Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System

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Post by amugs on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:34 pm

Folks,

Lets start the thread and see what comes about but this is look good at this juncture 96 hours out:

EPS - honking on this
Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System X5c3d34419726f.thumb.png.90ac746a86a746972565f20270b43958.png.pagespeed.ic.YG2QoaKAMu

A nice 2-3" rush hour headache and D.O. for schools - Delayed Openings.

Oh and they will pour gallons upon gallons of brine and pounds of salt on the roads.

This system will set up our weekend system.

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Post by amugs on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:35 pm

LR SREFS

Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System X5c3d407c43a13.thumb.png.6872bd2cfef19053ce2017a5caccdf44.png.pagespeed.ic.JknUc2OcGg

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Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:38 pm

0z NAM rolling now
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Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:43 pm

Looks cold
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Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:45 pm

Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System 0z11
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Post by amugs on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:48 pm

NAM don't toy with me and nail this one for us!??
Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50

Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_51

Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_52

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Post by amugs on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:51 pm

If that is correct it is a good look

Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System Namconus_temp_adv_fgen_850_us_51

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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:51 pm

Yeah. This could be a nice surprise. 0Z NAM cold at mid levels and even surface. 2-4" not out of the question.

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Post by aiannone on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:51 pm

1-2" area wide on the NAM
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Post by billg315 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:55 pm

NAM seems consistent with last GFS runs as well. I think this system brings us a good shot of snow between midnight and 7 or 8 am. Won’t be heavy but with the ground below freezing and it coming in at night when temps will be cold I think even a light to moderate snow for several hours can get us 2 or 3” right into the AM rush. Also part of this wave originated off the Pacific coast and comes east from the Plains (maybe pick up a little Gulf moisture?). I like that look better than clippers diving south from Alberta that tend to be moisture starved.
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Post by billg315 on Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:59 pm

We all know from November that it doesn’t take a ton of snow to cause some headaches if timing is right. This could be right around the AM rush.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:53 am

billg315 wrote:We all know from November that it doesn’t take a ton of snow to cause some headaches if timing is right. This could be right around the AM rush.
yeah but unlike Nov at least here like someone said if there's a shot of a flurry we have more Salk accumulation than snow this year. The roads are white with salt for a while now and not even any real rain. Isn't that stuff bad for the environment? They better watch it or watch they run out just before a big late season storm.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:56 am

And I would most definitely look forward to a delay Friday though my early intervention school doesn't start until 9am for the kids but some come from far so it all depends on the busses and their decision.
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Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:24 am

NAM is all snow but lighter amounts (about an inch area wide). GFS has a little more moisture but ends it as rain after daybreak. I’m still thinking a couple inches is doable with this.

JMan, the way they close schools today I would never rule out a delay for even a minor system like this. Lol. When I was a kid needed at least 4 or 5” to close or delay. A 1-2” snow meant walking to school in the snow. Uphill. Man, now I sound old. Haha.
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Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:25 am

And I’ve wondered the same thing about all this salting of roads for no apparent reason since the Nov 15 storm: If we have a March-April like last year will they have any salt/brine left?
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Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:38 am

Here is the GFS upper air map valid Thursday night. Notice the potent southern stream energy over Tennessee.

Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System Gfs_z500_vort_us_12

Fast forward to Friday morning and this same energy is sheered out off the coast of Delaware, and there is some northern stream energy (very weak) also sweeping through. That is your clipper at the surface.

Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System Gfs_z500_vort_us_14

The northern energy is a bit more robust on the NAM

Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System Namconus_z500_vort_us_52

It looks like a C-2" type of event. We will see if it trends stronger over the next 2 days, but the fast pace of the flow would suggest the answer is no. There is no blocking. Also notice, as this storm trended weaker our coastal storm on Sunday trended more west / warmer. There is a legitimate reason for that...

Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System Namconus_asnow_neus_28

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Post by amugs on Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:50 am

How come no GFS SNOW MAP at 6Z- has Mikey gotten to you LOL!!

Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System Gfs_asnow_neus_16

2-3/4" certainly possible in the hills of NNJ and LHV/HV.

RGEM - shows a 1-3" for the same areas I mentioned above, City is coating

Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System PT_PN_072_0000

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by amugs on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:13 am

6Z Euro compliments of AllSnow 33&rain
Colder
Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System 9F082B8A-6D36-4C5B-99B6-E6C15697F312.png.c3238a97cfdb738ed03fd61d6fdc8bb3

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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:14 am

The fun starts:
Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System StormTotalSnowWeb

Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System Image.thumb.png.efe97f74f80930d5d8cea18d5595b5c1

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:17 am

amugs wrote:6Z Euro compliments of AllSnow 33&rain
Colder
Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System 9F082B8A-6D36-4C5B-99B6-E6C15697F312.png.c3238a97cfdb738ed03fd61d6fdc8bb3

It will be a decent event for those N&W of NYC. For the city itself and the coastal plain not so much.

But at least it is something.

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Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:22 am

Yeah, I think my bias on this is that my area is solidly going to be in the 1-3" category, but I could see where, as Frank points out, the immediate coast and city proper don't get much.
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Post by amugs on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:47 am

billg315 wrote:Yeah, I think my bias on this is that my area is solidly going to be in the 1-3" category, but I could see where, as Frank points out, the immediate coast and city proper don't get much.
Absolutely. 2-4" NWNJ, LHV and EPA and 1-3" NNJ

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Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:48 am

Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System 411ff810
Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System 14c01b10
Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System A4a2de10
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Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:51 am

12z NAM all snow event from about midnight Thursday to midday Friday. Generally 1-3” in NJ although closer to just an inch on immediate coast and NYC proper.
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Post by Guest on Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:06 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
amugs wrote:6Z Euro compliments of AllSnow 33&rain
Colder
Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System 9F082B8A-6D36-4C5B-99B6-E6C15697F312.png.c3238a97cfdb738ed03fd61d6fdc8bb3

It will be a decent event for those N&W of NYC. For the city itself and the coastal plain not so much.

But at least it is something.

I’ve been logged off but following due to my INSANE ANGER AND FRUSTRATION AT THIS WINTER. This threat and Franks comment just cements my decision. This is a joke and trending weakened which screws us for the weekend. But it’s coming.....

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