Long Range Thread 18.0

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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:43 pm

A lot times with CAD events the thermal profiles get too warm in the models. The mid levels can get attacked easier than the lower levels. And yes if the primary low cuts into the lakes and doesn't transfer quickly enough then we'll we taint much more quickly. But the lower levels much harder to warm and then you're susceptible to freezing rain especially inland. I don't underestimate 1040 high pressures as they're usually strong and stubborn. Should be interesting...

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Fri Feb 08, 2019 12:54 pm

12z UKIE looking very interesting for middle of next week.
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:01 pm

EURO came in a bit colder. A general 4-5 inches across the area before a change to sleet and rain.
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Post by Irish on Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:10 pm

For the Monday-Tuesday event, 24-36 hours ago the weather channel had the high on Tuesday near 40 for my area (Central Jersey). Now it's 35 with 3-5 inches of the white gold before changeover. Sounds like moving in the right direction to me!

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Post by Irish on Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:04 am

Woke up today to a changed forecast leaning to a warmer outcome and more rain then snow. Oh well, another one bites the dust.

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Post by docstox12 on Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:13 am

Irish wrote:Woke up today to a changed forecast leaning to a warmer outcome and more rain then snow. Oh well, another one bites the dust.

Yes, noticed that up here too.It was all snow to snow/sleet than back to snow.Now its snow to sleet to FR.That's been the pattern all winter, warmer solutions.
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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:39 am

I think ePA can do 3-5” snowfall between Sunday night and Tuesday morning. Could be significant icing after it taints which is greater concern. It most likely goes to rain though.

It’s after this that we have better chances. The cutter pattern has been relentless but mjo phase traversal supposed to help that.

Edit 3-5” might be better call attm.

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Post by crippo84 on Sat Feb 09, 2019 8:35 am

heehaw453 wrote:I think ePA can do 3-5” snowfall between Sunday night and Tuesday morning. Could be significant icing after it taints which is greater concern. It most likely goes to rain though.

It’s after this that we have better chances. The cutter pattern has been relentless but mjo phase traversal supposed to help that.

Edit 3-5” might be better call attm.

Now we may have to worry about lack of cold air no?
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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Feb 09, 2019 8:45 am

Cold air at surface will be plentiful especially away from the coast. How long do we hang on to the cold at the mid levels? Don’t know but I liked last night’s Euro run. A strong high pressure parked in Lower Quebec may surprise us with more cold than modeled.

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Post by crippo84 on Sat Feb 09, 2019 8:55 am

heehaw453 wrote:Cold air at surface will be plentiful especially away from the coast. How long do we hang on to the cold at the mid levels?  Don’t know but I liked last night’s Euro run.  A strong high pressure parked in Lower Quebec may surprise us with more cold than modeled.

Sorry I meant more for after this threat. Cold air seems to be lacking in our area afterwards as well.
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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:02 am

crippo84 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Cold air at surface will be plentiful especially away from the coast. How long do we hang on to the cold at the mid levels?  Don’t know but I liked last night’s Euro run.  A strong high pressure parked in Lower Quebec may surprise us with more cold than modeled.

Sorry I meant more for after this threat. Cold air seems to be lacking in our area afterwards as well.
Great question. Probably depends on MJO, blocking and EPO. I’m hopeful that things get exciting around here soon. Tempered hope.

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Post by Snow88 on Sat Feb 09, 2019 9:56 am

Nam has a little snow for Sunday night and then snow/sleet to a little rain with the bigger storm for mid week with a few inches of " frozen precip " for the coast with a little more inland.
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Post by dkodgis on Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:02 am

What I noticed about Tues temps is the day and night temps are mirroring each other. I see 25/25 and now 29/29 (showing a warming trend). I am surprised to see temps forecast that are so Frick 'n Frack.
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Post by billg315 on Sat Feb 09, 2019 11:41 am

Timing may be everything for impacts Tuesday as well. While both the GFS and NAM show a snow to frz/sleet to rain solution, the duration of frozen precip is fairly long and hits between about midnight and late morning/midday Tuesday. That means at the AM rush it may still be snowing or a mix of snow sleet and frz rain for many. By the time it goes to all rain the damage may be done (ie morning commute disrupted, schools closed etc). So even if you only get 2-4” on the front end then icing or sleet before being washed away by rain in the afternoon the timing may cause bigger problems.
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Post by amugs on Sat Feb 09, 2019 4:11 pm

At a wedding and NAM depicted a v-day special ala '06.
2-4" snow NNJ and then about 1" of sleet and their before a changeover and then temp crash after. Complex set up..
Need a thread,someone please  start one from sun through Tuesday.
Sun into Mom about 1" in NYC and 2-3" S of there.
Tuesday was looks to be earlier as they usually are like early am

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 7:27 am

SOI has crashed the 18th-22nd threat looks alive
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Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:12 am

Morning folks! Let's watch where we posts things. Keep this long range, any disussion for today and tomorrow should be in the other thread. Hoping next week it's clear by Friday so I don't have a canceled flight! lol

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Snowfall winter of 2018-2019      25.10"

Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:17 am

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 25 Eps_t210
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 25 Eps_t210
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 25 Eps_t211
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Post by sroc4 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 8:55 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:SOI has crashed the 18th-22nd threat looks alive





100% Skins.  Here is the snap shot of the equatorial Pac in the region the SOI is calculated at day five.  Between now and then the pressure anomalies cont to favor HP over Darwin relative to the LP over Tahiti.  Result is a net increase to westerly motion to the trade winds.  Something we have not had this winter.  It also looks to persist on the modeling for the following 5 days as well.  This is what we are supposed to have in an El Nino winter.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 25 Soi10


For the first time all winter the MJO and, ENSO (weak El Nino), look to align themselves as seen in the OLR maps.  You can see the center of the convection is now around the dateline or perhaps just west as of this am.  And you can see the connection of the Eq Pac convection and the STJ stream extending into the SW CONUS.  This is more typical of El Nino.  The cool colors indicate where the convection is.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 25 Daily_10
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 25 Phases10
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 25 Weekly10

But the forecasts from the MJO plots to the 200mb velocity potential maps conts to show the eastward propagation of this current MJO pulse into the phase 8-1-2 phases.   All things that tell me winter IS NOT OVER.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 25 200mb_11

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Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 3:38 pm

Really big changes at H5 on all guidance today with the SOI tanking and the mjo in Phase 8 in 2 days we may have a prolonged period Of winter weather not all systems will be all out snowstorms but we should see more wintry precipitation to end the month
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Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Feb 11, 2019 6:04 pm

Mugs and Scott, I am having trouble viewing your graphics.. not sure if you are posting from mobile and if that makes a difference...

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Snowfall winter of 2018-2019      25.10"

Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
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Post by sroc4 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 9:06 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Mugs and Scott, I am having trouble viewing your graphics.. not sure if you are posting from mobile and if that makes a difference...

I think it has to do with the browser your viewing it through.  Try safari or chrome. I posted it from my PC. Ironically when I preview it before posting I can’t see the images either through IE browser. But I can see the images through my iPhone or if I open the site in chrome on my PC

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:36 pm

Those are snowy runs on the globals tonight icon GFS in CMC three systems after this one in the next 10 days
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Feb 12, 2019 4:41 am

SOI -23
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Post by algae888 on Tue Feb 12, 2019 5:21 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:SOI -23
Skins did you happen to see the global models last night very snowy runs for us next one misses us to the South Saturday Follow by 1 Sunday night into Monday and then one more Tuesday into Wednesday fun times ahead maybe we can salvage this winter
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