Long Range Thread 18.0

Page 35 of 36 Previous  1 ... 19 ... 34, 35, 36  Next

Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Mar 10, 2019 5:59 pm

WowzaaLong Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Gem_z510
a PNA
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4344
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 41
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by amugs on Sun Mar 10, 2019 8:52 pm

This is a nice signal for next week this far out.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Img_2035

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10250
Reputation : 158
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by aiannone on Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:34 pm

GFS has been consistent on popping a little low up on Monday. Euro has it too albeit a bit weaker
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 4378a610
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3738
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by heehaw453 on Tue Mar 12, 2019 3:48 pm

I think that clipper is the best shot at a few inches before snow books are closed for most. It appears there will be an ocean storm but well offshore for the 3/20-3/21 time frame, but I'd give that a few days though before completely dismissing it as we all know how reliable models are at this range.

heehaw453

Posts : 418
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by billg315 on Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:46 pm

aiannone wrote:GFS has been consistent on popping a little low up on Monday. Euro has it too albeit a bit weaker
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 4378a610

Yeah I've been watching that too. That Clipper may produce some snow, but I'm keeping my enthusiasm in check because Clippers traditionally underperform anyway, and adding to that, unfortunately temps don't appear to be that cold and it looks like a daytime event. At this time of year that probably equals some wet snow on the grass and wet pavements. I doubt the snow with that clipper will get heavy enough to overcome sun angle issues.

Heehaw is right about the 20-21. It bears watching because it does look like something tries to organize off the coast around then -- and we will have (somewhat) cold air in place -- but the current guidance keeps the development well off the coast.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2767
Reputation : 145
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 45
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by heehaw453 on Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:47 am

That ocean storm is interesting for 3/21-ish.  

Ridge in west is too far east, but trough tilt looking better as it tries to back up the flow towards the coast. The energy shown here is just too far off the coast to have significant impact here.  But you'd notice a much more northerly movement with that tilt. Just get that energy about 200 miles closer to coast which to me is about consolidation of the energy and don't string it out like it being shown now on most guidance.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 3-13-210

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 3-13-211

heehaw453

Posts : 418
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:46 am

heehaw453 wrote:That ocean storm is interesting for 3/21-ish.  

Ridge in west is too far east, but trough tilt looking better as it tries to back up the flow towards the coast. The energy shown here is just too far off the coast to have significant impact here.  But you'd notice a much more northerly movement with that tilt.  Just get that energy about 200 miles closer to coast which to me is about consolidation of the energy and don't string it out like it being shown now on most guidance.

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 3-13-210

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 3-13-211

Also there could be work can be done with that Ridge at West sharpen it up a little bit to
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4344
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 41
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by billg315 on Thu Mar 14, 2019 9:08 am

Monday Clipper is still a possibility, but the only place I think you'd have any actual accumulation might be in the Hudson Valley. Elsewhere I think any snow that falls will mostly melt on contact as it is a daytime event with temps at or above freezing for many.

Problem right now with the 20-21st is, it looks like High Pressure sets up perfectly to keep the northern energy to our north and force the southern energy out to sea. Odds don't look good for that event now.

After next Wednesday, it looks like most of the area doesn't drop below freezing again at night before we head into April. Spring is fast approaching.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2767
Reputation : 145
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 45
Location : Somerville, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by heehaw453 on Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:01 pm

billg315 wrote:Monday Clipper is still a possibility, but the only place I think you'd have any actual accumulation might be in the Hudson Valley. Elsewhere I think any snow that falls will mostly melt on contact as it is a daytime event with temps at or above freezing for many.

Problem right now with the 20-21st is, it looks like High Pressure sets up perfectly to keep the northern energy to our north and force the southern energy out to sea. Odds don't look good for that event now.

After next Wednesday, it looks like most of the area doesn't drop below freezing again at night before we head into April. Spring is fast approaching.

Any coastal storm on the 3/20 is looking very bleak right now. I agree a post mortem on the winter is coming soon. When does board have winter grades thread? Very nice to see different perspectives on it. After that it will be hibernation for me until winter decides to come back to us.

heehaw453

Posts : 418
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by docstox12 on Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:21 pm

It sure as heck not going to repeat last March from what I am seeing.Maybe a surprise 2 or 3 inch event in there before the party ends.At this juncture, I'm around 10 inches short of normal up here so I have this winter as a D.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6669
Reputation : 166
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 68
Location : Monroe NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by amugs on Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:50 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Monday Clipper is still a possibility, but the only place I think you'd have any actual accumulation might be in the Hudson Valley. Elsewhere I think any snow that falls will mostly melt on contact as it is a daytime event with temps at or above freezing for many.

Problem right now with the 20-21st is, it looks like High Pressure sets up perfectly to keep the northern energy to our north and force the southern energy out to sea. Odds don't look good for that event now.

After next Wednesday, it looks like most of the area doesn't drop below freezing again at night before we head into April. Spring is fast approaching.

