Long Range Thread 18.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Mar 04, 2019 1:38 pm

amugs wrote:Green Snow? If this happens th elikly hood goes up!
And where the hell where you all winter - OY VEY!!
Oh and before this Friday and next Tuesdayish




Mugs I didnt even see you had this posted yetserday. Great minds

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"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by amugs on Mon Mar 04, 2019 6:09 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Green Snow? If this happens th elikly hood goes up!
And where the hell where you all winter - OY VEY!!
Oh and before this Friday and next Tuesdayish




Mugs I didnt even see you had this posted yetserday.  Great minds

Scott NP my man - the Italian connection!!
When everyone was going crazy about the storm I saw this and said HMMMMMM this look like we can get ourselves one more before CP goes into hibernation!! Laughing Laughing Laughing

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by SENJsnowman on Tue Mar 05, 2019 1:11 pm

I see big differences in the 500mb look for Saturday in the GFS vs the Nam. Nam builds a much higher steeper ridge over the northern rockies and high plains than the does much flatter GFS. As a result Nam gives much colder air to work with. And a little more storm, too.

Will try to diagram what I am seeing. Have a small window of time here to do this...brb I hope...

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by SENJsnowman on Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:14 pm

Let’s start with the GFS...it has no storm and if anything rain thru most of coastal NJ.



But most of the models show some kind of light precip over southern NJ for late Friday evening/early Sat morning.

Despite the 540 mb line being located well to the south, the GFS still shows mixing issues at the coast.



And this is supported by a look at 2m air temps...right warm on the coast.




The big question for me is, why does the GFS again have a very warm look for southern NJ?

And, I think answer lie in the fact that as a nice would-be blocking high moves out to sea on Friday, the sourcing of the air switches from cold West-Canada air to warm SW CONUS air, thus bringing surface temps above freezing.

Let's start the analysis with a look at what our air source looks like right now on the GFS. Notice the high pressure center sittin dead in the middle of the country.



And as a result, we are enjoying very cold air at the moment. Perhaps even the coldest air presently on the planet!

The 500mb look shows how nicely the arctic air is getting diverted right towards the NE:



Notice how the high is keeping that warmer air flowing to our south.

And our present 2m temps reflect this.



Now look at the same guidance as the system approaches.
At the surface, we see the HP once again centered in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean (far right of the pic, east of OBX).



And now look at our air source...it's no longer Arctic by any stretch. It's actually cool Pac NW air that is warmed as it is dragged thru the warmer climates and then briefly cooled up north. But you can also clearly that without that high pressure, the warm air to the south easily commingles with the mildy cold air source.



That is a warm look..from the GFS.

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by SENJsnowman on Tue Mar 05, 2019 2:51 pm

And now look at the NAM surface map for Sat 00z. What's that HP center doing in Kalamazoo? And lookey how it splits the airflow, keeping the tri-state area under a Canadian air source.



Looking at the 500 level, notice how far north the air source climbs through cold air, before then of course, diving right back down thru that same cold as it descends our way.



And so, of course we get a colder surface solution.



Also a wider precip shield...maybe due to more extreme air temps mixing at the frontal boundary?

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by GreyBeard on Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:11 pm

"And as a result, we are enjoying very cold air at the moment. Perhaps even the coldest air presently on the planet!"


Where are you posting from, Antarctica? Suspect

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by SENJsnowman on Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:20 pm

GreyBeard wrote:"And as a result, we are enjoying very cold air at the moment. Perhaps even the coldest air presently on the planet!"


Where are you posting from, Antarctica? Suspect

Nope.


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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by GreyBeard on Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:25 pm

There's a big difference between the most below average and the coldest air on the planet, don't you think?

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by SENJsnowman on Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:35 pm

"Below-Average U.S. Temperatures Among the Coldest in World Right Now
The arctic cold temperatures in the U.S. are some of the coldest temperatures globally right now."

Posted DIRECTLY above your last quote, Graybeard.

One of thing I've learned (admittedly the hard way) is how hard it can be to graciously bow out of a failed mission.

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by GreyBeard on Tue Mar 05, 2019 5:52 pm


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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:31 pm

gonna have to side with greybeard here in terms of how you put it SENJ, below normal isnt the same as colest temperatures, your very smart I read your analysis so I do not quite understand why you would have written that.
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:32 pm

GreyBeard wrote:There's a big difference between the most below average and the coldest air on the planet, don't you think?
100% correct. Not sure how that could be mistaken even by a novice which neither of you are.
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by SENJsnowman on Tue Mar 05, 2019 8:57 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
gonna have to side with greybeard here in terms of how you put it SENJ, below normal isnt the same as colest temperatures, your very smart I read your analysis so I do not quite understand why you would have written that.

Appreciate that jman.

