JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:26 pm

First image is showing where the N energy is as well as the southern energy. As you can see our system is still way out over the Pac Ocean, the energy of which doesn't come ashore for about 36-48hrs or so. Notice where the N energy is located. It still has to journey even further N before rounding the N aspect of the TPV before beginning its journey into central Canada by hr 84 indicated by the yellow x's over the black line.

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT Ecmwf_49

Next Id like to point out that we are still 4 days away and we currently still have changes occurring at H5 from model to model as well as within individual models meaning there is still plenty of time for a trend to cont both favorably as well as unfavorably. Below is simply the diff between 00z Euro and the most recent 12z. I will say three things. First, one run does not make a trend; however, the Ukie, while likely over correcting S&E might be onto something. Second, I do not believe that what I saw at H5 on the 12z Euro matches the surface at all so while we are seeing shifts at H5 you must take the surface with a large grain of salt as they often take time to catch onto the changes aloft. The third point I will make below, so look at the image comparisons Ive illustrated below until you come to my third point.

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT Ecmwf_50
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT Ecmwf_51

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT Ecmwf_52
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT Ecmwf_53

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT Ecmwf_54
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT Ecmwf_55

So my third point is that the changes aloft are a diff of only 12hrs in the timing/arrival of the N energy. IF we cont to see a mere 12 hr delay in the arrival of the N vort(esp this), and/or weaker S energy, and/or a further S track to the S energy; even the coastal plain COULD be in the game for moderate to significant snowfall, both front end and back end. Again one run does not make a trend, but there is some support from Ukie, and GEFS and there is still 4days away. I am not giving up just yet and you shouldn't either. The back end snow possibility for the coastal plain is real. As Rb has mentioned there is a very steep temp gradient such that if the wave of LP passes far enough S&E (likely needs to be S of LI somewhere) while we may start as snow and change to rain, if the phase is right and the track is right there could be a very quick burst of heavy snowfall on the back end.

Could it be a trend weaker with the PNA ridge might actually help us and be what we want?? It slows the speed of the northern vort into the conus; therefore, delays the phase for us. Syo/Jimmy I just read your last comment on the LR thread and I think your hitting the nail on the head.

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by amugs on Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:34 pm

Excellent write up and analysis here.
Sroc 1994 MLK storm type set up in the works with that very cold arctic air pressing in or rushing as this storm is ending.

Fun Tracking times ahead no doubt!!

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:36 pm

How is Deep Thunder in terms of accuracy? Sounds impressive (and maybe a bit dirty) but haven't heard from it in a while. I ask because I hear that the Deep Thunder 12z buries NYC at 12-18 inches and is all snow.
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:43 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:How is Deep Thunder in terms of accuracy? Sounds impressive (and maybe a bit dirty) but haven't heard from it in a while. I ask because I hear that the Deep Thunder 12z buries NYC at 12-18 inches and is all snow.

It seemed to catch onto a few systems first last year. Id love to see it if someone has images to post. Hree is the EPS. 00z vs 12z

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT Eps_hr10
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT Eps_hr11

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by amugs on Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:58 pm

HERE IS THE SEPARATION WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A FEW MORE LIKE THIS AND BOOM WE GO!!
EPS showing the separation - we may have something working here now peeps - look at the blue blobs in mid section pull apart - From Allen Weather pro met

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT 279569782_ezgif.com-gif-maker(5).gif.473495fedc56f94faf94efab41194856



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Post by rb924119 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:59 pm

Nice, Scott!!

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Post by frank 638 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:00 pm

amugs wrote:HERE IS THE SEPARATION WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A FEW MORE LIKE THIS AND BOOM WE GO!!
EPS showing the separation - we may have something working here now peeps - look at the blue blobs in mid section pull apart - From Allen Weather pro met

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT 279569782_ezgif.com-gif-maker(5).gif.473495fedc56f94faf94efab41194856


I hope so my fingers are crossed I just want a freaking blizzard lol

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Post by amugs on Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:06 pm

amugs wrote:HERE IS THE SEPARATION WE ARE TALKING ABOUT A FEW MORE LIKE THIS AND BOOM WE GO!!
EPS showing the separation - we may have something working here now peeps - look at the blue blobs in mid section pull apart - From Allen Weather pro met

