JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by Guest on Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:50 am

sroc, final analysis hr78 12 z vs. hr84 06z?

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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by algae888 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:57 am

TheAresian wrote:sroc, final analysis hr78 12 z vs. hr84 06z?
It's not as flat as the 6z however it's still south of most models this run gives DC 3 to 4 in of snow at hour 84. So you can bet that it will be snowing here if extrapolated out the next few frames it also looks like it wants to redevelop off the North Carolina coast as the last two frames move due east across Tennessee
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:09 am

algae888 wrote:
TheAresian wrote:sroc, final analysis hr78 12 z vs. hr84 06z?
It's not as flat as the 6z however it's still south of most models this run gives DC 3 to 4 in of snow at hour 84. So you can bet that it will be snowing here if extrapolated out the next few frames it also looks like it wants to redevelop off the North Carolina coast as the last two frames move due east across Tennessee
this bode good or bad for me and you and anyone else in the immediate tri state? Like snow entire time like deep thunder map or still a messy mix? This is very interesting how the things we usually want with a storm we don't here in order for it to be big.
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:12 am

algae888 wrote:
TheAresian wrote:sroc, final analysis hr78 12 z vs. hr84 06z?
It's not as flat as the 6z however it's still south of most models this run gives DC 3 to 4 in of snow at hour 84. So you can bet that it will be snowing here if extrapolated out the next few frames it also looks like it wants to redevelop off the North Carolina coast as the last two frames move due east across Tennessee

Cant argue here. Im at work so tough to look at in detail.

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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by lglickman1 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:15 am

At this point is it not realistic to expect an all snow event down to the coast? Or is that still on the table?

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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by algae888 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:23 am

lglickman1 wrote:At this point is it not realistic to expect an all snow event down to the coast?  Or is that still on the table?
the setup is hard going to be for all snow down to the coast not out of the question yet but probably less likely than a mix or a change over at some point. Still doesn't mean we can't get a lot of snow first still a lot to be ironed out of all the models then Nam has the best shot at staying snow because it's so flat
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by Grselig on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:23 am

How concerned should be be about potential ice storms based on the latest models?
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by rb924119 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:25 am

Scott, you don’t want the phase here. Secondly, you don’t need the phase to get the cold. We need the northern stream energy to get ahead of the southern stream. That’s all. That will both sufficiently dampen the height field over the Eastern U.S. and provide the fresh injection of cold air further south.

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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:31 am

Grselig wrote:How concerned should be be about potential ice storms based on the latest models?  
from what I have read in past posts and seen on the models its not impossible to see a severe ice storm but what the models show seems outlandish to me but I guess these things can and do happen very infrequently. I'd like to see the short range and its ice output if any so that will be another 2 days or so.
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by algae888 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:34 am

Rb just looked at the German icon model it's definitely South of yesterday's runs not only that but New York City on North never get above freezing throughout the storm however there are four or five frames where its showing liquid and not snow falling which would mean either sleet or freezing rain. You can see the precipitation field shrink to our North as the model this feeling the Press from the polar vortex models are really going to have a tough time with thermals and precipitation type until we're very close in
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:35 am

Is it just me or does it look like the NAM might be trying to form a new low off the Carolina coast? It's clown range for the NAM, but still. That would be...interesting....if that possibility was on the table.
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:35 am

rb924119 wrote:Scott, you don’t want the phase here. Secondly, you don’t need the phase to get the cold. We need the northern stream energy to get ahead of the southern stream. That’s all. That will both sufficiently dampen the height field over the Eastern U.S. and provide the fresh injection of cold air further south.

Yup and extrapolating further on the NAM the N vort looks to make this sucker go Boom as it phases and the LP exits the coast around the southern delmarva area...again extrapolated.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
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WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
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Nov 15th 3.00"
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:35 am

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Scott, you don’t want the phase here. Secondly, you don’t need the phase to get the cold. We need the northern stream energy to get ahead of the southern stream. That’s all. That will both sufficiently dampen the height field over the Eastern U.S. and provide the fresh injection of cold air further south.