These words are written clearly on the bottom of that headline:

"Below-Average U.S. Temperatures Among the Coldest in World Right Now
The arctic cold temperatures in the U.S. are some of the coldest temperatures globally right now.
"

So, yeah, if you ONLY look at the headline, it's misleading. But if you look at all of the info on the graphic, it says exactly what I said it says.

I'm equally as perplexed as why that is hard to see/read/grasp/separate from the headline. ???

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by dkodgis on Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:16 pm

Speaking about the long range, it is always Viva Las Vegas kind of thing. We can get snow of course and it can be intense, or we can uncover the deck furniture on April 15 and go for it. Here is my question: in a month, will the warmer/wetter pattern continue and for how long?
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by dkodgis on Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:19 pm

I forgot to add this to the long range thread. I saw a robin today.
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by amugs on Wed Mar 06, 2019 12:55 pm

We went 33 straight days with no sun spots and now have a mini spot but it is one to say the least
Spotless Days
2019 total: 48 days (75%) so far wow!

BIG CH = geomagnetic issue seismological speaking ahead

and so it starts the bring back of winter on the great ST Paddy Day and teh PNA spike lasts possibly until teh end of the month dropping the trough into the Eact Coast - where the hell where you all JAN and FEB!!!!



This is the result of the big SOI drop this past two/three weeks and finally the central based nino forcing taking over

MJO hangs in cold phase






PNA


Storm possibilities are there peeps and spring = delayed by these looks at this time.

Nothing we can do but embrace it - we have more snow in March than our true Meteorological winter 12/1 to 3/1

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Snow88 on Wed Mar 06, 2019 8:33 pm

amugs wrote:We went 33 straight days with no sun spots and now have a mini spot but it is one to say the least
Spotless Days
2019 total: 48 days (75%) so far wow!

BIG CH = geomagnetic issue seismological speaking ahead

and so it starts the bring back of winter on the great ST Paddy Day and teh PNA spike lasts possibly until teh end of the month dropping the trough into the Eact Coast - where the hell where you all JAN and FEB!!!!



This is the result of the big SOI drop this past two/three weeks and finally the central based nino forcing taking over

MJO hangs in cold phase






PNA


Storm possibilities are there peeps and spring = delayed by these looks at this time.

Nothing we can do but embrace it - we have more snow in March than our true Meteorological winter 12/1 to 3/1

PNA going positive
EPO falling
AO falling
New Moon

Something big might be on the horizon
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by essexcountypete on Thu Mar 07, 2019 7:18 am

dkodgis wrote:I forgot to add this to the long range thread. I saw a robin today.

On Monday, right after the storm, about 20 robins showed up in our big holly tree to meal out on holly berries. The next morning, there were a dozen very fat robins on the sunny flat roof on the back of my house. Apparently one of the two goshawks that reside in the cemetery across the street also took note of the robins. I went to the shed to put my shovels away yesterday morning, and I turn around to walk out and not six feet in front of me the goshawk lands with a robin in it's claws. It stood there for about 30 seconds until it saw me, then took off with the robin and left a cloud of feathers.

[sorry, this should have been in banter]
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Snow88 on Sat Mar 09, 2019 10:17 am

PNA still looks great as we head into mid March
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by sroc4 on Sat Mar 09, 2019 11:32 am

Snow88 wrote:PNA still looks great as we head into mid March

Agreed. As long as the current trends cont we will most likely be tracking at least 1-2 more snow chances. Big or small, interior coast all still up in the air but someone on this board should see snow

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Mar 09, 2019 5:55 pm

Look at that ridge out west
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Irish on Sat Mar 09, 2019 9:42 pm

I'm seeing all warm temps on TWC. Or is that because it's too far out?

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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Grselig on Sun Mar 10, 2019 9:28 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Look at that ridge out west

Time frame is the 20th so it’s pretty far out for any forecast. But there is at least potential.
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by billg315 on Sun Mar 10, 2019 11:59 am

Irish wrote:I'm seeing all warm temps on TWC.  Or is that because it's too far out?

This coming 5-7 day period is pretty warm, or at least normal-to-above. It’s the week beyond that where there is good potential for below normal, colder air to set up shop for a few days.
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Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Mar 10, 2019 1:51 pm

billg315 wrote:
Irish wrote:I'm seeing all warm temps on TWC.  Or is that because it's too far out?

This coming 5-7 day period is pretty warm, or at least normal-to-above. It’s the week beyond that where there is good potential for below normal, colder air to set up shop for a few days.
Can the coastal areas or even 15-20 miles inland see any meaningful snow, i mean yes it has happened but with day light savings and sun angle I would think it would have to all fall at night and be heavy. Honestly I would rather spring come, but if we can get one really good storm I will wait. Hoping by april we go into full spring.
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