Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:03 am

Here are the latest maps.

Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 Icon_a10
Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 Fv3p_a10
Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 Gfs_as10
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:04 am

Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 Namcon14
Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 Nam3km11
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:45 am

NAM please!! WSW up for almost everyone, here in NYC metro and CT and westchester 6=8 on sunday into monday! That would put me at about normal for the year believe it or not if you include Nov. if I got 8 I would have roughly 25 inches including all the nickle and dimers and 3 today and 2 yesterday.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Mar 02, 2019 6:50 am

jmanley32 wrote:NAM please!! WSW up for almost everyone, here in NYC metro and CT and westchester 6=8 on sunday into monday! That would put me at about normal for the year believe it or not if you include Nov. if I got 8 I would have roughly 25 inches including all the nickle and dimers and 3 today and 2 yesterday.

If you use the current posted 30 year averages 1981-2010 in NYC it's 25.8 inches. The 150 year average is 28.8 inches and the average since 1991 which will be the starting period for the new 30 year averages is 30.5 inches.

It's most likely an inch or two more in Yonkers, so your normal would be in the 30-32 inch range.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:02 am

CTZ005>010-NJZ002-004-103-104-NYZ067>071-022230-
/O.NEW.KOKX.WS.A.0003.190303T1800Z-190304T1200Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.WW.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-190302T1700Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-
Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-
Orange-Putnam-Rockland-Northern Westchester-Southern Westchester-
341 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST
TODAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Snow today with additional snow accumulations of 2 to 4
inches. Moderate snow Sunday afternoon into Monday morning with
snow accumulations of 5 to 8 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northeastern New Jersey, most of southern
Connecticut and portions of southeastern New York.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until noon EST today.
For the Winter Storm Watch, from Sunday afternoon through
Monday morning.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 7:03 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:NAM please!! WSW up for almost everyone, here in NYC metro and CT and westchester 6=8 on sunday into monday! That would put me at about normal for the year believe it or not if you include Nov. if I got 8 I would have roughly 25 inches including all the nickle and dimers and 3 today and 2 yesterday.

If you use the current posted 30 year averages 1981-2010 in NYC it's 25.8 inches. The 150 year average is 28.8 inches and the average since 1991 which will be the starting period for the new 30 year averages is 30.5 inches.

It's most likely an inch or two more in Yonkers, so your normal would be in the 30-32 inch range.
Well alot closer than I had imagined, I ended past few years around 30 so been below average then but it's not a lot below.
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Post by sroc4 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:43 am

So a quick update for Sunday into Monday system.   I want to focus on the jet streak at approx 250mb



Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 Jet_st12



For those who don't know why Im focused on the jet streak:  The 250mb level is approx 34,000ft above sea level.  In the image above I intentionally drew a line though the center of the jet streak from SW to NE.  Now image the SW side being point A and NE side point B.  At point A the air at the level of the atmosphere begins to speed up.  As you travel along the line towards point B the speed conts to increase until some center point and then slows again as it approaches point B.  So image point A and B separately for a moment.  At point B the air is piling up because from the center point of the jet streak to point B the air is going from fast to slow.  However, At point A the air molecules are accelerating and racing away towards the center point and point B.  SO, when you have a jet streak where you have that air racing away you create an area of "divergence" in a horizontal plane.  The air from the lower levels rises up the column vertically in attempt to replace the air molecules that are racing away horizontally(Point A to point B) within the JS.  This vertical motion in the atmosphere is where we get "Low Pressure".  As we know rising air enhances precipitation.  Now where the best vertical motion takes place relative to the position of the jet streak will ALWAYS be found in the right rear quadrant and the Left front Quadrant of a jet streak.  To roughly examine where to expect the best lift draw a perpendicular line to the orientation of the JS through the approx. center point of the fastest part of the jet streak.  Look at the image above to see the approx. best lift at the surface relative to the euro models positioning the JS

Now back to our forecast.  I believe that the S&E trends are truly real here.  Why?  Several factors.  Watching the trends at where the TPV is trying to center itself over the N James bay region instead into the Hudson Bay is one reson.  The reason for this has been the trends to our -EPO ridge and the subtle higher heights reaching into the SW Greenland area that appear to be associated with the ULL that forms out over the NA which I outlined in prev discussion(BTW that ULL is compliments of the energy producing the snow we are seeing this morning)  The combo is "trapping" the TPV far enough S&E to keep our system far enough S&E.  Again subtle differences here over the next 24hrs can have huge implications for specific back yards.  

Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 Tpv10


However; At least with respect to our JS both euro GFS and some of the other modeling have been consistent with a JS to our N.  That tells me where the track of our system may want to follow as the JS enhances LP development futher S&E relative to where the track of the euro has had the system going(hugging the coast) the last few days.  LP tends to want to follolw the path of least resistance.  Keep in mind its the energy at 500mb(vorticity) that makes the storm(LP) at the surface, but the JS is an enhancer to the overall rising motion.  All this said nothing is set in stone right now, but I truley think the colder soln has legs.  Keep in mind the further S&E we go the worse it becomes for N&W.  Also if the JS is too far south then the precip shield can only expand so far N&W before you lose the rising motion on the NW flank and enter the dreaded subsidnece zone, again on the NW flank.  Anyway that's all for now.  Lets see what the models do today.  