Yup and extrapolating further on the NAM the N vort looks to make this sucker go Boom as it phases and the LP exits the coast around the southern delmarva area...again extrapolated.  

Which would be great for all if it happened the way I see it in my head

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:36 am

I've seen the 12z NAM and 12z ICON (German) models so far today. At the 500mb level, the 12z NAM trended slightly unfavorable with showing a faster southern energy, which allows for more interaction with the TPV. HOWEVER, the NAM is also one of the coldest models with this storm. Washington DC starts to snow Saturday afternoon. The cold air is very entrenched with the High Pressure over us. It would probably be a 4-8" front-end thump before changing to rain, verbatim. But the long range NAM should be taken with a grain of salt anyway.

The ICON, on the other hand, is scary. The snow map is picking up on a lot of ice. See below. This model trended favorably at 500mb.

So far, we are 1-1 with the 12z model suites and 2-0 if you consider the front-end thump on the NAM to be a win.


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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:38 am

The temperature gradient on the ICON is surreal. 50's in southern NJ, 40's in CNJ, then well below freezing up in NNJ. This is a MAJOR ice signature.


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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by algae888 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:38 am

So far the nam looks good with a flat wave and probably would be a lot of snow in most areas here the German icon 6 to 12 in of snow from New York City north and west with a lot of ice to follow as temperatures are very cold. now we get to the bigger boys before the Big Boy comes out at 1
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:40 am

When the precip maps pick up on very intense precip rates like this one, in the dead of winter, it usually means ice.



And then you validate it against the temperature map...and...yes. Lots and lots of ice.


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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by algae888 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:40 am

Frank_Wx wrote:I've seen the 12z NAM and 12z ICON (German) models so far today. At the 500mb level, the 12z NAM trended slightly unfavorable with showing a faster southern energy, which allows for more interaction with the TPV. HOWEVER, the NAM is also one of the coldest models with this storm. Washington DC starts to snow Saturday afternoon. The cold air is very entrenched with the High Pressure over us. It would probably be a 4-8" front-end thump before changing to rain, verbatim. But the long range NAM should be taken with a grain of salt anyway.

The ICON, on the other hand, is scary. The snow map is picking up on a lot of ice. See below. This model trended favorably at 500mb.

So far, we are 1-1 with the 12z model suites and 2-0 if you consider the front-end thump on the NAM to be a win.

Frank I think you're incorrect on the German icon it did not count any sleet or freezing rain as snow if you scroll through each frame you'll see that once the precipitation is liquid it doesn't show any additional accumulations for our area check again I'm using tropical tidbits
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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by amugs on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:41 am

rb924119 wrote:Scott, you don’t want the phase here. Secondly, you don’t need the phase to get the cold. We need the northern stream energy to get ahead of the southern stream. That’s all. That will both sufficiently dampen the height field over the Eastern U.S. and provide the fresh injection of cold air further south.

Exactly - there is a ton of cold low level cold air to work with - that is gonna be tough to scour - you have many factor working in teh favor that you have a cold snowpack and decent to our south which will help in this as well as. The wind barbs of the NAM at its end are pointing for teh N so that means a cold air drain. You may warm the mid levels but that layer of cold air has and will do its dirty work.

@Jimmy - SYO - welcome back !!
That ice is quite possible for teh N & W burbs of NYC happened before again ala 1994 MLK storm 1.5 - 2" of ice and sleet then 2-3" of snow back then. Also 2000 we had a prolonged icing event with a SWFE fro MLK weekend - 2 day storm with 3/4 ice accretion in my area.

CP - bite you tongue you want rain - yo'd be the first to biag about another rainstorm and Frank would have to shut the board down so get what you get from this and dont get upset - you guys should stay predominately snow!!

