Long Range Thread 18.0

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Post by frank 638 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:30 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Oh. Hello.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Ec56ef10
oh please please let this happened

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Post by billg315 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:31 pm

So on the GFS we have a Friday event (minor) and a Sunday-Monday event (major). A lot of details to be worked out. But as Frank has been saying, the temps with and behind this storm are real cold. Highs maybe not breaking 20* on Monday.
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Post by hyde345 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:38 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:Oh. Hello.

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I know it's only for fun at this point but you can probably add a few more inches to those totals as it's still snowing at hour 174.
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:38 pm

billg315 wrote:So on the GFS we have a Friday event (minor) and a Sunday-Monday event (major). A lot of details to be worked out. But as Frank has been saying, the temps with and behind this storm are real cold. Highs maybe not breaking 20* on Monday.

Correct and storms behind major one
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:40 pm

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Gfs_as11
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Post by SoulSingMG on Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:44 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Gfs_as11

Was just about to post this haha. That is a 31 right over my parents in NH! Lol
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Post by hyde345 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:45 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Gfs_as11

Yikes!! GFS and Euro coming in with big numbers. I know its still 6-7 days away but damn.
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Post by mwilli5783 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:49 pm

taking a wait n see approach on the storm by wednesday we should know

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 5:59 pm

Not being a downer just being honest those SNOWMAP will not hold for 6/7 days
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Post by hyde345 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:10 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Not being a downer just being honest those SNOWMAP will not hold for 6/7 days

That may certainly be true and it is 6 days away but both latest GFS and Euro show similar numbers and last night's CMC did as well. It's not like there is just one model that is an outlier and everything else shows something completely different. The potential is there for something very significant next weekend.
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Post by HectorO on Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:20 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Not being a downer just being honest those SNOWMAP will not hold for 6/7 days

Even now the temps aren't looking so great. Looks more like rain
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Post by rb924119 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:28 pm

Frank is killing me lmao

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:36 pm

GFS Para has come in and trended colder too. It shows sleet turning into snow.
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Post by lglickman1 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:40 pm

is there something more encouraging set up wise that would make us think it should be cold enough and not suppressed? Seems like the this weekend's storm was never a good set up from the start, models never really showed anything good. Could this set up be different for the better?

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:52 pm

Oh 18z GFS you so perfect, beautiful run!
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Post by HectorO on Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:54 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:GFS Para has come in and trended colder too. It shows sleet turning into snow.

The models during the 27th- new year prediction of a colder and wintry weather pattern never really caught up and I guess it was for a good reason too since that change didn't happen. I guess we'll have to wait a few more days to see if the forecast catches up or not. As of right now, it looks too warm to stay snow.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 6:59 pm

where do i sign.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 4 Fv3p_a10
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Post by hyde345 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:04 pm

HectorO wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:GFS Para has come in and trended colder too. It shows sleet turning into snow.

The models during the 27th- new year prediction of a colder and wintry weather pattern never really caught up and I guess it was for a good reason too since that change didn't happen.  I guess we'll have to wait a few more days to see if the forecast catches up or not. As of right now, it looks too warm to stay snow.


Not true for a good portion of this board. Still too early to look closely at thermal profiles in detail but don't underestimate cold air anchored north of us.
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Post by rb924119 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:06 pm

jmanley32 wrote:where do i sign.

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Some is sleet, so take some off of those max values lol

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:10 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:where do i sign.

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Some is sleet, so take some off of those max values lol
I would give up 10 inches and still be happy lol
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:10 pm

Comes on the lunar eclipse
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Post by emokid51783 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:22 pm

My onky worries with these models is if it gets more Gucci Mane (Icy) and less Jeezy (the snowman). I forsee some late night tracking this week...

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:46 pm

It is important to keep an eye on Friday's storm too. This weak system dampens heights enough to bring down a fresh batch of cold air in time for the Sunday storm. If this storm doesn't exist then it runs the risk of warmer scenarios for Sunday. But if it is too strong it pushes the baroclinic zone too far to the south and east which would keep the Sunday storm to our south

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:51 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:It is important to keep an eye on Friday's storm too. This weak system dampens heights enough to bring down a fresh batch of cold air in time for the Sunday storm. If this storm doesn't exist then it runs the risk of warmer scenarios for Sunday. But if it is too strong it pushes the baroclinic zone too far to the south and east which would keep the Sunday storm to our south

Frank what's your take on the pv press on each GFS ensemble run its has got stronger each time is that concern you at all. Your take on this thank you
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:26 pm

No No No, we cannot have suppression again, i swear if VA and NC get 20 to 40 inches of snow I will scream and you all will hear it lol, please if this goes wrong let it be something other than suppression, i cant believe we are already bringing that up, it means its a done deal. ray I thought you said that or hinted at that not being an issue?
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