Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System

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Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:29 am

The 12z NAM was all snow for the area. A general 1-2"

Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System - Page 2 Namconus_asnow_neus_27


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Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:38 pm

18z NAM very weak for the thursday night-fri storm. Bodes well for the weekend i believe
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Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:44 pm

aiannone wrote:18z NAM very weak for the thursday night-fri storm. Bodes well for the weekend i believe

It does not

But it's ok - the changes happening in the Pacific are more important than any trends that happen with this Clipper.

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Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:45 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:
aiannone wrote:18z NAM very weak for the thursday night-fri storm. Bodes well for the weekend i believe

It does not

But it's ok - the changes happening in the Pacific are more important than any trends that happen with this Clipper.

Ohh, so we want a stronger system?
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Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:46 pm

And BTW the 18z NAM was all snow NNJ, NYC, LI
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Post by Guest on Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:49 pm

aiannone wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
aiannone wrote:18z NAM very weak for the thursday night-fri storm. Bodes well for the weekend i believe

It does not

But it's ok - the changes happening in the Pacific are more important than any trends that happen with this Clipper.

Ohh, so we want a stronger system?

Stronger system drags the baroclinic zone further south. That’s what we want

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Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:53 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
aiannone wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:
aiannone wrote:18z NAM very weak for the thursday night-fri storm. Bodes well for the weekend i believe

It does not

But it's ok - the changes happening in the Pacific are more important than any trends that happen with this Clipper.

Ohh, so we want a stronger system?

Stronger system drags the baroclinic zone further south. That’s what we want

Makes sense! thanks for the explanation
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Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:00 pm

0z nam running for thursday night-friday now
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Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:23 pm

Jeez nam is very different. barely gets snow in for friday lol
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Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:38 pm

Ultimately looks roughly unchanged. About a 1-2” event for most.
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:38 pm

Nan looks good

url=https://servimg.com/view/19365188/413]Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System - Page 2 Namcon13[/url]
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Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:40 pm

all snow again
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Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:42 pm

Looks like about 10 hours of light snow, maybe with a heavier burst or two at times. The light nature will keep totals down but with frozen ground everything that falls is sticking from the get-go.
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Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:47 pm

So NAM is consistently all snow and GFS is consistently all rain for the entire area except extreme NNJ
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Post by billg315 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:52 am

6z NAM and GFS both have more moisture with this. NAM is all snow and actually gets almost 3” in parts of far NWNJ/NEPA. GFS is snow for a few hours for everyone at start but ends as rain after daybreak in the city and along the coast while staying snow N and W. Still looks like a general 1-2”with some morning commute issue particularly N and W of the city.
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Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:06 am

Here is Uptons take on this system.  Yest they called for a change over for plain rain "for coastal sections" whereas this am they word it as "far eastern sections".  

Fast moving system via the southern branch of the jet stream will
provide a taste of winter to begin the period. In general good model
agreement with precip timing, with the NAM still dragging its heels
a bit with precip onset. Ptype looks to be mainly snow through
Thursday night with a change over for to plain rain for far eastern
sections perhaps just before 12z Fri.  The timing works out that the
Friday morning commute will be impacted to some degree with cold
ground temperatures to start so snow should stick on most surfaces.
For now thinking a general 1 to 2 inch snowfall, with less than an
inch far east, and perhaps in the 2 to 3 inch range in far
northwestern sections.
The lift is not impressive with this system
as the southern branch energy is not consolidated well as there is
little backing in the mid levels to support liquid precipitation
amounts over a quarter inch.  Therefore it makes sense that the
modeling by and large has lowered its QPF output over the past
couple of runs.  The precipitation will change to plain rain as
warmer air noses in from the southeast in the lower levels during
Friday morning before it moves out shortly thereafter.  Most places
should completely dry out by the late morning and towards lunch time
on Friday, with high pressure to follow briefly for Friday night into
early Saturday.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by Guest on Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:23 am

I disagree Scott. They are still calling for a change to rain and a rainy morning except for N and W

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Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:31 am

syosnow94 wrote:I disagree Scott. They are still calling for a change to rain and a rainy morning except for N and W

Ummmmmm a sphincter says what?  12z Friday is about 7am.  So with the exception of far eastern zones as stated Upton is calling for light snow to fall until approx. that time.  By then the bulk of whats falling from this system, which isnt much QPF, is likely done.  You read it differently?  


Fast moving system via the southern branch of the jet stream will
provide a taste of winter to begin the period. In general good model
agreement with precip timing, with the NAM still dragging its heels
a bit with precip onset. Ptype looks to be mainly snow through
Thursday night with a change over for to plain rain for far eastern
sections perhaps just before 12z Fri.
The timing works out that the
Friday morning commute will be impacted to some degree with cold
ground temperatures to start so snow should stick on most surfaces.
For now thinking a general 1 to 2 inch snowfall, with less than an
inch far east, and perhaps in the 2 to 3 inch range in far
northwestern sections.
The lift is not impressive with this system
as the southern branch energy is not consolidated well as there is
little backing in the mid levels to support liquid precipitation
amounts over a quarter inch.  Therefore it makes sense that the
modeling by and large has lowered its QPF output over the past
couple of runs.  The precipitation will change to plain rain as
warmer air noses in from the southeast in the lower levels during
Friday morning before it moves out shortly thereafter.  Most places
should completely dry out by the late morning and towards lunch time
on Friday,

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by Guest on Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:39 am

I read the last few sentences as a change to rain. Hopefully I’m wrong and by the time it does there’s not much qpf left

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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:41 am

The appetizer - and last night as I pointed out the trough sharpened at the 500mb level which is better for the storm - gonna surprise a few folks.

John Elliot just said this morning on 101.1 CBS radio - I think 2-3" for NNJ Suburbs with a possibly change to icy mix as yuo get closer to teh city and eastern LI would change to rain.

This s scalled CAD at work here folks and just wait till Monday morning - YIKES!!

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Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:38 pm

My first snow map of the winter season for an innocent little clipper. I am going to keep the SCI at 30% for NYC to see at least 1" of snow.

Thurs/Fri 1/17 -18 Clipper System - Page 2 Clipper

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Post by Guest on Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:08 pm

If that’s gonna be the case for me Frank then Can Inpass?

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Post by Guest on Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:09 pm

No dessert unless you have your supper first, Syo.

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Post by Guest on Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:10 pm

TheAresian wrote:No dessert unless you have your supper first, Syo.

Supper? This is like a half of of cracker

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Post by Guest on Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:13 pm

Just look at it like you're saving space for later.

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