NAM looks very good at the 500 level

Great Map from NFSwx on 33& rain
shows with the arrow how the flattening of teh PNA ridge is going to allow the TPV to flatten and the LP to dig further south and not interact with this or phase and create better separation. Thus dampening heights on the EC and you can see this and allowing the LP to slip under the TPV and not phase - let this piece of energy do all the work and it will. Complex set up indeed but very fun to track adn figure out IMO. See teh wave crash the BC coast - that wil laid in this evolution as well.

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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by Irish on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:44 am

Hey all, just joined the crew here because I'm a winter weather nut! I've been following all your updates on this possible beast coming this weekend, hoping for more snow than rain. Thx for the updates and keep 'em coming!

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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by rb924119 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:44 am

Frank_Wx wrote:I've seen the 12z NAM and 12z ICON (German) models so far today. At the 500mb level, the 12z NAM trended slightly unfavorable with showing a faster southern energy, which allows for more interaction with the TPV. HOWEVER, the NAM is also one of the coldest models with this storm. Washington DC starts to snow Saturday afternoon. The cold air is very entrenched with the High Pressure over us. It would probably be a 4-8" front-end thump before changing to rain, verbatim. But the long range NAM should be taken with a grain of salt anyway.

The ICON, on the other hand, is scary. The snow map is picking up on a lot of ice. See below. This model trended favorably at 500mb.

So far, we are 1-1 with the 12z model suites and 2-0 if you consider the front-end thump on the NAM to be a win.


I think the NAM looks generally fantastic, Frank. As long as the energy in the northern stream gets ahead of the southern stream (which it clearly does on the NAM), a large portion of our area will be ok in terms of remaining frozen and not turning wet. That will keep heights suppressed and the flow more W-E than N-S.

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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by amugs on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:46 am

Frank this is the money shot right now fro the NAM: kill the Primary in Tenn and bang its over not a chance in hell you get a warm air push with that cold over head into our area up here. Hope it holds or trends better

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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by rb924119 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:46 am

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:Scott, you don’t want the phase here. Secondly, you don’t need the phase to get the cold. We need the northern stream energy to get ahead of the southern stream. That’s all. That will both sufficiently dampen the height field over the Eastern U.S. and provide the fresh injection of cold air further south.

Yup and extrapolating further on the NAM the N vort looks to make this sucker go Boom as it phases and the LP exits the coast around the southern delmarva area...again extrapolated.  

Which would be great for all if it happened the way I see it in my head

It would be much too late, imo.

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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:46 am

algae888 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I've seen the 12z NAM and 12z ICON (German) models so far today. At the 500mb level, the 12z NAM trended slightly unfavorable with showing a faster southern energy, which allows for more interaction with the TPV. HOWEVER, the NAM is also one of the coldest models with this storm. Washington DC starts to snow Saturday afternoon. The cold air is very entrenched with the High Pressure over us. It would probably be a 4-8" front-end thump before changing to rain, verbatim. But the long range NAM should be taken with a grain of salt anyway.

The ICON, on the other hand, is scary. The snow map is picking up on a lot of ice. See below. This model trended favorably at 500mb.

So far, we are 1-1 with the 12z model suites and 2-0 if you consider the front-end thump on the NAM to be a win.

Frank I think you're incorrect on the German icon it did not count any sleet or freezing rain as snow if you scroll through each frame you'll see that once the precipitation is liquid it doesn't show any additional accumulations for our area check again I'm using tropical tidbits

The snow map I posted is from StormVista. Here is TT's snow map of the 12z ICON, which is a pure snow map.


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Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by rb924119 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:47 am

Irish wrote:Hey all, just joined the crew here because I'm a winter weather nut!  I've been following all your updates on this possible beast coming this weekend, hoping for more snow than rain.  Thx for the updates and keep 'em coming!

Irish

Welcome aboard!!! So glad to have you!! Enjoy the ride hahaha

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