Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

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Post by amugs on Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:24 pm

Peeps,
Friday night through Saturday late morning storm has gotten legs and is a sneaky coastal. Euro and Gfs get this are on the same page some what! Imagine that.
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Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 Img_2029

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Post by amugs on Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:26 pm

Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 Gfs_as10

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Post by amugs on Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:27 pm

LET'S DO THIS!!!!

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Post by Vinnydula on Thu Feb 28, 2019 8:38 pm

Even though I'm ready for spring bring on winter!
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Post by amugs on Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:14 pm

Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 Img_2030
Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 Img_2031
Love the look of each EPS mean is better than Barney and the probability of a warning level storm is better than we've had. 
Watch our Boy who cried wolf NJ Governor call for a SOE!!

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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:15 pm

12K NAM is a friggin mauling for Saturday storm. In a good way.

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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:22 pm

Looks like close to 6” for nyc anD northern nj. Probably not done trending this too.

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:25 pm

amugs wrote:Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 Img_2030
Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 Img_2031
Love the look of each EPS mean is better than Barney and the probability of a warning level storm is better than we've had. 
Watch our Boy who cried wolf NJ Governor call for a SOE!!
this also includes monday what does model show just through sat?
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:48 pm

3km nam shows a few hrs of light snow for sat maybe at most 2-4 including tonight so more like 1-2/3, trust in SR models at this point IMO
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Post by dkodgis on Thu Feb 28, 2019 9:53 pm

Mugs, I am Dr. Yes
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Post by amugs on Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:05 pm

3K name is at its extended range for Sat. We are not look g at 1-3 for Saturday Jman.
It's has the e armark of a warning level criteria storm. I have not started a thread for a storm since last year March, ride my coat tails to what could be our best storm of this putrid winter.
12 K 0zNAM just plowed us under in its run
Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 ?format=go&jsonp=vglnk_155140935230115&key=e1e7dc862af11f29652fc542d68928ac&libId=jspfrtt30102n0l7000MAe1j8w34j&loc=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Ftopic%2F1598-friday-31-saturday-32-sn-sneaky-coastal%2F%3Fpage%3D13%26tab%3Dcomments%23comment-138993&v=1&out=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.tropicaltidbits.com%2Fanalysis%2Fmodels%2Fnamconus%2F2019030100%2Fnamconus_apcpn_neus_13.png&ref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain
Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 Namcon10Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 Namcon10

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Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:48 pm

HOLY GFS!
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 10:58 pm

Wow GFS gives all of CT 10-14 literally 25 miles away sees double my snowfall + (GFS shows 5 inches here). Anyway we can get this to intensify sooner and give us a big storm or is it too little too late once it starts going? Beantown and cape get a high end godzilla damnit. Even you soul, you see about 7-10 versus my 5 and we are nearly neighbors, thats crazy.
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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:01 pm

Models are 3 days out from Sunday night. They couldn’t be more different how to handle the solution. Even Saturdays event’s solution is quite different among the models. Like many have said just have to take one event at a time.


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Post by sroc4 on Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:03 pm

Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 Fc746b10

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Feb 28, 2019 11:12 pm

I have to stop working late.

7 inches Saturday IMBY? I never saw this coming, provided of course it actually happens. Which this winter I have my doubts, even this close to the event.

amugs wrote:Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 Gfs_as10
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Post by docstox12 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:34 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I have to stop working late.

7 inches Saturday IMBY? I never saw this coming, provided of course it actually happens. Which this winter I have my doubts, even this close to the event.

amugs wrote:Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 Gfs_as10

I am skeptical of these next two storms, this pattern has destroyed the winter since November 15, 3 1/2 solid months, but it sure is due to change.Hopefully, these next two storms do that.It's March 1st, and as Sinatra would say...."and so, the end is near, my friends we've reached, the final curtain"!
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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:37 am

NAM has good snow for EPA on this one. I can understand how it’s possible but skeptical for now.

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Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:21 am

Here is a first call snow map for this one.  After looking at things Im worried about a warm nose between 750mb and 850mb level that could cut down on totals. Area Im most worried about is S&E of the yellow line.  Ill adjust pending todays High res S/R models if needed.  

Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 First_10

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by algae888 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:36 am

sroc4 wrote:Here is a first call snow map for this one.  After looking at things Im worried about a warm nose between 750mb and 850mb level that could cut down on totals.  Area Im most worried about is S&E of the yellow line.  Ill adjust pending todays High res S/R models if needed.  

Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 First_10
Scott if I'm not mistaken this is your first snowfall map this entire winter season except maybe for the November storm what a horrible winter it was hopefully we can make up for it in the next week to 10 days
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Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:37 am

Al unfort you are 100% correct. And Im pretty sure I did not make a snow map back in Nov. But its been so long ago and Im getting older now so the memory is fuzzy. lol

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by rb924119 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:40 am

sroc4 wrote:Here is a first call snow map for this one.  After looking at things Im worried about a warm nose between 750mb and 850mb level that could cut down on totals.  Area Im most worried about is S&E of the yellow line.  Ill adjust pending todays High res S/R models if needed.  

Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 First_10

Very nice map, Scott. Aside from a slight northward adjustment that I would apply, that’s nearly identical to what I think as well (maybe 1-3 instead of 2-4, but that’s really splitting hairs lol).

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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:46 am

sroc4 wrote:Here is a first call snow map for this one.  After looking at things Im worried about a warm nose between 750mb and 850mb level that could cut down on totals.  Area Im most worried about is S&E of the yellow line.  Ill adjust pending todays High res S/R models if needed.  

Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 First_10

I think a good call for now.

The soundings for EPA are very close to freezing at 750 - 850 during the first couple of hours of the precip and get progressively warmer towards the coast. If this thing can wind up a little bit off the coast these numbers are very achievable and honestly your backyard in Suffolk County could really do well with this. Moreover, there is a high in Quebec which helps with cold air supply.


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Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:48 am

Yeah Ray. As my 1-3/2-4 dividing line approaches Manhattan I was torn about making the 1-3 include everything south of my yellow line from just west of the city and all points east. My c-1/1-3 would stay the same. But my gut, and perhaps it’s some wish casting, tells me the we get just enough phasing and cold air to change back to snow as the low is passing near the BM.  The real phasing doesn’t come until it’s well past us but we’ll see.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by rb924119 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:53 am

sroc4 wrote:Yeah Ray. As my 1-3/2-4 dividing line approaches Manhattan I was torn about making the 1-3 include everything south of my yellow line from just west of the city and all points east. My c-1/1-3 would stay the same. But my gut, and perhaps it’s some wish casting, tells me the we get just enough phasing and cold air to change back to snow as the low is passing near the BM.  The real phasing doesn’t come until it’s well past us but we’ll see.

I just don’t think that there will be strong enough forcing to really maximize your snow growth. Nothing really gets going until it’s already passing us by (forcing-wise), so I think by the time the precipitation field/best dendritic growth starts to respond it will already be east of most of us. Whatever we do get will likely be tainted as you stated above due to the stale airmass in place and nothing synoptically to help reinforce the cold air. The warm air should largely win out again for most except for a narrow band on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield. At least in my opinion lol

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