January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map

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Post by Guest on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:18 pm

If she thinks that of you, I can't imagine what she'd think of us.

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:19 pm

By sunday early morning its a full fliged freezing rain ice storm for NYC area and parts of NJ and radar is showing very heavy precip, if the temps stay in the 20s like frank said then we have major trouble it will all accrue on everything. I snow from 5pm sat to 1am sunday before i start to see the sleet briefly then the frz which per franks snow map lasts until i guess 12 noon, if it doesnt change to plain rain thats going to be diastrous. here are 7am temps with the frz. so if what frank said is correct these frz totals may only hold to very cold surfaces like trees etc, roads may just stay wet and a bit slick. His scroll is right, this is so hard to pin down.

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 3 Hires_16

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Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:21 pm

FWIW the icon is still great

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS Trace (First snow Nov 12th)
November 12th = trace
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Post by amugs on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:28 pm

Something to keep in mind, vort is onshore and being digets into the models now so well get better, much better model runs for the track over at 500. I still think we need to use hi results Sr models for the CAD, so said this today and I agree.
Watch another 50 mile shift SE? Would be great and not out of the realm? We shall see.
Tough storm and hopefully models trends moreally SE as NAM showed and ICON just did. AmazING JMA has not wavered from a Del Marva exit. Crazy with a stronger set up that is MECS city AeCS at the most.minimum.
Night tall and looking fwd to Al and rb and the other early bird posters here for good great posts showing a shift back to Tuesdays maps!

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:31 pm

amugs wrote:Something to keep in mind, vort is onshore and being digets into the models now so well get better, much better model runs for the track over at 500. I still think we need to use hi results Sr models for the CAD, so said this today and I agree.
Watch another 50 mile shift SE? Would be great and not out of the realm? We shall see.
Tough storm and hopefully models trends moreally SE as NAM showed and ICON just did. AmazING JMA has not wavered from a Del Marva exit. Crazy with a stronger set up that is MECS city AeCS at the most.minimum.
Night tall and looking fwd to Al and rb and the other early bird posters here for good great posts showing a shift back to Tuesdays maps!
that's what I asked earlier..so will all of tonight's runs have the info?
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Post by amugs on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:33 pm

ICON snowfall.only rest well everyone long but fun Friday ahead!#

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 3 63499862-7C08-4CAB-83D2-68BA445F8AC0.png.10f3b008382bf21fe7968cbf7c80abf5

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Post by amugs on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:35 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
amugs wrote:Something to keep in mind, vort is onshore and being digets into the models now so well get better, much better model runs for the track over at 500. I still think we need to use hi results Sr models for the CAD, so said this today and I agree.
Watch another 50 mile shift SE? Would be great and not out of the realm? We shall see.
Tough storm and hopefully models trends moreally SE as NAM showed and ICON just did. AmazING JMA has not wavered from a Del Marva exit. Crazy with a stronger set up that is MECS city AeCS at the most.minimum.
Night tall and looking fwd to Al and rb and the other early bird posters here for good great posts showing a shift back to Tuesdays maps!
that's what I asked earlier..so will all of tonight's runs have the info?
Yup it's onshore and we'll get the data from it, so better model information and rus IMO. 0z through 12Z should be interesting and fun. 
Get some rest everyone. This site strategy of what maybe a long fun 45 day period

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Post by Guest on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:36 pm

NAM shows me getting just under 3” of snow and .4” freezing rain. I’ll take that. It’ll be fun. Just no plain rain

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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:36 pm

Hearing RGEM is south.
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:43 pm

syosnow94 wrote:NAM shows me getting just under 3” of snow and .4” freezing rain. I’ll take that. It’ll be fun. Just no plain rain
0.4 is enough to take out a lot of power have fun. NAM has me getting closer to 0.5plus ice, but 3-6 snow, yes it'll be "FUN" if thats the way you wanna put it lol
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:45 pm

RGEM only goes out 48 hrs on wxbell but it looks like the snow is coming in hot (well cold and south lol)!
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:52 pm

Of course it is a serious topic by my lord Jim Cantore and TWC have gone wayyyy over the top. I am sorry but does anyone else find this hilariously rediculous? 90mph icicles!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=174&v=wfzm1M_iSos
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Post by mwilli5783 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:52 pm

been monitoring you guys all day so i'm also turning in,hopefully things will change in the overnight runs..be up at 8am(only good thing today we have another reliever(yanks)
night.....

