JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:25 pm

Gefs looks worse and worse. Not too late but starting to think an inch of slop maybe best I can do. Too bad we can’t catch a break this year.

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Post by rb924119 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:44 pm

FWIW I’m hearing talk that 18z Euro was LIGHTYEARS better than 12z...........can anybody confirm this concretely???

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Post by rb924119 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:45 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:I'm just go sit back and see what happens. I'm not adding weather to my stress bucket its just not worth it. I am hoping for the best and just reading what you guys are saying and try make my own opinions but I won't say them cuz I honestly will prolly sound dumb. On that note keep us up to date fruquently if possible. So far I feel mixed which way it might go.

Please share!! That’s what this forum is for! Judgement-free zone........but we’re better than Planet Fitness Very Happy

rb..just watched bernie rayno..do you have time to look at it and give your opinion? I am usually a half glass full kinda gal..but not feeling good about any of this...

Not right now, but maybe in the morning?

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Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:53 pm

rb924119 wrote:FWIW I’m hearing talk that 18z Euro was LIGHTYEARS better than 12z...........can anybody confirm this concretely???

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 2 7eab8610
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Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:55 pm

Rb, here is 12z same time
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 2 B74dfa10
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:01 pm

Looks identical I can barely tell the difference.
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Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:05 pm

I still have not written off the very real possibility that I will wake up to more snow Friday morning than Sunday. And that ain’t because Thursday night’s system is looking any stronger. Lol. My fear is I get a couple inches of snow at outset Saturday night, it washes away with rain by Sunday AM and then only add an inch or so when it goes back to snow Sunday afternoon.
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:07 pm

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 2 5c3e7610
Here you go RB. These are the last 3 runs of the Euro including the 18z. As you can see the vortex and southern stream are becoming farther apart with each ensuing run. Unfortunately the 18z run only goes out to 90 hours but one can surmise that if the run were to continue, the low would be less amped. Good trends indeed.
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:27 pm

Ukie,icon,deep thunder seem to be in agreement
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Post by Scullybutcher on Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:33 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Ukie,icon,deep thunder seem to be in agreement
Have they ever been correct together?
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:38 pm

Scullybutcher wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Ukie,icon,deep thunder seem to be in agreement
Have they ever been correct together?

Not sure but the Ukie is hard to go against
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Post by snowlover 12345 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:21 pm

When time are the next set of model runs?

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Post by amugs on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:36 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
Scullybutcher wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Ukie,icon,deep thunder seem to be in agreement
Have they ever been correct together?

Not sure but the Ukie is hard to go against
Ukie, Deep Thunder Solution
This is pretty much the UKMET summed up in a precip map. If we avoid a phase with the TPV for long enough our low could go well south and produce snow down to the coast for I-95 30% chance of occurring right now.

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 2 Dw_0ho5WsAE5yM4

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Post by rb924119 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:48 pm

For those of you who read my discussion, the NAM just pulled it off......FLAWLESSLY. Looks like the UKMET. Here’s to hoping........

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Post by Vinnydula on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:55 pm

I'm so lost. Nam. Low is in Mexico.?
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Post by amugs on Tue Jan 15, 2019 9:57 pm

NAM also sharpened up the 500mb trough for Friday and a bit south and is colder.
Trends are good today we need this to continue and see the tpv to retract a bit more and not phase. It actually gets ahead of the southern energy and it just slides from West to NE and is UKIE like. 
UKIE0z runs and 12Z runs if hold then I think we are moving to a much more favorable solution at 500 if gefs and euro tick along with it. We aren't seeing massive changes by either model.

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Post by dkodgis on Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:00 pm

Mugsecito,me gusta
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Post by amugs on Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:13 pm

NAM difrences albeit small like 50-75 miles but good positive moves here.

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 2 ?format=go&jsonp=vglnk_154760816444914&key=e1e7dc862af11f29652fc542d68928ac&libId=jqylv2c00102n0l7000MA4aot743&loc=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Ftopic%2F1548-eastern-us-january-2019-disc-obs%2F%3Fpage%3D276%26tab%3Dcomments%23comment-121981&v=1&out=https%3A%2F%2Fs3.amazonaws.com%2F33andrain%2Fmonthly_2019_01%2Fnam_z500_vort_namer_fh75_trend.gif.30c33226e1286fc17630074f8101c3b2.gif&ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:16 pm

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 2 Nam_z510

Good look here no phase with tpv heights are flat. Also it's slowed down big time
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Post by Guest on Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:28 pm

I SAID THIS EARLIER TODAY BUT IT GOT BURIED SO HERE IT IS. FIR THOSE OF US THAT WANT BIG TIME SNOWS WHAT WE NEED IS EXACTLY WHAT YOU SAW WITH THIS PAST WEEKENDS STORM. A COLLAPSING WEST COAST RIDGE AND A PV PRESS TO SUPPRESS THE STORM ENOUGH SO IT STAYS SOUTH. IRONIC THAT WE DIDNT WANT IT LAST STORM SO IT HAPPENED AND WE WANT IT THIS STORM. CAN WE SEE A REPEAT?

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Post by Guest on Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:37 pm

This is gonna end up being one of those storms where being in the bullseye 5 days out is the kiss of death, isn't it?

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:54 pm

Just got home from being out all evening, things are looking a bit better I can see? IF the NAM, UKIE and Deep thunder are right. I have a sneaking suspicion that the GFS and Euro will follow suit and what syo talked about will happen. These subtle changes are great, lets just hope the real time progression shows this in the coming days and not just modeled.
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Post by Sanchize06 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 10:57 pm

It does look like there are improvements aloft on the GFS. A little weaker and south, heights a little lower. Overall looks better than 18z

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Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:03 pm

PNA ridge breaks down, High further south and boom that is why we see this way south jog on the 0z GFS
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:03 pm

Huge shift south on 00z GFS surface map!!
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