Any coastal storm on the 3/20 is looking very bleak right now.  I agree a post mortem on the winter is coming soon.  When does board have winter grades thread?  Very nice to see different perspectives on it.  After that it will be hibernation for me until winter decides to come back to us.

I concur - with no blocking just the PNA alone isnt going to do it. No N NAO or AO help. And yes e do have a Post Mortem Grade the winter thread we''l start next week.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10250
Reputation : 158
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by dkodgis on Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:32 am

Yesterday it reached 72, and it was a glorious day

It was all for naught for in a dream last night, CP appeared at a Pharaoh of ancient Egypt stating "So let it be written, so let it be said ('Damian, are you writing this?') that winter is over-and I am exiling myself to my spring retreat until the next flake".

dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 930
Reputation : 63
Join date : 2013-12-29

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by dkodgis on Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:56 pm

Hmmm...I’m hearing chatter that this coming Thurs eve could become...interesting?
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 930
Reputation : 63
Join date : 2013-12-29

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:13 pm

dkodgis wrote:Hmmm...I’m hearing chatter that this coming Thurs eve could become...interesting?

You're not wrong. But it looks more wet than white. But your area specifically could see some snow. We'll keep an eye on it

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18662
Reputation : 276
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 27
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Mar 17, 2019 9:14 pm

The pattern next week looks quite warm. +NAO/-PNA...bring it on

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18662
Reputation : 276
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 27
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by dkodgis on Mon Mar 18, 2019 10:19 am

I am going to guess, uneducatedly, that because ocean temps are warmer than usual we will see a warmer spring.  Maybe it is because of a -PNA too. What do the great minds of the board see coming?
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 930
Reputation : 63
Join date : 2013-12-29

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by amugs on Mon Mar 18, 2019 11:25 am

21-22nd looking interesting for NWNJ and HV at this time. NYC no and metro area but could be a spring snow for the other areas. Accumulated snows all depend on various factors but plenty of cold air to tap to th North in SE Can.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10250
Reputation : 158
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by aiannone on Mon Mar 18, 2019 4:42 pm

Euro is quite interesting for Friday Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 91a2b810
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3738
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by frank 638 on Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:13 pm

aiannone wrote:Euro is quite interesting for Friday Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 91a2b810
Lee Goldberg did say Thursday we are having a coastal storm with a raw windy rainy conditions for the coast possibly mixed with wet snow in the interior

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1939
Reputation : 24
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 36
Location : bronx ny

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:15 pm

Hear is Upton take on Thursday night and through Friday coastal system.....

The current forecast is calling for all rain Thursday into
Thursday night with a possible mix of snow early Thursday
morning across western portions of Orange County should the
precipitation arrive early enough. This would not amount to
much. The concern is that should a more amplified, dynamic
system be closer to the coast, flags for a heavy wet snow event
will need to be raised. The good news though is that we are not
there yet.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4958
Reputation : 38
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 57
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:18 pm

The good news is we are only a tick or two away from a major Coastal storm. If that 2nd shortwave over Ontario phases in 6 to 12 hours earlier it would be a paste bomb for us
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4958
Reputation : 38
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 57
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:20 pm

There are several gefs members with a sub 990 low at the benchmark the euro is 978 just east of Cape Cod but phases too late last night and today's runs are the first run showing this so is this a trend or just a blip we shall see
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4958
Reputation : 38
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 57
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Mar 18, 2019 5:21 pm

Also we have to watch early next week after a brief warm up this weekend with temperatures around 60 which is not too far above normal there's going to be some bitterly cold air just to our North pressing down as a closed low rolls across the South Central US. winter does not want to give up even though many of us think it never started
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4958
Reputation : 38
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 57
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:17 pm

algae888 wrote:Also we have to watch early next week after a brief warm up this weekend with temperatures around 60 which is not too far above normal there's going to be some bitterly cold air just to our North pressing down as a closed low rolls across the South Central US. winter does not want to give up even though many of us think it never started

A high of 60 is about 10 degrees above normal this time of year Al, and that's in the urban areas. Lets not push winter out any faster than we have to. Like you say, it feels like it never really got going.

Anyway I appreciate the update on the upcoming possibilities. I had almost begun my hibernation a tad to early. Hoping for one of the famous Al 4:00am alerts that things are trending positively. I've missed those this year.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6192
Reputation : 203
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 57
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Historical thread

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by amugs on Mon Mar 18, 2019 8:39 pm

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 FIRST_CALL.png.1316351b015ba3a54ac39e499832a5dc

JB's map and it is a horse hair away from shifting that blue SE.
This has the marking of a major Nor'easter and we need a quicker phase to bomb this out for us from NYC and NNJ into LHV.

Massive ridge over the Rockies
Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Gfs_z500a_namer_9

Also watch out for teh 28-29th time frame for another possible coastal and interior paste job

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10250
Reputation : 158
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Long Range Thread 18.0 - Page 35 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 18.0

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 35 of 36 Previous  1 ... 19 ... 34, 35, 36  Next

Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum