Long Range Thread 18.0

Page 32 of 36 Previous  1 ... 17 ... 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36  Next

Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by dkodgis on Thu Feb 28, 2019 1:45 pm

It does look like the polar vortex is giving us the cold shoulder next week. Cold enough for next week but if I correctly read things in posts, it is wait and see 24 hours out. By the way, has anyone noticed the board's search feature is not working?
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 847
Reputation : 60
Join date : 2013-12-29

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by hyde345 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:15 pm

dkodgis wrote:It does look like the polar vortex is giving us the cold shoulder next week.  Cold enough for next week but if I correctly read things in posts, it is wait and see 24 hours out. By the way, has anyone noticed the board's search feature is not working?

Its still 3+ days out but you are far enough north and west that you are in a pretty good spot to get mostly snow from this the way it looks right now. In and around NYC metro is really dicey at this point.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 684
Reputation : 30
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jimv45 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:19 pm

Hyde its early but i would bet on another slop fest even up here. We know the drill by now.

jimv45
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1021
Reputation : 30
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : dutchess county ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by hyde345 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:57 pm

jimv45 wrote:Hyde its early but i would bet on another slop fest even up here. We know the drill by now.

Yeah, I think north of 84 looks like mostly snow with a possible mix. We shall see.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 684
Reputation : 30
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by heehaw453 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 2:58 pm

Euro 12Z didn't take a step back.  in fact it got somewhat more encouraging.  It's still the western flank of the guidance though.

Ensembles




heehaw453

Posts : 418
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by sroc4 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:16 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Euro 12Z didn't take a step back.  in fact it got somewhat more encouraging.  It's still the western flank of the guidance though.

Ensembles




Unfort it did take a tick back in the wrong direction at 500. TPV tad N again, like yesterday, and our system has trended stronger as it exits the Rockies and enters the plains. Taking into acct the warmer waters off the SE coast this makes sense as does the westward track via higher heights out ahead of the stronger system.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6233
Reputation : 246
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 3:57 pm

Please let this fork put for at least the 287 area in Westchester I want a snow day lol
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15701
Reputation : 78
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by heehaw453 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 4:00 pm

Sroc that is a good point on the TPV and to be honest the Euro has been pretty amped up for quite some time, so westerly track would make more sense. I don't see it cutting inland and think it'll hug the coast at worst. Unfortunately that'll be bad for most.

It's quite possible that most on here see more snow before Sunday night than from the Sunday night storm.




heehaw453

Posts : 418
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:32 pm

Bah that sucks, ok move onto spring, bye winter. And of course its going to be frigid right after our pouring rain monday. Gee that hasnt happened at all this year. I just pray that the 15th is a permenant warm up and 80s in March sounds great, someone mentioned that back.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15701
Reputation : 78
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by algae888 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 5:38 pm

I think the system we have to watch is the one on Saturday that may end up being the more snowy and strong one. It will also help Tren the Sunday night Monday system further south and snowier if Saturday system is stronger. models are all over the place with this take a look at the latest GFS andn rgem
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4940
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 56
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by amugs on Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:46 pm

WELL WE DID IT!!!
THE WHOLE MONTH OF FEB W/OUT A SUNSPOT
Daily Sun: 28 Feb 19


The sun is blank--no sunspots. Credit: SDO/HMI



Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 28 Feb 2019

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 28 days
2019 total: 43 days (73%)

Ramifications = the winters in the USA, Eastern Europe and Asia have experienced have been off some chart for cold and snowfall no not just your or mine back yards but the bigger picture of the=is macrocosm of a planet.
The Upper Atmosphere is the coldest it has been since NASA kept records - 1955 from what I have researched. Long time - absolutely not in the time continuum.
Higher Geomagnetic activity and longer winters - doesn't equal higher snowfall BUT the chances increase.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10172
Reputation : 155
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by amugs on Thu Feb 28, 2019 6:52 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Bah that sucks, ok move onto spring, bye winter.  And of course its going to be frigid right after our pouring rain monday. Gee that hasnt happened at all this year.  I just pray that the 15th is a permenant warm up and 80s in March sounds great, someone mentioned that back.

