NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Long Range Thread 18.0

+48
Roger92
Quietace
GreyBeard
mmanisca
oldtimer
Dunnzoo
Irish
snowday111
brownie
Grselig
Zhukov1945
Snow88
crippo84
bobjohnsonforthehall
Scullybutcher
dkodgis
Smitty623
snowlover 12345
heehaw453
dsix85
jimv45
Math23x7
sroc4
aiannone
Vinnydula
Sanchize06
SENJsnowman
emokid51783
HectorO
lglickman1
Carvin
nutleyblizzard
SoulSingMG
hyde345
docstox12
amugs
algae888
Radz
CPcantmeasuresnow
skinsfan1177
billg315
rb924119
weatherwatchermom
mwilli5783
jmanley32
adamfitz1969
frank 638
Frank_Wx
52 posters

Page 4 of 36 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 20 ... 36  Next

Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:29 pm

The press is real my issue is its 6 days away and showing these big hits.

skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4485
Join date : 2013-01-07

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:30 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Any chance this storm would be suppressed the same as this weekends storm?

Absolutely it can be with that press. I'm more concerned with suppression than cutter.

skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4485
Join date : 2013-01-07

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by frank 638 Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:30 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Oh. Hello.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Ec56ef10
oh please please let this happened

frank 638
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2814
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 40
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by billg315 Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:31 pm

So on the GFS we have a Friday event (minor) and a Sunday-Monday event (major). A lot of details to be worked out. But as Frank has been saying, the temps with and behind this storm are real cold. Highs maybe not breaking 20* on Monday.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by hyde345 Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:38 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Oh. Hello.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Ec56ef10

I know it's only for fun at this point but you can probably add a few more inches to those totals as it's still snowing at hour 174.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:38 pm

billg315 wrote:So on the GFS we have a Friday event (minor) and a Sunday-Monday event (major). A lot of details to be worked out. But as Frank has been saying, the temps with and behind this storm are real cold. Highs maybe not breaking 20* on Monday.

Correct and storms behind major one
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:40 pm

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Gfs_as11
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by SoulSingMG Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:44 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Gfs_as11

Was just about to post this haha. That is a 31 right over my parents in NH! Lol
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2853
Reputation : 74
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Long Island City, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by hyde345 Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:45 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Gfs_as11

Yikes!! GFS and Euro coming in with big numbers. I know its still 6-7 days away but damn.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by mwilli5783 Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:49 pm

taking a wait n see approach on the storm by wednesday we should know

mwilli5783

Posts : 146
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-01-23
Age : 69
Location : hempstead n.y

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:59 pm

Not being a downer just being honest those SNOWMAP will not hold for 6/7 days
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by hyde345 Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:10 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Not being a downer just being honest those SNOWMAP will not hold for 6/7 days

That may certainly be true and it is 6 days away but both latest GFS and Euro show similar numbers and last night's CMC did as well. It's not like there is just one model that is an outlier and everything else shows something completely different. The potential is there for something very significant next weekend.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by HectorO Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:20 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Not being a downer just being honest those SNOWMAP will not hold for 6/7 days

Even now the temps aren't looking so great. Looks more like rain
HectorO
HectorO
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 959
Reputation : 27
Join date : 2013-01-11

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:28 pm

Frank is killing me lmao

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by nutleyblizzard Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:36 pm

GFS Para has come in and trended colder too. It shows sleet turning into snow.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by lglickman1 Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:40 pm

is there something more encouraging set up wise that would make us think it should be cold enough and not suppressed? Seems like the this weekend's storm was never a good set up from the start, models never really showed anything good. Could this set up be different for the better?

lglickman1
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 319
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : New Rochelle, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:52 pm

Oh 18z GFS you so perfect, beautiful run!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by HectorO Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:54 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:GFS Para has come in and trended colder too. It shows sleet turning into snow.

The models during the 27th- new year prediction of a colder and wintry weather pattern never really caught up and I guess it was for a good reason too since that change didn't happen. I guess we'll have to wait a few more days to see if the forecast catches up or not. As of right now, it looks too warm to stay snow.
HectorO
HectorO
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 959
Reputation : 27
Join date : 2013-01-11

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:59 pm

where do i sign.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Fv3p_a10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by hyde345 Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:04 pm

HectorO wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:GFS Para has come in and trended colder too. It shows sleet turning into snow.

The models during the 27th- new year prediction of a colder and wintry weather pattern never really caught up and I guess it was for a good reason too since that change didn't happen.  I guess we'll have to wait a few more days to see if the forecast catches up or not. As of right now, it looks too warm to stay snow.


Not true for a good portion of this board. Still too early to look closely at thermal profiles in detail but don't underestimate cold air anchored north of us.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1082
Reputation : 48
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by rb924119 Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:06 pm

jmanley32 wrote:where do i sign.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Fv3p_a10

Some is sleet, so take some off of those max values lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 6887
Reputation : 194
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 32
Location : Greentown, Pa

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:10 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:where do i sign.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Fv3p_a10

Some is sleet, so take some off of those max values lol
I would give up 10 inches and still be happy lol
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:10 pm

Comes on the lunar eclipse
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by emokid51783 Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:22 pm

My onky worries with these models is if it gets more Gucci Mane (Icy) and less Jeezy (the snowman). I forsee some late night tracking this week...

emokid51783

Posts : 144
Reputation : 5
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 40
Location : Jersey City Heights, NJ

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Frank_Wx Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:46 pm

It is important to keep an eye on Friday's storm too. This weak system dampens heights enough to bring down a fresh batch of cold air in time for the Sunday storm. If this storm doesn't exist then it runs the risk of warmer scenarios for Sunday. But if it is too strong it pushes the baroclinic zone too far to the south and east which would keep the Sunday storm to our south

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21303
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:51 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:It is important to keep an eye on Friday's storm too. This weak system dampens heights enough to bring down a fresh batch of cold air in time for the Sunday storm. If this storm doesn't exist then it runs the risk of warmer scenarios for Sunday. But if it is too strong it pushes the baroclinic zone too far to the south and east which would keep the Sunday storm to our south

Frank what's your take on the pv press on each GFS ensemble run its has got stronger each time is that concern you at all. Your take on this thank you
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:26 pm

No No No, we cannot have suppression again, i swear if VA and NC get 20 to 40 inches of snow I will scream and you all will hear it lol, please if this goes wrong let it be something other than suppression, i cant believe we are already bringing that up, it means its a done deal. ray I thought you said that or hinted at that not being an issue?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 4 of 36 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ... 20 ... 36  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum