JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT

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Post by HectorO on Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:05 pm

So judging by the maps, the entire state of NJ could get screwed with this storm? NY state looks to be the winner of this one. All this hype for most of us to get a mere 3 inches? I live out in Bloomingdale up 287, they had my area getting hit hard, but it keeps bouncing back and forth.  A few days ago the high for Saturday almost in the 40's now it's only going to hit 27.
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Post by algae888 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:40 pm

Rb it seems like the main focus of the heaviest snow/precip is Shifting North on most of the models even though the storm track is not necessarily North any reasoning behind this. I should say that's for the front end part of the storm
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Post by billg315 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:42 pm

My current thoughts for NJ are:
South Jersey (Mercer, Burlington, Ocean, Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, Salem, Gloucester) will see snow changing quickly to a heavy rain. Maybe an inch or two of snow falls before the rain, but then the storm is mostly rain with little accumulation in those locations.

Central Jersey/Northeast NJ (Monmouth, Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon, Union, Hudson, eastern Bergen): Snow for a few hours Saturday evening may accumulate about 2-4” before changing to sleet, freezing rain for a time. After midnight it changes to a cold rain before ending as a brief period of snow midday Sunday. Any snow accumulation that isn’t washed away will turn to slush as the rain falls late Saturday night and Sunday morning.

North Jersey/Northwest NJ (Warren, Sussex, Morris, Passaic, western Bergen): Snow, heavy at times will last several hours before changing to sleet and freezing rain. About 4-8” of snow before a changeover, then an extended period of sleet and freezing rain adding a layer of ice on top of the snow. These areas could also see a changeover to all rain Sunday morning (more likely to the south and east in this region, less likely further north and west) before ending briefly as snow.

In Pennsylvania and interior sections of NY state where it is primarily snow, with a little sleet, and 12-18” of snow from this storm seems reasonable.

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Post by aiannone on Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:49 pm

ICON still cold
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 21 Captur20
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Post by billg315 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:51 pm

18z GFS doubling down on the warmer solution. Makes my post above look somewhat "bullish" on snow if that gives you an idea of how bad it is. Rolling Eyes
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Post by Irish on Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:52 pm

Forecast on the weather channel for my area ( Central NJ) just upped the temps and basically says mostly rain.

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Post by billg315 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:52 pm

18z GFS Gives a little more snow on the back-end, but not enough to make up for what it doesn't give on the front-end.
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:54 pm

aiannone wrote:ICON still cold
JANUARY 19TH-20TH STORM THREAT - Page 21 Captur20
18 to 21 for me but do you have ice map? A lot of that is frz I'm sure.
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Post by hyde345 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 4:58 pm

billg315 wrote:18z GFS doubling down on the warmer solution. Makes my post above look somewhat "bullish" on snow if that gives you an idea of how bad it is. Rolling Eyes

I thought 18Z was slightly better than 12z.
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Post by brownie on Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:12 pm

TheAresian wrote:If the board would prefer me keeping quiet this weekend, I'm happy to do so.  
Please post away!

I love snow.  I think the only time I ever post here is when there is snow of any amount outside my door.  I want to hear about, and see pictures of your snow.  Smile

As for me, I’m just hoping I don’t get a ton of ice, or I will not be able to dig myself out.

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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:13 pm

6” imby predicted by nws is really aggressive as per latest guidance. It’ll all depend on how good front end snows are because I would put little faith in backend snows. Should be interesting to see watches go to warnings or advisories tomorrow.

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Post by frank 638 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:15 pm

i know this storm is driving everyone crazy i just want to know for the bronx are we going to snow to sleet and freezing rain to rain or is this going to a dangerous ice storm

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:23 pm

Per the map posted a page back the Bronx and southern Westchester is in for 0.5 to 0.99 inches freezing rain by nws and 4 to 8 snow and sleet. If prepare for possible power outages outside of the city though they are in the significant category of ice too. Dunno about plain non ice accumulating rain. My local is for temps in 20s so it could be really bad.
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:24 pm

I think the 3km nam are etc sr models are going to surprise us just s hunch. This is too dynamic even for nam.
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Post by aiannone on Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:26 pm

Upton:
"Regarding the track of the storm, some of the model guidance has
shifted closer to coast as compared to model runs 12 hours ago, and
others have shifted farther away. Better RAOB sampling should
occur with tonight`s model run, so hopefully a trend becomes
more established. With that said, changes in track forecast are
still possible in subsequent forecast packages."
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Post by frank 638 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:44 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Per the map posted a page back the Bronx and southern Westchester is in for 0.5 to 0.99 inches freezing rain by nws and 4 to 8 snow and sleet. If prepare for possible power outages outside of the city though they are in the significant category of ice too. Dunno about plain non ice accumulating rain. My local is for temps in 20s so it could be really bad.
thanks for you post back wow thats crazy for how much ice we are having .i love snow but i rather have sleet then freezing rain

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:52 pm

have the samples from the west coast gone into the models or will we see a better effect of those results tonight?
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:52 pm

frank 638 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Per the map posted a page back the Bronx and southern Westchester is in for 0.5 to 0.99 inches freezing rain by nws and 4 to 8 snow and sleet. If prepare for possible power outages outside of the city though they are in the significant category of ice too. Dunno about plain non ice accumulating rain. My local is for temps in 20s so it could be really bad.
thanks for you post back wow thats crazy for how much ice we are having .i love snow but i rather have sleet then freezing rain
Well I wouldnt say we ARE getting that, thats what it shows right now, as said before wind and frz events do not really seem to pan out in these areas but IF this does then alot of areas are in for a world of hurt (power and tree wise).
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:52 pm

aiannone wrote:Upton:
"Regarding the track of the storm, some of the model guidance has
shifted closer to coast as compared to model runs 12 hours ago, and
others have shifted farther away. Better RAOB sampling should
occur with tonight`s model run, so hopefully a trend becomes
more established. With that said, changes in track forecast are
still possible in subsequent forecast packages."

I guess you are staying?
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:55 pm

What  a bunch of a$$ clowns news 12 are.  Headline Snow and ice storm tonight, possible snow over weekend, LMAO are they serious? Like I think they got it reversed, I also saw a sign on the higheway that made no sense.  It said Winter storm advisory Thursday-Sunday.....who the f writes these things? First theres no such thig as a winter storm advisory and second its not in effect with impacts from now until sunday!!

My wife just told me the store is craxzy already, is it really for tonight? I am praying for a school delay but I really think its going to be nothing.
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Post by billg315 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 5:58 pm

I think some areas mostly in NJ will see an inch or two tonight, but no, tonight is not a big deal. People are probably more panicking (maybe unnecessarily) for the weekend.
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Post by Guest on Thu Jan 17, 2019 6:21 pm

From the "You said there are no stupid questions so here goes" department:

A question on the 18z runs for the GFS,NAM and Icon models. I'm looking at the 500mb maps and it seems like the northern energy isn't as deep (deep as into the US/as far south) on the Icon as it is on the NAM and GFS models. Is the increased distance between the northern and southern energies on the Icon the reason the southern energy stays further south and the surface low is further south than on the other 2 models?

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