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JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

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Post by Guest Wed Jan 16, 2019 8:55 pm

Weather Channel currently calling for me to get a minimum of 14" of snow. If that ends up being the max rather than the min, I'll still consider this storm a win.

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Post by HectorO Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:19 pm

TheAresian wrote:Weather Channel currently calling for me to get a minimum of 14" of snow. If that ends up being the max rather than the min, I'll still consider this storm a win.


Can't get too greedy!

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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:33 pm

I watched Lee tonight and that heavy snow area he had way N and W came down a lot towards our area.A very good trend indeed.Hope that continues over the next 24-48 hours.
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Post by Irish Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:33 pm

When it comes to snow, i'm always greedy!
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Post by dkodgis Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:35 pm

Doc, I’m holding you to that beer. The snow’s almost here
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Post by Grselig Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:36 pm

docstox12 wrote:I watched Lee tonight and that heavy snow area he had way N and W came down a lot towards our area.A very good trend indeed.Hope that continues over the next 24-48 hours.

Doc, think about all your snow storms over the years. So few perform as expected, both good and bad. With something as complicated as this and based on prior storms (even this past November) I expect last minute surprises. Hopefully good.
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:36 pm

Steve D “never underestimate an Arctic airmass”

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:39 pm

I do not like the look of the NAM so far. It looks like it will phase everything.

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 12 Namconus_z500_vort_us_fh66_trend.thumb.gif.c7557c1ed20e59ab8faa35ede60c2c5d

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:40 pm

Is it time for the nam?
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:43 pm

Looks like a good thump of ice on the NAM for jersey

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 12 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_48

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 12 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_49

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 12 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:44 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like a good thump of ice on the NAM for jersey

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 12 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_48

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 12 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_49

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 12 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50
That looks pretty ugly
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:45 pm

Warmest frame of the NAM

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 12 075AF51A-FDB7-4EE6-A5D1-130D4F6D4958.png.d35f35b7494318a0f20e5649432d3617

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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:46 pm

dkodgis wrote:Doc, I’m holding you to that beer. The snow’s almost here

10-4 Damian,LOL!
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Post by Smitty623 Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:47 pm

50 yikes

Sent from Topic'it App

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:49 pm

NAM shows rain for SNJ / Shore, snow to ice to rain for CNJ, snow to prolonged ice to minor rain for NNJ, and snow to ice for N&W of NYC

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Post by Joe Snow Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:50 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like a good thump of ice on the NAM for jersey

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 12 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_48

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 12 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_49

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 12 Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_50

Well this don't look good for me on Long Island..............Not Good at all.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:50 pm

Hours 72-78 the low jumps around from NW WV to NE WV to S WV

Funny

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Post by frank 638 Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:52 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:NAM shows rain for SNJ / Shore, snow to ice to rain for CNJ, snow to prolonged ice to minor rain for NNJ, and snow to ice for N&W of NYC
what about for the city are we going to have couple hours of freezing rain then back to snow

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:52 pm

Not a great start to the night

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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:52 pm

Grselig wrote:
docstox12 wrote:I watched Lee tonight and that heavy snow area he had way N and W came down a lot towards our area.A very good trend indeed.Hope that continues over the next 24-48 hours.

Doc, think about all your snow storms over the years.  So few perform as expected, both good and bad.  With something as complicated as this and based on prior storms (even this past November) I expect last minute surprises.  Hopefully good.

Grselig, since December 1960, I have seen them all, from 1-3 inches predicted 2 days before Boxing Day 2010,to 20 inches predicted in March 1962 that yielded a coating,LOL.Whatever happens is all gravy for me, I lived through and saw 1960-1961,1993-1994,1995-1996 and my all time best year up here 2017-2018 with 84 inches including a 27 inch monster.My problem with this storm is any potential slop will turn into concrete with those single digit temperatures coming.As I have said many times, gove me pure snow or all rain, hold the slop.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:55 pm

frank 638 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:NAM shows rain for SNJ / Shore, snow to ice to rain for CNJ, snow to prolonged ice to minor rain for NNJ, and snow to ice for N&W of NYC
what about for the city are we going to have couple hours of freezing rain then back to snow

City was snow to rain. Very little ice verbatim on the NAM

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Post by lglickman1 Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:57 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Not a great start to the night


Hopefully not the beginning of the end

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Post by docstox12 Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:59 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Warmest frame of the NAM

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 12 075AF51A-FDB7-4EE6-A5D1-130D4F6D4958.png.d35f35b7494318a0f20e5649432d3617

Wow, if this verifies, I have major icing problems here in the LHV.UGH!!!
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:00 pm

With the 00z NAM trending toward the 18z GFS maybe we'll see the 00z GFS trend toward the 18z NAM

I mean, winter of 2018-2019 amiright?

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Post by weatherwatchermom Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:01 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:With the 00z NAM trending toward the 18z GFS maybe we'll see the 00z GFS trend toward the 18z NAM

I mean, winter of 2018-2019 amiright?
what a nightmare
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Post by aiannone Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:03 pm

Now I beg the question. Do I stay home or go to Binghamton. Classes start Tuesday so I have to drive back Monday the latest. But there is something about riding out a storm at home haha

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:03 pm

docstox12 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Warmest frame of the NAM

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 12 075AF51A-FDB7-4EE6-A5D1-130D4F6D4958.png.d35f35b7494318a0f20e5649432d3617

Wow, if this verifies, I have major icing problems here in the LHV.UGH!!!

Seems that is the biggest threat as of now. NAM taints well into Massachusetts

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