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT 279569782_ezgif.com-gif-maker(5).gif.473495fedc56f94faf94efab41194856


Some other takeaways -

1. N EPO Stronger, sharper domain region

2. Heights/flow dampened on EC

3. A pseudo NAO press up in Greenland, that press the whole field down as well and acts as a pendulum to the 50/50 region

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Carvin on Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:07 pm


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Post by amugs on Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:15 pm

Map of DT - deep thunder - thanks Carvin
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT X704CAE86-18BA-48CB-81C3-953803AA7797.thumb.jpeg.7131710df133c32a94992f76c4eb2bec.jpeg.pagespeed.ic.6aA9Hk1v0z

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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:17 pm


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by hyde345 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:47 pm

Great analysis guys. I'm hoping subtle changes aloft continue and are reflected in upcoming runs. I'm still looking at a good thump on the front end but I want more, lol. We need this 75-100 miles south and everybody will be happy.
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Post by algae888 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:09 pm

It looks like National Weather Service is going with the colder and snowier forecast for the weekend discussion not out yet but point-and-click forecast are very snowy or icy
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Post by algae888 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:10 pm

I have a strong feeling that the cad is going to be under modeled and get stronger as we get closer to this event obviously a flip two other than snow for the coastal areas is definitely a concern but we should get a good front end thump for most areas
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:26 pm

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT Tenor


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:01 pm

algae888 wrote:I have a strong feeling that the cad is going to be under modeled and get stronger as we get closer to this event obviously a flip two other than snow for the coastal areas is definitely a concern but we should get a good front end thump for most areas

I believe the south and east trend continue and we will start seeing at the surface on model runs to come.
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Post by Guest on Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:24 pm

We’re going snow 2-4” for all then to rain on the coast mix north and all snow way north Sunday am then back to heavy snow nw to se Sunday afternoon evening. 6-18” SE TO NW. I’ve seen this game before.

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Post by hyde345 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:27 pm

18z GFS more of the same. Amped and too far north and west.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:42 pm

I'm just go sit back and see what happens. I'm not adding weather to my stress bucket its just not worth it. I am hoping for the best and just reading what you guys are saying and try make my own opinions but I won't say them cuz I honestly will prolly sound dumb. On that note keep us up to date fruquently if possible. So far I feel mixed which way it might go.
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Post by rb924119 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:53 pm

jmanley32 wrote:I'm just go sit back and see what happens. I'm not adding weather to my stress bucket its just not worth it. I am hoping for the best and just reading what you guys are saying and try make my own opinions but I won't say them cuz I honestly will prolly sound dumb. On that note keep us up to date fruquently if possible. So far I feel mixed which way it might go.

Please share!! That’s what this forum is for! Judgement-free zone........but we’re better than Planet Fitness Very Happy

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:04 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'm just go sit back and see what happens. I'm not adding weather to my stress bucket its just not worth it. I am hoping for the best and just reading what you guys are saying and try make my own opinions but I won't say them cuz I honestly will prolly sound dumb. On that note keep us up to date fruquently if possible. So far I feel mixed which way it might go.

Please share!! That’s what this forum is for! Judgement-free zone........but we’re better than Planet Fitness Very Happy

Do we have a Lunk alarm like planet fitness
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:10 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'm just go sit back and see what happens. I'm not adding weather to my stress bucket its just not worth it. I am hoping for the best and just reading what you guys are saying and try make my own opinions but I won't say them cuz I honestly will prolly sound dumb. On that note keep us up to date fruquently if possible. So far I feel mixed which way it might go.

Please share!! That’s what this forum is for! Judgement-free zone........but we’re better than Planet Fitness Very Happy

rb..just watched bernie rayno..do you have time to look at it and give your opinion? I am usually a half glass full kinda gal..but not feeling good about any of this...
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Post by mwilli5783 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:10 pm

i still think when all is said and done nyc/5 boros and l.i were gonna get hit big time weekend or 1/23

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Post by Guest on Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:23 pm

I hope this thing slides at least a little southeast. I'm starting to feel guilty about my excitement.

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 6:31 pm

TheAresian wrote:I hope this thing slides at least a little southeast. I'm starting to feel guilty about my excitement.
LOL don't we are all greedy snow moungrals, "gimmi it its mine!!" LOL, I do however hope it can somehow clobber everyone.
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