JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Frank do you feel at this juncture a ice storm of that magnitude for 95 corridor is actually feasible? And if so would that be all we get just freezing rain or would we see snow too. In the map mugs posted does that frz fall before or after snow or the whole time? And when approx?

Sorry for a bajillion questions in one message. People are asking me which means media must be talking about ice threat.

Ukie is stubborn.  

DAYBLAZER wrote:Hi all, decided to come out of hiding for this one. Been lurking around but obviously as you all know it's been a disappointing start to the season so far (although my area did get about 11 inches from that Nov 15 storm).

One thing concerning me is the models seem to consistently giving my area (Hopatcong, NW corner of the state) an outlandishly catastrophic ice accumulation. I will say if the current predictions even verify by 50% of what's being predicted my area would be absolutely devastated. So many trees and old infrastructure up here. My house lost power for a week last year due to one of the Nor Easters that swung through.

I am also supposed to be going into NYC on Sunday for a Broadway play. I'm told these are rarely cancelled due to weather. But it's looking like I may have to stay home now.

Hi, I remember that...and did not your and your girlfriend/wife can't remember that part, both have accidents on the same day? My sister lives right near you in Bryam. I hope its all just plain snow for your guys! especially with your elevation.

sroc4 wrote:Ukie is stubborn.  

Ukie transfers the low to Virginia coastline then takes it to the benchmark. 12z Canadian also shows the transfer. Interesting developments which would be a game changer if that happens.

nutleyblizzard wrote:

sroc4 wrote:Ukie is stubborn.  

Ukie transfers the low to Virginia coastline then takes it to the benchmark. 12z Canadian also shows the transfer. Interesting developments which would be a game changer if that happens.

we don't want this right? Or is this a good thing and higher snow for 95 corridor?

CMON JMAN. The Ukie and CMC solutions would be an all out Godzilla for all

weatherwatchermom wrote:Hi, I remember that...and did not your and your girlfriend/wife can't remember that part, both have accidents on the same day?  My sister lives right near you in Bryam. I hope its all just plain snow for your guys! especially with your elevation.

Wow, great memory. Yes, that was the same storm where we both got into accidents. She was hit by a plow truck that lost control in our neighborhood (after making it all the way home from Morristown!) and I hit a pole trying to go get her. A few hours later, we lost power. Woke up the next morning and our house was 39 degrees inside.

A LOT of bourbon was consumed in that 24 hour period. Luckily wife was fine and insurance got her car all fixed up. My car, unfortunately, still bears the scars as I didn't want to deal with insurance. Great memory! Hope you are doing well Joanne.

Back to the topic (sorry)-- I am still concerned with this ice threat especially in my region. I don't think we have many other members in the hills of Sussex county like me (I'm 1000 ft above sea level). I'll try to give real-time reports on this one (assuming I'm not going into the city on Sunday which still seems up in the air).

FOR EYE CANDY ENJOYMENT - THERE IS A WARM MID LEVEL PUSH THAT WOULD BRING ICE BUT........

amugs wrote:UKIEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!! DAM YOU!!!!!!

Damn you as in "Damn you for getting my hopes up?"

DAYBLAZER wrote:

weatherwatchermom wrote:Hi, I remember that...and did not your and your girlfriend/wife can't remember that part, both have accidents on the same day?  My sister lives right near you in Bryam. I hope its all just plain snow for your guys! especially with your elevation.

Wow, great memory. Yes, that was the same storm where we both got into accidents. She was hit by a plow truck that lost control in our neighborhood (after making it all the way home from Morristown!) and I hit a pole trying to go get her. A few hours later, we lost power. Woke up the next morning and our house was 39 degrees inside.

A LOT of bourbon was consumed in that 24 hour period. Luckily wife was fine and insurance got her car all fixed up. My car, unfortunately, still bears the scars as I didn't want to deal with insurance. Great memory! Hope you are doing well Joanne.

Back to the topic (sorry)-- I am still concerned with this ice threat especially in my region. I don't think we have many other members in the hills of Sussex county like me (I'm 1000 ft above sea level). I'll try to give real-time reports on this one (assuming I'm not going into the city on Sunday which still seems up in the air).

Yeah but really it's not a model to have a lot of faith in.

sroc4 wrote:Here is how I interprest the NAM.  The energy on the apex of the PNA ridge is actually dampening the amplitude of said ridge.  The result is a more progressive W to E flow to both S system and TPV at this time frame such that the LP tranjectory conts as indicated by the arrow and exits the coast near the area I have circled.  Given the dampening of the PNA ridge, which in the past has not favored us, this time because our S energy is out in front the N energy would catch up to it and begin the phase also right around the time the surface LP is reaching the coast at that Lat.  IF this were correct the surface LP then rapidly intensifys and begin its track more NE rather than ENE which would in theory bring it near the BM.  Again this is all conjecture and what could be, but that energy crashing the WC affecting the amplitude of the Ridge out there could be a key player here

Yes, but take notice of the evolution of the phase. It’s not a rapid, clean phase where all the energy quickly bundles at the base of the trough axis. That’s when you would get your explosive cyclogenesis event. In this case, the phase is messy and drawn out, so the energy is forced to stretch between the trough bodies. As a result, this results in a heavy band of precip along the front (after passing through our area), with a secondary wave developing well east of here that eventually begins to ball up. There’s no quick wrapping up of the precip field; it stays sheared out along the boundary.

For those of us that are knowledge impaired, how does that translate into practical weather?

syosnow94 wrote:CMON JMAN. The Ukie and CMC solutions would be an all out Godzilla for all

I got confused cuz I thought we wanted a system to stay weak and not phase. Now I see this is happening off the coast yes good indeed. Anyone with a snow map?

Euro is another tick SE and cold

Ice anyone?

EURO UK NAM OMG

EURO!!!!!!!!!!!! Trended a good 100 mile more S and teh reflection at the surface is wonder ful!

Money Shot here - starts 100 more S and the slower evolution



RB is a god LOL!!!!!!!

amugs wrote:EURO!!!!!!!!!!!! Trended a good 100 mile more S and teh reflection at the surface is wonder ful!

Money Shot here - starts 100 more S and the slower evolution



RB is a god LOL!!!!!!!

yeah, and your optimism always give storms needed good vibes! (not taking away your knowledge)

2m Temp - I 195 No below freezing



850's warm = ice holy crap

aiannone wrote:
Ice anyone?

That's a crushing snow storm 4 are northern and western suburbs snow to ice along the coast that's a Crusher just a few more ticks Southeast and we're all be in good shape

MIngya - this is a sick look - yuo have a good 8-14" thump from CNJ/LI to about NY.NJ bodrer then a frickin' ice storm then more snow backed end as Mother of Arctic air pours in - crippling scenario verbatim - need more push s & e - anoterh 50 miles to get out this scenario

amugs wrote:2m Temp - I 195 No below freezing



850's   warm = ice holy crap

I like this for one more southeastward correction before it finalizes, personally. And let’s not get carried away, mugsy lmao I’m not counting any chickens here lol

Mother of mercy - ice maps upcoming but this dont look good swfe do this all the time in these set ups

Ummmmmmmm

Just look at the difference in the evolution of the PNA ridge out west from 12z the 14th to todays 12z.  2 days ago there was a compact amplified ULL coming onshore pumping the ridge.  Now the modeling on the euro verbatim has the energy all strung out actually de-amplifying it.  Unreal