JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Page 3 of 21 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 12 ... 21  Next

Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by Sanchize06 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:04 pm

Definitely a nice improvement. If we can keep trending in that direction, we'll be in good shape

Sanchize06
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 908
Reputation : 19
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Long Branch, NJ

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:04 pm

Sets up for another ice storm senarion for coast, but one more push south and we are all golden white.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15935
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by amugs on Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:07 pm

GFS CAVES !!!

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Gfs_z510

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10354
Reputation : 163
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by Guest on Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:08 pm

aiannone wrote:PNA ridge breaks down, High further south and boom that is why we see this way south jog on the 0z GFS

I just posted this is what we need

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:10 pm

amugs wrote:GFS CAVES !!!

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Gfs_z510
For one run, it still has me on edge as this is 4 to 5 days out and plenty can shift back the other way, I really hope this trending continues just a bit further south to get us all in and then it stays there. I am staying very cautious, with hope in my heart.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15935
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:14 pm

0z CMC still mostly rain. Low rides over DC moves NE and then exits of the NJ coast south of LI. Brief changeover at the end. But also a jog south and east
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3754
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by hyde345 on Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:15 pm

CMC further south and east also. Good 00z runs so far.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 695
Reputation : 30
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by amugs on Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:19 pm

UKIE holds and serve .....GN peeos. Very positive trends so far. Let's see what that PITA DR. No has to say come morning.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10354
Reputation : 163
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:23 pm

The shift at 500mb on the 00z GFS could be the saving grace we needed in this dreadful winter. The GFS just trended to the UKIE, and the 00z UKIE run tonight STILL shows a major snowstorm for our area.

The PNA ridge broke down, the southern stream energy was more fierce, and the northern stream energy outpaced it. There was hardly any phasing. Exactly what we needed.

One more positive step with models tomorrow and it could be game on. Or, a step backwards means this will turn out to be a snow to rain event. Although I remain in favor of that scenario, I am absolutely loving the GFS and UKIE runs tonight.

Madonne!

_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive - Cranford, NJ
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 35"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18708
Reputation : 277
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 27
Location : Cranford, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by Joe Snow on Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:26 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:GFS CAVES !!!

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Gfs_z510
For one run, it still has me on edge as this is 4 to 5 days out and plenty can shift back the other way, I really hope this trending continues just a bit further south to get us all in and then it stays there.  I am staying very cautious, with hope in my heart.

It will waffle back and forth till she settles in, I am still thinking we cash in on the White Gold on Sunday. The trend is your friend.
Joe Snow
Joe Snow
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 784
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 57
Location : Kings Park, NY

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by Guest on Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:35 pm

Weather repeats folks. The pna ridge broke down last week and is looking like it may again. Usually this is bad for us but this winter is so effed up thatvwhats usually bad may be good!

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:46 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:The shift at 500mb on the 00z GFS could be the saving grace we needed in this dreadful winter. The GFS just trended to the UKIE, and the 00z UKIE run tonight STILL shows a major snowstorm for our area.

The PNA ridge broke down, the southern stream energy was more fierce, and the northern stream energy outpaced it. There was hardly any phasing. Exactly what we needed.

One more positive step with models tomorrow and it could be game on. Or, a step backwards means this will turn out to be a snow to rain event. Although I remain in favor of that scenario, I am absolutely loving the GFS and UKIE runs tonight.

Madonne!

Thumbs up Thumbs up Thumbs up Thumbs up
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6202
Reputation : 203
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 57
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Historical thread

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by aiannone on Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:59 pm

0z GFS ENS
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Captur14
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Captur15
aiannone
aiannone
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 3754
Reputation : 77
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Saint James, LI (Northwest Suffolk Co.)

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:07 am

aiannone wrote:0z GFS ENS
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Captur14
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Captur15

I can live with this, and the coast is getting there.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6202
Reputation : 203
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 57
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Historical thread

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by algae888 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 2:49 am

Well you can add the Euro to the list of great model trends for tonight 6 to 12 in of snow for the area followed by sleet freezing rain and plain rain along the coast then back to snow before it ends great Trends tonight
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4979
Reputation : 38
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 57
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 4:58 am

One thing that I need to ask the more knowledgable in here is is see all positive signs in model runs last night the things we need for snowier solutions but it seems not to reflect the surface in my area. Will the maps eventually show snowier solutions here on CNJ coast?
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4358
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 42
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:39 am

Love what I see this am euro followed and now all models have pushed south
Check out deep thunder lol 43 inches bullseye for beabtown and Easter ma lol. 17 for NYC. Font care doubt that's true but I'd take 17 in a heartbeat! Even 6 to 12 sounds awesome but come on guys lets get the beast hoisted in a few days! Frank said the M word!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 15935
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by rb924119 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 5:54 am

I know I hate off-hour runs, ESPECIALLY the FV3 (which has been horrible), but positive changes so far on 06z run are phenomenal Very Happy good night all lol

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4927
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by rb924119 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:04 am

ALL IM GONNA SAY IS HOLY 06Z GEFS

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 4927
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by heehaw453 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:10 am

rb924119 wrote:ALL IM GONNA SAY IS HOLY 06Z GEFS

Very nice!

heehaw453

Posts : 423
Reputation : 34
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:20 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:One thing that I need to ask the more knowledgable in here is is see all positive signs in model runs last night the things we need for snowier solutions but it seems not to reflect the surface in my area. Will the maps eventually show snowier solutions here on CNJ coast?

With less phasing you don't get the arctic air in as quick. That would be my guess.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS Trace (First snow Nov 12th)
November 12th = trace
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6294
Reputation : 251
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by Guest on Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:24 am

WOW. NWS going all ALL RAIN except for far nw areas where there could be a mix and then brutal cold followed by a quick warm up and more rain Wednesday. JUST WOW IF THIS VERIFIES. Even with the overnight trends they went this way. VERY SURPRISING AND UNSETTLING

Guest
Guest


Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by sroc4 on Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:37 am

sroc4 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:One thing that I need to ask the more knowledgable in here is is see all positive signs in model runs last night the things we need for snowier solutions but it seems not to reflect the surface in my area. Will the maps eventually show snowier solutions here on CNJ coast?

With less phasing you don't get the arctic air in as quick.  That would be my guess.

Again with less phasing you get less cold air to work with.  This could allow the warm nose at 925 and/or 850 an easier time to push into the area.  As per usual timing is everything and us coasties may have to be careful for what we wish for. A LP track over the area with little phasing will likely keep the coastal plain rain during the brunt of the storm, but front end snow comes into play more and more.

BTW The Aresian if your out there on your far N&W island know that yes I am rooting for my own back yard which typically means you take some kind of hit, but know I still think you will do well with this one.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS Trace (First snow Nov 12th)
November 12th = trace
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6294
Reputation : 251
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by dkodgis on Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:50 am

It is the cold air, right? It is sll snow then. If the cold air and warm air meet up for tea, ice. Generator time
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 971
Reputation : 65
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 3 Empty Re: JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Jan 16, 2019 7:01 am

rb924119 wrote:ALL IM GONNA SAY IS HOLY 06Z GEFS

Why do you do this and not attach pictures?

It's like looking at Playboy (aging myself) and the centerfold pulls out to block letters that say "WOW, take our word for it the photo we were going to post is really hot".
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6202
Reputation : 203
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 57
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY - OTI Historical thread

Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 21 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4 ... 12 ... 21  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum