Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:40 am

In the long range thread yesterday I spoke about a possible storm impacting our area Wednesday, 01/30. Anomalous ridging will develop over the northern and eastern Pacific, a type of pattern we have yet to see this season. It reminds of the 2014-2015 winter when the -EPO dominated our pattern and we saw prolonged periods of very cold temperatures.

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front Gfs-ens_z500a_namer_22

The PV sticks out like a sore thumb. What's interesting is the Arctic Front is actually NOT the main show here. It is the possible coastal storm that develops from a phase between southern energy and PV energy.

Lets compare the GFS and CMC for a second.

GFS:

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front Gfs_z500_vort_us_23

CMC:

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front Gem_z500_vort_us_24

The trough on the CMC is much sharper and negatively tilted. This allows a coastal storm to develop and drop significant snow over the area. The PV is situated far enough N&W to not interfere with the dynamics between the southern and northern stream energy. A phase happens and a storm forms.

The GFS, however, has the PV much closer to the coast and it basically prevents phasing from occurring. It only has the Arctic Front passing through late Tuesday night dropping an inch or 2 of snow. The CMC separates the energy associated with the Arctic Front and focuses on the southern stream energy instead.

Let's look at the CMC 7am Tuesday morning

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front Gem_z500_vort_us_19

Look how the southern energy hangs back in Texas. It is also very potent.

Now the GFS same time frame...

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front Gfs_z500_vort_us_18

The southern energy is essentially connected to the energy associated with the arctic front. Notice how it drapes across Texas then up to the Great Lakes. MAIN POINT: CMC KEEPS THESE ENTITIES SEPARATED

I do not have access to the EURO this year but I found this image of the EURO Ensembles.

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front 4A0C552A-9B33-4160-BC35-97EBC9CF66F5.png.fc244d0e1ce318fbe7cee8d53a389561

It is definitely in the CMC camp and not the GFS camp with developing a coastal storm. As long as the PV stays back far enough to not interfere with the phasing, then we could be in good shape. Refer back to the first image I posted. We have a +PNA (too far west for my liking but better than nothing), a -EPO and a developing -NAO. The NAO is key here too. If there are signs of weakness it could prevent the phasing from happening along the coast. We need a nice -NAO, -EPO, and southern stream energy to stay disconnect from the arctic front. If these things happen we will see a Mothrazilla or Godzilla type of storm. New England is in a much better position than we are to seeing something 'pop.'

And if we do not get the coastal it likely means we're getting the arctic front. I never want to use the phrase win-win scenario, not in this winter, but with all that cold and energy around it I truly think something comes from it.

Let's see what happens.

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Post by billg315 on Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:54 am

I've kind of felt the GFS has even been "hinting" at this without showing it. If you look at what it does on the backside of that arctic front as it hits the coast, it is a little more "amped up" with snow than you would usually see with this type of frontal passage and has the "look" of trying to develop something. If, that is, you believe sometimes models can sometimes hint at something before fully adopting it in the verbatim outputs. Maybe I've just been seeing what I want to. lol. Either way, will be interesting to watch.
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Post by billg315 on Fri Jan 25, 2019 10:02 am

Be interesting to see where the NAM comes in on this when it gets in range tomorrow morning.
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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 25, 2019 11:11 am

GFS showing a cold arctic front - Aanfront type snow squall line, CMC and EURO EPS pop a coastal that woudl be for NNJ on north as per model runs - I dont like looking at OP runs for this stuff at this range but the GEFS is much more amped and wetter than its operational. It like a line of T-storm frontal passage.


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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Jan 25, 2019 1:32 pm

Lol. 12Z Euro. Shows miller b redevelopment off Delmarva and bombs out to 985 over eastern CT. Tad too far west but believe it’d produce verbatim.

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Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 25, 2019 1:41 pm

heehaw453 wrote:Lol. 12Z Euro. Shows miller b redevelopment off Delmarva and bombs out to 985 over eastern CT. Tad too far west but believe it’d produce verbatim.

Changes aloft cont in a subtle manor across the modeling, but the changes have been encouraging.  Still work to do

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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Jan 25, 2019 1:52 pm

More work to do, but I'd sign up for that run right now because I believe it'd produce a lot more than what the snow output shows. It will be interesting, but of course expectations are so low that disappointment is not likely.

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Jan 25, 2019 1:57 pm

sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Lol. 12Z Euro. Shows miller b redevelopment off Delmarva and bombs out to 985 over eastern CT. Tad too far west but believe it’d produce verbatim.

