Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Jan 29, 2019 10:50 am

currently 33* nothing happening here.
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 10:54 am

hyde345 wrote:The main event with this system was always expected to be from about 5pm today until midnight as wave develops along the front. Those of us that remain all snow should not have a problem seeing 3-4 inches as it will snow at rates approaching an inch an hour. If there is a mix then who knows. Right now 22* with a steady light/moderate snow and a dusting. Schools closed today too which is really funny.

Agree with that that heaviest rates were from 0Z - 5Z, but there was supposed to be an inch or two before that.  That's a lot of the total...  

But maybe radar will start filling in soon  tongue

One thing is for sure, GFS has been really consistent with this storm. It's like a verbatim output each run.




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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by Irish on Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:03 am

I saw a few flakes fall as if someone with dandruff was on the roof above me. Otherwise, nada. Still forecast to get rain this evening.

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by amugs on Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:08 am

COME TO POPPA!! Moderate band here now - wooo hoooooooooooooooo


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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by amugs on Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:11 am

FV3 has not wavered on the snowfall amounts for this storm and its predecessor the GFS says its cold too and has been consistent with amounts. Interesting - EPS showed this type last week then went warmer.
We'll see

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by amugs on Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:12 am

Looks to be streaming from the SE to NE here - interesting

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by Fededle22 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 12:21 pm

Mugs
I thought a secondary low was supposed to form along the front and come up the coast this evening. Will all this moisture moving NE get transferred to that low or is this just overrunning event along the front prior to that low forming?
I am a rookie so please forgive if this is way off.
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:04 pm

The precip really filled in over the past hour or so. If you look at the past radar for Virginia, Maryland, DC, PA area, some massive gaps filled in big time over the past half hour.
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by docstox12 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:07 pm

bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:The precip really filled in over the past hour or so. If you look at the past radar for Virginia, Maryland, DC, PA area, some massive gaps filled in big time over the past half hour.

Yes, good point, I have been watching the radar all morning and it's filling in better and better.Long train of moisture from down south.

23 degrees light snow.Calm winds.
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by SENJsnowman on Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:21 pm

TWC future radar tends to be pretty accurate for 4-5 hours once a storm (such as it is) has started. Presently it shows the precip getting stronger in LHV thruout the afternoon, but also has that r/s line creeping up to as far north as pkpsee by 4-5 pm. Everything from about 10 mi w of the river all the way east into southern NE is rain by then.

Keep on chugging while you can guys , and then we'll see what happens

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by photec on Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:40 pm

Nothing down here yet, but state offices in Trenton are closing at 1:30-2:00 pm.

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:41 pm

SENJsnowman wrote:TWC future radar tends to be pretty accurate for 4-5 hours once a storm (such as it is) has started.  Presently it shows the precip getting stronger in LHV thruout the afternoon, but also has that r/s line creeping up to as far north as pkpsee by 4-5 pm. Everything from about 10 mi w of the river  all the way east into southern NE is rain by then.

Keep on chugging while you can guys , and then we'll see what happens

That future radar is pretty much the GFS projection. If GFS is correct LHV will get 6" and EPA about 4-5" which is really best case scenario. The one thing you cannot ignore is GFS's consistency from the onset.

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by Dunnzoo on Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:47 pm

I would have about .5" if it stuck everywhere. Accumulation on dirt, a few grassy patches and some concrete surfaces that are not flush to the ground(steps, ramps). Done for now, we'll see what happens later. Temp at 33.1°

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by Vinnydula on Tue Jan 29, 2019 1:56 pm

All rain now temp up to you 37
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by amugs on Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:07 pm

Still light snow here in Allendale.
We'll see what happens this afternoon and tonight.
Freddie right idea from what you posted

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by hyde345 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:30 pm

27 and continued light snow, 1.5 OTG
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by docstox12 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:31 pm

Snow stopped here 30 minutes ago.
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by hyde345 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:37 pm

docstox12 wrote:Snow stopped here 30 minutes ago.

It will pick up again soon. Heaviest snow should be between 4 and 10.
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by hyde345 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:47 pm

Where is RB?
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by docstox12 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:06 pm

light snow started again at 3 PM.
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by jimv45 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:38 pm

Rain and sleet now mixing in 31. The mix line is moving north now.

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by docstox12 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:41 pm

jimv45 wrote:Rain and sleet now mixing in 31. The mix line is moving north now.


Wow, that's a kick in the head jimv, NWS had us all snow for this.I'm laughing because they closed the Chester Schools today with barely an inch falling.Radar shows moderate snow over me but nothing falling,LOL.I've seen this before,LOL.
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:44 pm

Flemington is right on the temp gradient right now. Temps 5 miles to our south are 38-40. 5 miles to our north 33.
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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by 1190ftalt on Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:47 pm

Almost 2 inches on the ground at 1190 feet altitude in Stillwater NJ, starting to come down good now, Temperature is 28 degrees, fine snowflakes but starting to come down good !

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:48 pm

i had decent rates for last 1.5 hours, but mostly white rain unfortunately as I've been steady at 32.5 degrees. 1/2" out of it. Until surface temperatures drop this will be garbage, but at least it snowed...

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Re: Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

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