Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:46 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Euro  with another tick colder

And a tick warmer with the Sunday into Monday event
Wrong thread Scott - start one for Sunday into Monday

At work..no time.  Quick update on euro overall.  

Tend to the animals Noah and I'll start one my man - no worries Smile

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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by heehaw453 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:55 pm

amugs wrote:3-5" baby!!NYC and N , LI, SW CT!




Very much inline with short range mesos. Approved!!!

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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by gigs68 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 1:57 pm

You know its been a bad winter when people are getting this excited over 3"
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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by heehaw453 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:01 pm

gigs68 wrote:You know its been a bad winter when people are getting this excited over 3"

So true

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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:37 pm

We don't live in Tug Hill or Truckee CA - so 3" is a decently solid storm for this area, the spoils of the last 10 years is at play.
The way this winter has gone you should be excited over this storm cause it has impacts on the next one bigly. Big Picture.

Who wants some Thunder??


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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by RJB8525 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 2:59 pm

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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by aiannone on Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:18 pm

18z NAM is nice for everyone north of CNJ

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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by aiannone on Fri Mar 01, 2019 3:32 pm

317 PM EST Fri Mar 1 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and sleet expected. Total accumulations of 2 to 4
inches expected, with the higher amounts expected farther west
and closer to the north shore.

* WHERE...Nassau and Northwestern Suffolk Counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to noon EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on slippery road conditions.
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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:05 pm

aiannone wrote:18z NAM is nice for everyone north of CNJ

that 32* line runs right thru my town!!!
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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by heehaw453 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:29 pm

Mt Holly and Upton's take on tonight.  Seems reasonable to me.   I think coastal NJ gets something out of this too. Seems pretty cold to me at midlevels.






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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by frank 638 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:36 pm

Upton has the city for 3 to 4 inches of snow I will take it after having a miserable horrible winter so far

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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 01, 2019 4:54 pm

NWS went from 2" at 7AM to 5" they read my posts here LOL!

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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by rb924119 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 5:45 pm

I think the NWS is much too high outside of southereastern New England. But that’s just me lol Scott’s map is much more reasonable, and even 4” I think will be largely unattainable. Personally my max would be a narrow strip of 1-3” just north of the City on a SW-NE axis.

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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:09 pm

amugs wrote:NWS went from 2" at 7AM to 5" they read my posts here LOL!

Or my FB page! Lol I started at 3-4 this morning and bumped it up to 4-5" earlier this afternoon..

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Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"
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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:24 pm

rb924119 wrote:I think the NWS is much too high outside of southereastern New England. But that’s just me lol Scott’s map is much more reasonable, and even 4” I think will be largely unattainable. Personally my max would be a narrow strip of 1-3” just north of the City on a SW-NE axis.

Beware the North Shore of LI. #microclimate.

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by heehaw453 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:33 pm

Latest Hrrr getting more aggressive with totals. 4”+.

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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 6:39 pm

sroc4 wrote: Ill adjust pending todays High res S/R models if needed.  


After a long day and week and now two glasses of vino, I don’t think I’m going to change much. Enjoy what you get and try not to get upset.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by frank 638 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:00 pm

sroc4 wrote:
sroc4 wrote: Ill adjust pending todays High res S/R models if needed.  


After a long day and week and now two glasses of vino, I don’t think I’m going to change much.  Enjoy what you get and try not to get upset.
thank you for your map u put up I'm happy when you put up for me I just want I will take anything for a lousy winter we were having so far

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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by heehaw453 on Fri Mar 01, 2019 7:39 pm

18Z euro about 5” for nyc area and epa. Not sure I believe that but at least it’s moving in right direction with support from mesos.

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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:19 pm

Latest HRRR looking amped. Has some localized 5 inch totals over northern Jersey.
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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by dkodgis on Fri Mar 01, 2019 9:36 pm

It is looking like the snow is starting later like about 3 am. Will it go longer then into tomorrow and end closer toward the start of Sat/Sun systemv
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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:29 pm

D starting by you about 1amish and ending around 7/8amish


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:48 pm

NICE BUMP on HI RES MODEL ENS


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 01, 2019 10:50 pm

Here it comes


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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

Post by Irish on Fri Mar 01, 2019 11:57 pm

Precip has started by me, all rain.

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Re: Sneaky Coastal Wave - Saturday March 2nd 2019

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