Guess what???


WE TRACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!    What a Face


Last edited by sroc4 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:06 am; edited 3 times in total

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by mwilli on Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:54 am

im all in 4 today,tomorrow..but first shovel

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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 8:56 am

I think the ideal case is BM track with good intensification before it gets to BM. Maybe even slow it down a hair. If this is a weak wave that slides off the coast well SE of BM precip will be limited to more WAA type stuff and the cutoffs will be sharp. Rapid deepening may cause more CCB type stuff and that would be so much more of an event for most.

But let's see how things look when the energy is sampled today.

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Post by amugs on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:03 am

heehaw453 wrote:Gfs models are a bit too far SE imo. I think BM to slightly inside. But we’ll probably know more this evening.
SE bias in the suite.
6Z Euro caved things are looking good for a trifecta of storms. Big Momma balancing things out.

Scott yes great work as usual.

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Post by amugs on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:07 am

Today's storm is key to how the next storm.plays out Channel 7 goes Balls to walls this morning with their snowfall forecast. Bit surprised but can see this potential if things align.


Last edited by amugs on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:08 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by sroc4 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:08 am

sroc4 wrote:So a quick update for Sunday into Monday system.   I want to focus on the jet streak at approx 250mb



Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 Jet_st12



For those who don't know why Im focused on the jet streak:  The 250mb level is approx 34,000ft above sea level.  In the image above I intentionally drew a line though the center of the jet streak from SW to NE.  Now image the SW side being point A and NE side point B.  At point A the air at the level of the atmosphere begins to speed up.  As you travel along the line towards point B the speed conts to increase until some center point and then slows again as it approaches point B.  So image point A and B separately for a moment.  At point B the air is piling up because from the center point of the jet streak to point B the air is going from fast to slow.  However, At point A the air molecules are accelerating and racing away towards the center point and point B.  SO, when you have a jet streak where you have that air racing away you create an area of "divergence" in a horizontal plane.  The air from the lower levels rises up the column vertically in attempt to replace the air molecules that are racing away horizontally(Point A to point B) within the JS.  This vertical motion in the atmosphere is where we get "Low Pressure".  As we know rising air enhances precipitation.  Now where the best vertical motion takes place relative to the position of the jet streak will ALWAYS be found in the right rear quadrant and the Left front Quadrant of a jet streak.  To roughly examine where to expect the best lift draw a perpendicular line to the orientation of the JS through the approx. center point of the fastest part of the jet streak.  Look at the image above to see the approx. best lift at the surface relative to the euro models positioning the JS

Now back to our forecast.  I believe that the S&E trends are truly real here.  Why?  Several factors.  Watching the trends at where the TPV is trying to center itself over the N James bay region instead into the Hudson Bay is one reson.  The reason for this has been the trends to our -EPO ridge and the subtle higher heights reaching into the SW Greenland area that appear to be associated with the ULL that forms out over the NA which I outlined in prev discussion(BTW that ULL is compliments of the energy producing the snow we are seeing this morning)  The combo is "trapping" the TPV far enough S&E to keep our system far enough S&E.  Again subtle differences here over the next 24hrs can have huge implications for specific back yards.  

Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 Tpv10


However; At least with respect to our JS both euro GFS and some of the other modeling have been consistent with a JS to our N.  That tells me where the track of our system may want to follow as the JS enhances LP development futher S&E relative to where the track of the euro has had the system going(hugging the coast) the last few days.  LP tends to want to follolw the path of least resistance.  Keep in mind its the energy at 500mb(vorticity) that makes the storm(LP) at the surface, but the JS is an enhancer to the overall rising motion.  All this said nothing is set in stone right now, but I truley think the colder soln has legs.  Keep in mind the further S&E we go the worse it becomes for N&W.  Also if the JS is too far south then the precip shield can only expand so far N&W before you lose the rising motion on the NW flank and enter the dreaded subsidnece zone, again on the NW flank.  Anyway that's all for now.  Lets see what the models do today.  

Guess what???


WE TRACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!    What a Face

BTW for those who have read this already I edited it because I realized that the prev discussion regarding the Jet Streak was involving todays snow enhancement; however it still applies for Sunday/Monday. I added an additional map and some discussion from what I posted a little while ago. Sorry for the confusion.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by sroc4 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:12 am

amugs wrote:Today's storm is key to how the next storm.plays out Channel 7 goes Ballas to walls this morning with their snowfall forecast. Bit surprised but can see this potential if things align.