Changes aloft cont in a subtle manor across the modeling, but the changes have been encouraging.  Still work to do

We Track!!  What a Face

question are there maps being posted? I am not seeing any..just curious
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Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 25, 2019 2:30 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Lol. 12Z Euro. Shows miller b redevelopment off Delmarva and bombs out to 985 over eastern CT. Tad too far west but believe it’d produce verbatim.

Changes aloft cont in a subtle manor across the modeling, but the changes have been encouraging.  Still work to do

We Track!!  What a Face

question are there maps being posted? I am not seeing any..just curious

I have not posted any maps

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Jan 25, 2019 2:35 pm

Mt Holly has been checking in here apparently:

"There is potential with this system for some decent snow, especially in the northwest CWA and especially if a solution like the ECMWF or CMC verifies."

But they also say this:
"Farther south and east, temperatures are more marginal, so snow amounts would be lower
(which would also be true if the storm`s track trends westward)."

Just curious, if this low actually does track east off the coast to the point that the whole coastal plain is on the NW quadrant of the precip shield, could it STILL be warm enough for the coast to rain/mix at that point?

Ha ha... that sure would be a fitting outcome for this winter...but could that actually happen given the actual pieces in play for this go 'round?

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Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 25, 2019 2:37 pm

Here are both the 12z GFS and Euro 500mb.  The main difference between the two is how strong the southern energy is and placement of the polar vortex.  GFS he southern energy is weaker and gets sheared out because the PV dives further south than the Euro.  Euro is a more elongated PV that interacts with a stronger southern energy that phases and tilts entire trough negative. A lot to sort out

GFS:

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front Gfs_z513
Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front Gfs_z514

EURO:

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front Ecmwf_69
Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front Ecmwf_70

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
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WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
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Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
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Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 25, 2019 2:42 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:Mt Holly has been checking in here apparently:

"There is potential with this system for some decent snow, especially in the northwest CWA and especially if a solution like the ECMWF or CMC verifies."

But they also say this:
"Farther south and east, temperatures are more marginal, so snow amounts would be lower
(which would also be true if the storm`s track trends westward)."

Just curious, if this low actually does track east off the coast to the point that the whole coastal plain is on the NW quadrant of the precip shield, could it STILL be warm enough for the coast to rain/mix at that point?

Ha ha... that sure would be a fitting outcome for this winter...but could that actually happen given the actual pieces in play for this go 'round?

I would say if the arctic frontal boundary gets off the coast and the LP wave forms along it to our S&E and additional energy from a spoke of the PV dives into the back side then we all snow. But if the arctic boundary stalls and the southern energy comes in ahead it then maybe there could be some boundary layer issues related to exact track

_________________
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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 25, 2019 2:47 pm

EURO BOOYAHH!!

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front DxxuTzlWsAIcr9H

ILL take it an drun.......................
Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front FB_IMG_1548440871286.thumb.jpg.de4459298ddfdf6bd5f0f9bc989ca4c1

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Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Jan 25, 2019 2:58 pm

sroc4 wrote:
SENJsnowman wrote:Mt Holly has been checking in here apparently:

"There is potential with this system for some decent snow, especially in the northwest CWA and especially if a solution like the ECMWF or CMC verifies."

But they also say this:
"Farther south and east, temperatures are more marginal, so snow amounts would be lower
(which would also be true if the storm`s track trends westward)."

Just curious, if this low actually does track east off the coast to the point that the whole coastal plain is on the NW quadrant of the precip shield, could it STILL be warm enough for the coast to rain/mix at that point?

Ha ha... that sure would be a fitting outcome for this winter...but could that actually happen given the actual pieces in play for this go 'round?

I would say if the arctic frontal boundary gets off the coast and the LP wave forms along it to our S&E and additional energy from a spoke of the PV dives into the back side then we all snow.  But if the arctic boundary stalls and the southern energy comes in ahead it then maybe there could be some boundary layer issues related to exact track

Excellent. Thank you SROC. So, for us on the coast, it's not just whether a coastal low develops off the coast, which has to happen, but also where the frontal boundary sets up- on or off the coast. A tougher bulls-eye to hit generally speaking, but this also leads to a higher reward due to increased qpfs and better chance for banding generally speaking, right?

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 25, 2019 3:47 pm

amugs wrote:EURO BOOYAHH!!