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Jan 17, 2019 10:58 pm

syosnow94 wrote:NAM shows me getting just under 3” of snow and .4” freezing rain. I’ll take that. It’ll be fun. Just no plain rain

It's fun until you lose power, then it loses all appeal.

Have you ever lost power for over a day, because if you haven't I'll let you in on a secret, IT SUCKS!!!!!
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Post by oldtimer on Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:06 pm

Anything more on Rgem?

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:08 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:NAM shows me getting just under 3” of snow and .4” freezing rain. I’ll take that. It’ll be fun. Just no plain rain

It's fun until you lose power, then it loses all appeal.

Have you ever lost power for over a day, because if you haven't I'll let you in on  a secret, IT SUCKS!!!!!
He had to of during Sandy, I lost it for 7 days, longest ever was hurricane bob as a kid 11 days! What scres me being in the corsshairs of that ice is not losing power (it sucks yes but its the cold thats coming, with no power we wont have heat and as i had said before its already drafty like crazy in my apartment, and its not like we can fire up a generator for a heater or light a fire, living in a apartment can be far worse in this situation than a house where you have some other options. During Sandy was chilly enough and we were sitting ducks basically, couldnt wait to go back to work with lights and warmth. This would put that to shame with the sub zero temps coming after. So though I would be interested to live a ice storm the consequences are not going to be fun.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:14 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:NAM shows me getting just under 3” of snow and .4” freezing rain. I’ll take that. It’ll be fun. Just no plain rain

It's fun until you lose power, then it loses all appeal.

Have you ever lost power for over a day, because if you haven't I'll let you in on  a secret, IT SUCKS!!!!!
He had to of during Sandy, I lost it for 7 days, longest ever was hurricane bob as a kid 11 days!

It’s a whole different ball game losing power in the winter though Jman. With temperatures expected below zero Sunday night and not above 10 on Monday losing power could be life threatening for some.
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Post by Guest on Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:15 pm

How often does the NWS update information for you guys? I swear it feels like NWS Binghamton does an update once every 12 hours.

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Post by Guest on Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:16 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:NAM shows me getting just under 3” of snow and .4” freezing rain. I’ll take that. It’ll be fun. Just no plain rain

It's fun until you lose power, then it loses all appeal.

Have you ever lost power for over a day, because if you haven't I'll let you in on  a secret, IT SUCKS!!!!!

Had no power for 13 days cause of Sandy. I’m not worried I have this

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 3 A4249210

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 17, 2019 11:28 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:NAM shows me getting just under 3” of snow and .4” freezing rain. I’ll take that. It’ll be fun. Just no plain rain

It's fun until you lose power, then it loses all appeal.

Have you ever lost power for over a day, because if you haven't I'll let you in on  a secret, IT SUCKS!!!!!

Had no power for 13 days cause of Sandy. I’m not worried I have this

January 19th-20th: 1st Call Snow Map - Page 3 A4249210
I knew you were gonna post that picture, I would say can we come stay with you if we lose power but driving aint happening. I am not cancelling my trip to CT for Sunday for fear of jinxing us getting anything but I have to by midnight sat or I get chanrged for the hotel, by then it will be snowing so its not like the storm can turn around lol
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Post by HectorO on Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:14 am

Time to load up on firewood, although I wish I had a wood burning stove over a fireplace, because the heat is better. I hope that many people have power next week or I will be losing out on a lot of money. I rather have no snow or moisture at all if it means losing power and losing money.
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Post by mmanisca on Fri Jan 18, 2019 1:21 am

Oh my the Euro run is horrible
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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:08 am

6Z 3K NAM. Surface temperatures NW of 95 never get out of 20s. A solid 6” snow and lots of ice. Might be in better range today so maybe icon has been on to something.

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 18, 2019 5:58 am

Yeah the freezing rain shifted way south of NYC now. The snow of 6 plus moved from up northern Hudson valley all way down to about 10 miles north of NYC but a ton of sleet for that in between area. Drastic shift south and east and 3km does try to pull off brief backend heavy snow.
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Post by Guest on Fri Jan 18, 2019 6:05 am

jman, look at the temps on the 3k NAM for hr 51. The 850mb is above freezing, but the northern half of NJ has 2m temps below freezing. Isn't that the signature of freezing rain/ice?

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