Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:20 pm

larryrock72 wrote:You see that SENJ? Winter storm warning for Ocean county. 2-4 inches. I don't know how true that holds for us coastal ocean folks but the alert was a surprise.

I wouldn't be surprised if here in northern ocean county gets more than 2-4
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Post by Sanchize06 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:25 pm

18z EURO, nice shift SE

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Post by Irish on Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:26 pm

Larry, winter storm warning or watch?

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Post by larryrock72 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:26 pm

You may be right. Northern ocean and Monmouth could do well. I'm still concerned about temps further south and east

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Post by larryrock72 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:28 pm

Irish, sorry. Watch not warning.

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Post by larryrock72 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:29 pm

Irish, you could have a decent storm in cnj

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Post by Irish on Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:30 pm

Ok, yeah, i'm wondering if it turns into an advisory or warning from here.

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Post by Irish on Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:31 pm

I'm hoping Larry cause we've gotten squat this year. 6 inches would be great. I just hope things don't swing the other way and we end up with 1 sloppy inch.

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Post by larryrock72 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:38 pm

Like I said I'm still concerned about temps. Barnegat only gets down to 34. I still like North and Northwest of me to get something decent. Irish, I think your do.

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Post by SENJsnowman on Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:50 pm

Not a banner start to your time on the forum Irish, huh?

I haven't had a chance to look in depth at the longer write ups by Frank, sroc, mugs etc..., but here is what I think is a safe bet at 24 hrs out from a south Jersey perspective:

Good likelihood of a bonafide winter storm from I-195 north (thru the LHV)
Decent shot for a moderate event in south Jersey, which is the best we can realistically hope for this time of year.
A real potential for banding, anywhere in striking distance of the low.
Trend has been, and if I'm right, continues to be, south and east, right towards us.

24 hrs later...? Does the trend continue? Or stop? Or reverse? Or does the storm weaken? Or strengthen?

And all of this comes with a really strong bust potential due to track and temps...which is ALWAYS the case. There's no way to avoid the uncertainty and we may very well get a no snow solution.

All in all, I L-O-V-E our spot right now...we in the game!!  And we are just off bulls-eye at a really swell time (shhhh.... Twisted Evil )

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Post by Irish on Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:31 pm

Yeah SENJ, i feel as though me joining this forum has brought the bad juju (and not Smith-Schuster), LoL. I'll take full blame for this winter not the mpo, or epo, OPP, NRA, nato, or naacp, just me.

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Post by Sanchize06 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:18 pm

0z NAM better than 18z, still think it's a tad warm, but we'll see. I guess it's possible if the precip is rather light toward the end of the storm, there could be a transition to light rain near NYC and SE

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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:19 pm

0Z NAM juicier precipitation but precipitation shield looks weird to me. I like the strengthening system 989 right to BM. I think it’s not figured it out quite yet but improved.

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:23 pm

Nam is colder
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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:25 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Nam is colder

That track and intensity I wouldn’t worry on temps too much.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:26 pm

NAM is less snow and further south, doesn't look ood to me, am I missing something? Now central to south jersey is the jackpot.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:27 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:27 pm

heehaw453 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Nam is colder

That track and intensity I wouldn’t worry on temps too much.

Exactly
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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:29 pm

It breaks the precipitation up sharply as it approaches the BM while it’s intensifying. I would think that not case.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:33 pm

heehaw453 wrote:It breaks the precipitation up sharply as it approaches the BM while it’s intensifying. I would think that not case.
Yeah it does its a bit concerning each run has had less and less snow, and now even rain getting into NYC area at the end. Less than 24 hrs out and we do not know whats going to happen, you would think technology would be better than that.
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Post by billg315 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:38 pm

If you look at 0z NAM at about 4 am, it is winding up off the coast, but very little precip wrapping around on the backside. Normally this is where we’d get good snows across NJ and NYC. That’s why the NAM shuts off the precip earlier. Not sure that is right.
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Post by billg315 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:40 pm

Weird that the snow picks up in intensity with the Low to our south, but as it slides to our east there isnt much on the backside and it just ends. That is the difference between a 4 or 5” event and a 9 or 10” event.
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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:48 pm

billg315 wrote:Weird that the snow picks up in intensity with the Low to our south, but as it slides to our east there isnt much on the backside and it just ends. That is the difference between a 4 or 5” event and a 9 or 10” event.

Agreed. We get to 10 with some dynamics. Don’t think WAA alone will be enough. My opinion anyway.

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Post by sroc4 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:12 pm

Rgem

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_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by Irish on Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:26 pm

I like that map, the dead center of that bullseye is my area! Bring it!

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Post by Sanchize06 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:30 pm

Rgem has been very consistent with the I-95 bullseye and pretty strong dynamics, something missing from the Nam

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