JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

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Post by rb924119 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:44 am

SENJsnowman wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:I would say the JMA has trended south today lol

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 18 Jma_z500_mslp_us_4

Yes, it has. UKMET HAS ALSO HELD SERVE. HUGE.

Mugs, I disagree with your GFS statement. Positive changes aloft on the GFS of non-negligeable magnitude.

That's good news on the UKMET. Would like to see the EURO come south a little

How important is this if the 850 is still warm?

The 850s will be “less warm” lol but also improves chances for significantly under-modeled ageostrophic flow/cold damming

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Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:44 am

I wouldnt exactly say the Ukie held. It came N in my estimation. surface low Passes over or just S of LI

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Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:45 am

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 18 GZ_D5_PN_072_0000

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS Trace (First snow Nov 12th)
November 12th = trace
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Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:46 am

00z

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 18 GZ_D5_PN_096_0000

_________________
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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS Trace (First snow Nov 12th)
November 12th = trace
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Post by rb924119 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:47 am

Nvm on the UK, it has come North a bit. Waiting further maps to confirm how warm/cold.

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Post by Sanchize06 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:47 am

SENJsnowman wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
Sanchize06 wrote:I would say the JMA has trended south today lol

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 18 Jma_z500_mslp_us_4

Yes, it has. UKMET HAS ALSO HELD SERVE. HUGE.

Mugs, I disagree with your GFS statement. Positive changes aloft on the GFS of non-negligeable magnitude.

That's good news on the UKMET. Would like to see the EURO come south a little

How important is this if the 850 is still warm?

True, with 850s still warm you will get a changeover. So i suppose it's ice compared to rain. But the further south track does help with an initial thump of snow and maybe seeing some snow on the backend like the ICON showed

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Post by Guest on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:04 pm

Ukie actually came in SIGNIFICANTLY NW. Not good

It has been the most consistent and respected southern model. Now we may be seeing troubling signs

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Post by DAYBLAZER on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:09 pm

billg and CP thanks for the advice re: elevation and snow.

Still holding out hope that I can make it to the city on Sunday. At this point it's not looking good however...
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Post by docstox12 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:15 pm

Consensus so far today is that it's looking like this is going to be a far N and W major snowstorm while our area  varies from snow/mix to snow/mix/rain. I was checking NWS map and mix starts to get in the picture up around Livingston Manor and Roscoe.N of that it's all snow 12 to 20 inches.Thats a good 60 miles away from me N and W so it needs to move S and E by a lot to get me out of this slop fest.
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Post by mwilli5783 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:19 pm

i'm hoping the next storm prelimary 1/23 will be a better than this weekend..ughh

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Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:22 pm

syosnow94 wrote:I really feel like there’s too much panic and freaking out over ice in this discussion right now. Relax

A.  Freezing rain forecasts almost always bust low
B.  There’s still 3 sets of model runs before anything is nailed down and we are still trending south as we speak
C.  Load up on wood and booze and ride it out. People have survived for ages. We will too. Relax

Already loaded up on food, booze, wood, and gas in the car. Where I am there is a real concern for the ice. Look up Westwood on google maps, I'm just enough outside NYC that I sometimes get more snow, but I am just close enough to NYC that we get a little on the warmer side, elevation is only 86' so no influence there. Always the battle zone.

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Post by jimv45 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:23 pm

doc I agree but I wouldn't call it a slop fest up here,.Temps in the mid 20s after a good thump to start to an ice rink, don't want the ice but it looks like its coming.

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Post by hyde345 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:24 pm

The good news is even if this doesn't pan out like people would like we are entering into an active pattern for the remainder of this month and into Feb.
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Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:26 pm

What about the intensity of some of the bands cooling the column and keeping it cold? Could that help prevent freezing rain? I'd rather have sleet, at least it wouldn't be a skating rink

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Post by hyde345 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:27 pm

jimv45 wrote:doc I agree but I wouldn't call it a slop fest up here,.Temps in the mid 20s after a good thump to start to an ice rink, don't want the ice but it looks like its coming.

Jim, NWS only has us getting .10-.20 of ice, which still sucks but it could be worse. Most of our precip should be snow and sleet.
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Post by jimv45 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:28 pm

yea hyde even though I don't think we get blockbuster totals here it looks to be a nice hit of snow to start, but its the ice that concerns me with teps in the mid 20s and crashing Sunday with sleet and freezing rain.

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Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:31 pm

Channel 7 has their maps up, 3-6" for me, worried about icing

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Snowfall winter of 2018-2019      25.10"

Snowfall winter of 2017-2018       51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017      45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:35 pm

hyde345 wrote:The good news is even if this doesn't pan out like people would like we are entering into an active pattern for the remainder of this month and into Feb.
Problem is most of us on this forum has the attitude of I'll believe when I see it. I know that you need the proper setup for a snowstorm to occur, but there is a certain degree of luck involved too, i.e. timing issues. To this point its been all bad. So its hard to be optimistic.
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Post by Guest on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:41 pm

So far today the trends from the last 24 hours have begun to reverse themselves to a warmer solution. If this continues with the Euro at 1 pm today then I’m jumping ship. In that case take my map and toss it

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:47 pm

syosnow94 wrote:So far today the trends from the last 24 hours have begun to reverse themselves to a warmer solution. If this continues with the Euro at 1 pm today then I’m jumping ship. In that case take my map and toss it

But I already framed it. I thought we had a deal.
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Post by docstox12 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:49 pm



lol! lol! lol! lol!

When you got it,FLAUNT it!!!

Nobody deserves this storm more than You Aresian, time after time you have seen the Shore and island crew get whacked while you get a dusting.I can't remember when the last time a major snowstorm took the track to hit you area like this one will, it's been years!
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Post by amugs on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:50 pm

@rb I did not post nor comment on the GFS brother - I was teaching about C ...A...D.. which this stomr will have the utmost issue with and only IMO High Res models can sniff out.
Did not like seeing the Ukie jump 100 miles NW adn brings the low over Delaware/Cape May - needed it to stay further South. That woudl still mean above I80 ice issues - soundings will be important with this.
The trend has been to a more icy solution above I80 and warmer for those below I78/Driscoll Bridge.
The snow pattern is just not conducive with this one for one reason or another as goes this winter.
One thing though do not underestimate the CAD sign again for points about i 78 and N.
Back to C....A......D!!

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Post by Guest on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:54 pm

amugs wrote:@rb I did not post nor comment on the GFS brother - I was teaching about C ...A...D.. which this stomr will have the utmost issue with and only IMO High Res models can sniff out.
Did not like seeing the Ukie jump 100 miles NW adn brings the low over Delaware/Cape May - needed it to stay further South. That woudl still mean above I80 ice issues - soundings will be important with this.
The trend has been to a more icy solution above I80 and warmer for those below I78/Driscoll Bridge.
The snow pattern is just not conducive with this one for one reason or another as goes this winter.
One thing though do not underestimate the CAD sign again for points about i 78 and N.
Back to C....A......D!!

Do not worry. At least we will get an inch tonight. Saves us from an F- winter. Now it’s just an F

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Post by amugs on Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:54 pm

From Allan Weather - pro met student - excellent work here after digesting the 12z maps:
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 18 DxIQQSEW0AAgBZQ
AND HE said ZR is going to be a major problem - this set up is a deep winter CAD Signature unlike a late Feb or March
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 18 DxIQfClWoAArZc-

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