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front DxxuTzlWsAIcr9H

ILL take it an drun.......................
Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front FB_IMG_1548440871286.thumb.jpg.de4459298ddfdf6bd5f0f9bc989ca4c1
its warm that's inland how would it snow except into northern my pa and new England?
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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 25, 2019 4:18 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:EURO BOOYAHH!!

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front DxxuTzlWsAIcr9H

ILL take it an drun.......................
Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front FB_IMG_1548440871286.thumb.jpg.de4459298ddfdf6bd5f0f9bc989ca4c1
its warm that's inland how would it snow except into northern ?? my pa and new England?
Huh where do u see warmth there?  Its an arctic front .

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Post by sroc4 on Fri Jan 25, 2019 4:45 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:EURO BOOYAHH!!

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front DxxuTzlWsAIcr9H

ILL take it an drun.......................
Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front FB_IMG_1548440871286.thumb.jpg.de4459298ddfdf6bd5f0f9bc989ca4c1
its warm that's inland how would it snow except into northern ?? my pa and new England?
Huh where do u see warmth there?  Its an arctic front .

Its a tricky set up. Thermal profiles will be diff to pin point. There is much to be ironed out here.  As modeled the image Mugsy posted above looks like this at the surface and 925mb.  (Note: 850 is below freezing over the entrire area).  Just look at the diff at the surface.  the diff between 34* and 24* is only a few miles.  At 925 the diff between -12* and +1* is only a few miles.  Like every storm thermal profiles need to be taken with a grain of salt at this lead time.  How the the upper level features interact is still up in the air so Im focused on that first.  

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front Ecmwf_71
Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front Ecmwf_73

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front Ecmwf_72

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
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WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
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March 2nd 3.5"
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Post by SENJsnowman on Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:03 pm

I'm limited here, but I don't recall that type of temp profile for a storm where freezing lines are that vertical...so the whole Jersey Coast is below freezing at all levels and all of long island and all of so ne are not???

I only go back to '12-13 up here, and I'm wrong a lot...but is that as rare as it seems to me for a winter storm setup?

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Post by billg315 on Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:47 pm

18z NAM is not in range for the event, but as of Tuesday morning 500mb southern energy seems to be back over TX similar to the Tuesday morning CMC Frank posted above. Maybe a good sign?
Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front C6586d10
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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Jan 25, 2019 5:58 pm

This has potential to produce something more, but I feel it will be like what GFS is depicting. A quick moving arctic front that is rain to snow yielding a C-1. It's been pretty darned consistent with that.

The lack of blocking IMO has really hurt this winter. Storms cut or move way too close for any chance at anything meaningful. The blocking always seems to be just 10 short days away and then the slider bar moves again.

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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:01 pm

heehaw453 wrote:This has potential to produce something more, but I feel it will be like what GFS is depicting.  A quick moving arctic front that is rain to snow yielding a C-1.  It's been pretty darned consistent with that.  

The lack of blocking IMO has really hurt this winter.  Storms cut or move way too close for any chance at anything meaningful.  The blocking always seems to be just 10 short days away and then the slider bar moves again.  
You can get a quick developing LP on an arctic front and blocking isn't it all for this set up.

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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 25, 2019 7:04 pm

And the GEGS agree, says GFS OP say what I am agree g with the WPS in the formation.

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front ?format=go&jsonp=vglnk_154846095941413&key=e1e7dc862af11f29652fc542d68928ac&libId=jrcpn3250102n0l7000MAlahcgcep&loc=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Ftopic%2F1564-eastern-us-jan-2019-pattern-forecast-discussion-2%2F%3Fpage%3D66&v=1&out=https%3A%2F%2Fs3.amazonaws.com%2F33andrain%2Fmonthly_2019_01%2FADEF950B-CE83-43C6-8AF0-91EECAB7B5E1.gif.d2134390a69e52187d86ee37c7475932.gif&ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2F&title=%5BEastern%20US%5D%20Jan

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Post by amugs on Fri Jan 25, 2019 8:46 pm

EPS baby riding it like seasbiscit peeps all the way!!

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front 5c4bb510
Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front Sketch10

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:06 pm

Ok no need bite my head off I saw low west of city and snow map doesn't show much from west of city on east. But yes we can't take temp profiles verbatim not this far put anyways. Ill root for anything that will get me a snow day. I get 2 a year and is like to get them Damn it lol
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Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front Empty Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Jan 25, 2019 9:07 pm

amugs wrote:EPS baby riding it like seasbiscit peeps all the way!!

Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front 5c4bb510
Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front Sketch10
now that looks great even for coast.
jmanley32
jmanley32
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Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front Empty Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

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