face

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Beantown has had 0.2 inches of snow so far this entire season which came on November 15th when our area received 6-12, so if it happens they are due just like the rest of us.
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Post by algae888 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 4:56 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:And I'm not showing the snow map because it will change a million times lol

Oops.

Sorry SYO tongue Congrats beantown What a Face

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 3 94e88010

Beantown has had 0.2 inches of snow so far this entire season which came on November 15th when our area received 6-12, so if it happens they are due just like the rest of us.
All I know after seeing this map it can only go downhill from here
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:11 pm

Interesting changes with the latest GFS run. The cold vortex is pressing down more and the western ridge looks better. Awaiting to see the rest of the run.
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Post by hyde345 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:21 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Interesting changes with the latest GFS run. The cold vortex is pressing down more and the western ridge looks better. Awaiting to see the rest of the run.

Yup. Vastly different from 12Z. The snow totals on this will be insane.
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:24 pm

Big run by the GFS. Looks more like the EURO.
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Post by SoulSingMG on Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:26 pm

Oh. Hello.

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Post by lglickman1 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:29 pm

Any chance this storm would be suppressed the same as this weekends storm?

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:29 pm

The press is real my issue is its 6 days away and showing these big hits.
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:30 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Any chance this storm would be suppressed the same as this weekends storm?

Absolutely it can be with that press. I'm more concerned with suppression than cutter.
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