Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front

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Post by jimv45 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:50 pm

Yes Doc they closed the school here to. I think the schools felt sorry for the kids with all this rain and non events.

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Post by hyde345 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 3:59 pm

28* with moderate snow, nearly 2 inches so far. Hopefully mixing stays south of me.


Last edited by hyde345 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:00 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by jimv45 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:00 pm

mix heading to hyde

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Post by hyde345 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:02 pm

jimv45 wrote:mix heading to hyde

Hope not. still all snow. I'll let you know if it does though.
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Post by jimv45 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:05 pm

Hope it stays south of you Hyde but don't bank on it, just can't seem to see all snow this year.

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Post by jimv45 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:06 pm

Raining and 31 here.

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Post by hyde345 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:10 pm

jimv45 wrote:Raining and 31 here.

Where are you located? Wappingers? Fishkill?
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:11 pm

Probably .5"/hr rate now. Sun going down won't hurt the cause. surface right at 32. Still too warm though. damn.

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Post by jimv45 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:11 pm

Hopewell Jct

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Post by hyde345 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:15 pm

Ok, you are southeastern Dutchess. We are about 25 miles apart which might make all the difference with this system.
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Post by jimv45 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:18 pm

Yes hope for you! It will go back later to snow here but not expecting more then an inch.

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Post by hyde345 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:19 pm

jimv45 wrote:Yes hope for you!  It will go back later to snow here but not expecting more then an inch.

I have 2 inches OTG. What do you have right now?
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:26 pm

39 and raining. Not expecting any wintry precip here. My school in white plains cancelled am bussing but I still have to go in for possible parent drop offs. Rest of other staff group stays home till 10. Blah in hindsight our group got the entire day for nov storm.
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Post by jimv45 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:28 pm

Hyde I have wet grounds with just a trace of snow left on grass.

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Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:31 pm

38* and raining. Had snow flurries this morning. Now into the rain. I guess it will go over to snow before ending this evening but not sure anything will stick because the temp may not drop below freezing until the precip ends. At best I'll get a coating here. As expected.
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Post by hyde345 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:32 pm

jimv45 wrote:Hyde I have wet grounds with just a trace of snow left on grass.

That sucks. That 25 miles north and west(right near river) of you is making a big difference with this one.
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Post by jimv45 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:34 pm

My Siberians are really getting upset will this weather, can't use the sleds in this slop!!  They sit where i keep them in the shed and cry.

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Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:43 pm

Definitely a setup for some icy roads and walkways later tonight and tomorrow morning. In areas like Central and Northeast Jersey I think the transition to snow will be relatively short-lived and will mainly melt on most paved surfaces (except maybe some rooftops, cars and grassy surfaces), but the temp will drop below freezing quickly after the precip stops. Untreated roads and sidewalks will not have enough time to dry. Be careful of slippery spots overnight and tomorrow morning. Will be interesting to see if we get a good squall line from the passing of the secondary front tomorrow afternoon. For more southern areas on this board that actually looks like a better chance for actual snow accumulation than this evening.
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 4:49 pm

Heavy snow! 31.5 degrees and sticking nicely now to all surfaces. 1.5" on cold surfaces. wind is now out of the nnw which should kill that warmer fetch.

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Post by Dtone on Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:09 pm

Radar looks nice, line of snow central VA to DC up to N&W of NYC. Such is the view from the rainy 43 degree side.

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Post by Vinnydula on Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:10 pm

Stuck at 37 here all rain.
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Post by amugs on Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:19 pm

Rain here at 37*
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A low along the cold front will move across this evening at the
surface. The timeframe for remaining precipitation will be
through 06-07Z Wed.

The height falls continue at 500mb. The main shortwave moving
along the southeast periphery of a longwave trough moves near
and south of the region this evening. The will increase positive
vorticity advection making for a bulk of precip between 00-06Z
Wed.

There will be potential for widespread snow on the back end
with the cold air advection on the W-NW flow late this evening
into the overnight. This will be quite brief for locations east
of NYC. The front itself with low pressure developing along it
moves across. The increase in low level omega will provide
vertical forcing and drier air infiltrating the region will
allow for wet bulb cooling with the lingering rain transitioning
along coastal areas to lingering snow.

For interior areas and now including Northern New Haven, will
have most snow accumulation in the evening, mostly 3-5 inches.
So, winter weather advisory includes same areas as before but
now includes Northern New Haven CT.

Will have to watch for coastal areas turning back over to snow
on back side of low with that colder air advecting in on the
westerly flow. High end potential for around 2 inches of snow at
the coast with this but likely 1 inch or less while interior
areas could get 1-2 inches higher than forecast. Temperatures
overnight into early Wed drop below freezing making for areas of
black ice.

Brief high pressure enters the region late tonight with a
decrease in clouds. Cold air advection continues on the westerly
flow which will become more gusty. Lows were taken from a
consensus of raw data, mid teens to mid 20s for most of the
area.

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Post by amugs on Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:27 pm

Snow squalls tomorrow are gonna be crazy peeps - Coating to 2" is possible with white out condition s- these are being modeled stronger with each run and the soundings are supportive if not stronger that what is being shown.
From noon to 5pm ish for the area.
Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front - Page 7 DyG_GVQXgAAcgWX
Close Up
Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front - Page 7 Ecmwf_wchill_nyc_9
Behind this arctic front temps drop like a rock bigly!!
Wind Chills Thursday morning range from -15 to -25 Below zero for the area
Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front - Page 7 Ecmwf_chill_3h_ne_17

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:32 pm

Heavy snow continues; 31.5 degrees and light west wind which continues to push back the mix line. 2.5" otg. I'm getting at least 4" out of this storm based on radar. The GFS precision for my area on this was simply ridiculous. Nice call by Frank on this too!

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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:33 pm

amugs wrote:Snow squalls tomorrow are gonna be crazy peeps - Coating to 2" is possible with white out condition s- these are being modeled stronger with each run and the soundings are supportive if not stronger that what is being shown.
From noon to 5pm ish for the area.
Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front - Page 7 DyG_GVQXgAAcgWX
Close Up
Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front - Page 7 Ecmwf_wchill_nyc_9
Behind this arctic front temps drop like a rock bigly!!
Wind Chills Thursday morning range from -15 to -25 Below zero for the area
Tracking 01-30 Arctic Front - Page 7 Ecmwf_chill_3h_ne_17

This to me is going to be unbelievable for those lucky enough to get under the squalls! It will be quite a show!

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