Are you kidding with this "I just pray that the 15th is a permanent warm up and 80s in March sounds great, someone mentioned that back." Skins made mentioned of this, his lives at the shore about 80 miles South of you. You do realize you live in the mid latitudes and our weather/climate is not conducive for this pattern. The pattern does not support 80's from what I see, you have to go to June for this temperature permanency and STOP rushing the season let the seasons be the seasons. March fluctuates and may you see a 70* day possibly but 80* .............

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10172
Reputation : 155
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by heehaw453 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:15 pm

algae888 wrote:I think the system we have to watch is the one on Saturday that may end up being the more snowy and strong one. It will also help Tren the Sunday night Monday system further south and snowier if Saturday system is stronger. models are all over the place with this take a look at the latest GFS andn rgem

That system on Saturday may drop a foot on southern New England. Might be road trip time.

heehaw453

Posts : 418
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:22 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
algae888 wrote:I think the system we have to watch is the one on Saturday that may end up being the more snowy and strong one. It will also help Tren the Sunday night Monday system further south and snowier if Saturday system is stronger. models are all over the place with this take a look at the latest GFS andn rgem

That system on Saturday may drop a foot on southern New England.  Might be road trip time.  

Yeahhh. Saturday is a growing snow threat, even for us!
SoulSingMG
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2593
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by heehaw453 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:27 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:
algae888 wrote:I think the system we have to watch is the one on Saturday that may end up being the more snowy and strong one. It will also help Tren the Sunday night Monday system further south and snowier if Saturday system is stronger. models are all over the place with this take a look at the latest GFS andn rgem

That system on Saturday may drop a foot on southern New England.  Might be road trip time.  

Yeahhh. Saturday is a growing snow threat, even for us!

Yeah. I’m getting disinterested with Sunday night honestly. Many times it’s what the models don’t pick up on that rock. See tomorrow but unfortunately looks like SNE is the zone. Easy ride up there so that’s good.

heehaw453

Posts : 418
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by amugs on Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:29 pm

New thread started ON Saturday Coastal. Move all discussion  to there.please..
Sunday well.look at after Saturday storm, could have very big implications on Sunday storm so let's take it one storm at a time.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10172
Reputation : 155
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by heehaw453 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:01 pm

NAM has 3” tonight for my area. I’ll expect a coating.

heehaw453

Posts : 418
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:29 pm

i hope we get a delay tomorrow but need a bit more than a coating as we had that this morning,
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15701
Reputation : 78
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 37
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by heehaw453 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:20 pm

And the 0z gfs fv3 with an outside of BM track dropping 10 inches of snow on Sunday night for a lot of folks. I’ve had enough for today. Good luck to us all!

heehaw453

Posts : 418
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by heehaw453 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:41 am

Euro is really nice now for epa. Marginal but MUCH better run on 0Z. I would take blend of gfs and euro in terms of track. Imo euro track starting to be aligned with other guidance

heehaw453

Posts : 418
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by algae888 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:12 am

Night shift South en East and weaker on the euro another tick or twi and most of us will be in the ball game for a moderate snow storm. The most encouraging news about all these systems is that they will be happening mainly at night so we don't have to deal with the dreaded March Sun angle
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4940
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 56
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by heehaw453 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:52 am

GFS is an absolute crusher on Sunday night for most people on this forum.





heehaw453

Posts : 418
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:54 am

Wow at the 12z GFS, really strengthens this system, big snowstorm for most

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 896
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:58 am


Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 896
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by heehaw453 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:05 am

The GFS Para is even a better mauling. I wouldn't even look at what the precip type shows.  My guess this a blue bomb for most based on track and intensification. We shall see how this plays out...


heehaw453

Posts : 418
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 32 of 36 Previous  1 ... 17 ... 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum