Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

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Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:25 am

rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Yeah Ray. As my 1-3/2-4 dividing line approaches Manhattan I was torn about making the 1-3 include everything south of my yellow line from just west of the city and all points east. My c-1/1-3 would stay the same. But my gut, and perhaps it’s some wish casting, tells me the we get just enough phasing and cold air to change back to snow as the low is passing near the BM.  The real phasing doesn’t come until it’s well past us but we’ll see.

I just don’t think that there will be strong enough forcing to really maximize your snow growth. Nothing really gets going until it’s already passing us by (forcing-wise), so I think by the time the precipitation field/best dendritic growth starts to respond it will already be east of most of us. Whatever we do get will likely be tainted as you stated above due to the stale airmass in place and nothing synoptically to help reinforce the cold air. The warm air should largely win out again for most except for a narrow band on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield. At least in my opinion lol

Well there is def a neg tilt to the associated trough even if the trough is weak.  If the GFS is handling this 250mb JS better than the euro than there is your mechanism for enhanced vertical motion.  GFS is similar at 300mb as well. However, as usual the Euro is completely diff in its strength and orientation of said JS.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
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WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
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Feb 28th 0.25"
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Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:31 am

sroc4 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Yeah Ray. As my 1-3/2-4 dividing line approaches Manhattan I was torn about making the 1-3 include everything south of my yellow line from just west of the city and all points east. My c-1/1-3 would stay the same. But my gut, and perhaps it’s some wish casting, tells me the we get just enough phasing and cold air to change back to snow as the low is passing near the BM.  The real phasing doesn’t come until it’s well past us but we’ll see.

I just don’t think that there will be strong enough forcing to really maximize your snow growth. Nothing really gets going until it’s already passing us by (forcing-wise), so I think by the time the precipitation field/best dendritic growth starts to respond it will already be east of most of us. Whatever we do get will likely be tainted as you stated above due to the stale airmass in place and nothing synoptically to help reinforce the cold air. The warm air should largely win out again for most except for a narrow band on the northern fringe of the precipitation shield. At least in my opinion lol

Well there is def a neg tilt to the associated trough even if the trough is weak.  If the GFS is handling this 250mb JS better than the euro than there is your mechanism for enhanced vertical motion.  GFS is similar at 300mb as well. However, as usual the Euro is completely diff in its strength and orientation of said JS.

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Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 - Page 2 25010
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NAM is similar with the JS

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
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WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by algae888 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:36 am

The latest hrrr is an all snow event for the Friday night Saturday system 3 to 4 in for the New York City metro area
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Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Mar 01, 2019 8:38 am

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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:21 am

12Z NAM is very enthusiastic about tonight. Maybe even more so than 06z.

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Post by Zhukov1945 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:28 am

heehaw453 wrote:12Z NAM is very enthusiastic about tonight. Maybe even more so than 06z.  


Can't post images from work but a healthy 6" across most of NJ except the far south.
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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:31 am

I think 4” max on this. 2-4” is a good call like sroc map.

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Post by algae888 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:37 am

The Nam is nearly a foot of snow for the two storms all snow for New York City metro. I wonder if today's snowfall is going to have an impact. Should help with low-level cold air and hence the track which the storm will take. Most models only had me with an inch or less I ended up with a slightly over 2 in which is common around most of the area today. first time I can't see my grass since November
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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:45 am

algae888 wrote:The Nam is nearly a foot of snow for the two storms all snow for New York City metro. I wonder if today's snowfall is going to have an impact. Should help with low-level cold air and hence the track which the storm will take. Most models only had me with an inch or less I ended up with a slightly over 2 in which is common around most of the area today. first time I can't see my grass since November

I feel along and especially NW of 95 will do very well. I’ve noticed the NAM adjust significantly colder temperatures with basically same track. Dynamics will most likely play a part.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:30 am

NWS only going with 1-2 inches for tonight in Orange County, but a fairly bullish 4-8 inches for Sunday night.

At the very least it should be an interesting weekend of tracking and nowcasting.
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Post by algae888 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:33 am

The rgem is also further Southeast then previously runs add the icon to that list with the n a m and so far all guidance is colder and further east with this system I would say in general 3 to 6 in across the area
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Post by algae888 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:40 am

The GFS is Way Southeast of yesterday in last night's runs a general 3 to 4 in across the New York City metro
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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:40 am

algae888 wrote:The rgem is also further Southeast then previously runs add the icon to that list with the n a m and so far all guidance is colder and further east with this system I would say in general 3 to 6 in across the area

Yeah even the stubborn GFS is kicking the low east instead of NE at the Delmarva. This would yield a colder type solution and the SNE folks are probably getting ready to lose it if this keeps up. They got teased by the Euro yesterday.

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Post by amugs on Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:18 am

You guys are underestimating the power of me starting a thread!!!

This has the earmarks of a mesoscale LP that will form off the Delmarva and spawn ENE - seen this tune before and folks get suckered.


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Post by amugs on Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:19 am

GFS BOOYAH BABY!!
Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 - Page 2 1989361082_ScreenShot2019-03-01at11_14_19AM.png.4ab34bd0215ff12c2bb341a3c5826a12

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Post by amugs on Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:00 pm

HREF - Ensemble pros use for High Resolution Models - says 2-4" - My personal belief is that those in NE NJ and LHV right exit region into SW CT see 3-4"

Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 - Page 2 Snowfall_012h_mean_ne.f02400.png.07abf7c9937ffc1d9e167dfe10575aac

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:06 pm

amugs wrote:HREF - Ensemble pros use for High Resolution Models - says 2-4" - My personal belief is that those in NE NJ and LHV right exit region into SW CT see 3-4"

Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019 - Page 2 Snowfall_012h_mean_ne.f02400.png.07abf7c9937ffc1d9e167dfe10575aac
I'll sign up for that before the main course Sunday/Monday.
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Post by algae888 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:14 pm

Add the UK to the list for a significant snowstorm this weekend hard to know the exact amount but looks like 8 to 12 in between the two storms for the New York metro area
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Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:18 pm

algae888 wrote:Add the UK to the list for a significant snowstorm this weekend hard to know the exact amount but looks like 8 to 12 in between the two storms for the New York metro area

First storm and second combined for the UKIE. It isnt real without the euro on board.

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_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 12:26 pm

Hrrr continues to tic colder and colder. The 95 remains all snow. 3-4”.

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Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:01 pm

Euro with another tick colder

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by amugs on Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:09 pm

3-5" baby!!NYC and N , LI, SW CT!

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Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:12 pm

sroc4 wrote:Euro  with another tick colder

And a tick warmer with the Sunday into Monday event

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by amugs on Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:13 pm

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Euro  with another tick colder

And a tick warmer with the Sunday into Monday event
Wrong thread Scott - start one for Sunday into Monday

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Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:17 pm

amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Euro  with another tick colder

And a tick warmer with the Sunday into Monday event
Wrong thread Scott - start one for Sunday into Monday

At work..no time. Quick update on euro overall.

_________________
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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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