What did they say? Last night I was rolling my eyes a bit at Lee Goldberg when he said without hesitation or without a CYA that only N&W of the I-95 was going to see snow. The coast would see wintry mix and or rain and little to no accumulation. I usually trust Lee but last night by the 11pm broadcast I know he saw the trends and didn't say boo. I would have thought he would have at least said models have trended a little colder and further S&E so the morning/eekend team may have updates if the trneds cont. He usually does that.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by amugs on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:30 am

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Today's storm is key to how the next storm.plays out Channel 7 goes Ballas to walls this morning with their snowfall forecast. Bit surprised but can see this potential if things align.

What did they say?  Last night I was rolling my eyes a bit at Lee Goldberg when he said without hesitation or without a CYA that only N&W of the I-95 was going to see snow.  The coast would see wintry mix and or rain and little to no accumulation.  I usually trust Lee but last night by the 11pm broadcast I know he saw the trends and didn't say boo.  I would have thought he would have at least said models have trended a little colder and further S&E so the morning/eekend team may have updates if the trneds cont.  He usually does that.  [/quote

Amy just bitch slapped Lee and said snap out of it and went with this WOWZA!!
Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 D0pwO3GWoAAoRsE

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by heehaw453 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:35 am

Check out 12Z NAM track. If that verifies then cape May will do well.

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:37 am

amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Today's storm is key to how the next storm.plays out Channel 7 goes Ballas to walls this morning with their snowfall forecast. Bit surprised but can see this potential if things align.

What did they say?  Last night I was rolling my eyes a bit at Lee Goldberg when he said without hesitation or without a CYA that only N&W of the I-95 was going to see snow.  The coast would see wintry mix and or rain and little to no accumulation.  I usually trust Lee but last night by the 11pm broadcast I know he saw the trends and didn't say boo.  I would have thought he would have at least said models have trended a little colder and further S&E so the morning/eekend team may have updates if the trneds cont.  He usually does that.  [/quote

Amy just bitch slapped Lee and said snap out of it and went with this WOWZA!!
Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 D0pwO3GWoAAoRsE
That snow map is incorrect. With all the models trending colder that 6-12 zone needs to be shifted 50 miles SE to cover the city / northern and central Jersey.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:42 am

amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Today's storm is key to how the next storm.plays out Channel 7 goes Ballas to walls this morning with their snowfall forecast. Bit surprised but can see this potential if things align.

What did they say?  Last night I was rolling my eyes a bit at Lee Goldberg when he said without hesitation or without a CYA that only N&W of the I-95 was going to see snow.  The coast would see wintry mix and or rain and little to no accumulation.  I usually trust Lee but last night by the 11pm broadcast I know he saw the trends and didn't say boo.  I would have thought he would have at least said models have trended a little colder and further S&E so the morning/eekend team may have updates if the trneds cont.  He usually does that.  [/quote

Amy just bitch slapped Lee and said snap out of it and went with this WOWZA!!
Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 D0pwO3GWoAAoRsE
anyway that 6 to 12 gets down to city?
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:43 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Today's storm is key to how the next storm.plays out Channel 7 goes Ballas to walls this morning with their snowfall forecast. Bit surprised but can see this potential if things align.

What did they say?  Last night I was rolling my eyes a bit at Lee Goldberg when he said without hesitation or without a CYA that only N&W of the I-95 was going to see snow.  The coast would see wintry mix and or rain and little to no accumulation.  I usually trust Lee but last night by the 11pm broadcast I know he saw the trends and didn't say boo.  I would have thought he would have at least said models have trended a little colder and further S&E so the morning/eekend team may have updates if the trneds cont.  He usually does that.  [/quote

Amy just bitch slapped Lee and said snap out of it and went with this WOWZA!!
Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 D0pwO3GWoAAoRsE
That snow map is incorrect. With all the models trending colder that 6-12 zone needs to be shifted 50 miles SE to cover the city / northern and central Jersey.
dang u answered me while I was asking lol
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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:47 am

At this time I am thinking the storm Sunday night will be a widespread Mothrazilla event (6"+ snowfall). That is not to say some parts of the area will not see Godzilla amounts (12"+ snowfall), but to declare a Godzilla would mean a large swath of the area getting over a foot and right now I do not see it. But heck, 6"+ is nothing to sneeze at and it will be the largest event of the season for most.

Unfortunately, I do think those south of CNJ and parts of the Jersey Shore will flip to rain at some point. I'm having a tough time figuring out how FAR south though. Maybe just the Cape May area, or as far north as Point Pleasant? My preliminary snow map (Figure 3.0) shown below tries to take that into consideration. What you will also see in the images below are the temperatures. The 850mb/925mb are expected to be cold for this system. However, the surface temps look like they will be above freezing for some. You can see how the surface temps are in the upper 30's to low 40's for parts of the area which is why I'm hesitant of higher snow amounts there.

By looking at the 500mb set-up it's easy to see where the dynamics will come from. The coastal low associated with the southern stream is riding the SE Ridge (Figure 4.0), while the PV lobe sits just north of the Great Lakes pressing the trough S&E. The trough and confluent energy at 500mb is preventing this coastal storm from cutting to our west. However, there will not be a phase with northern stream energy. Its purely southern stream driven. This is the main reason why an organized coastal storm with a well defined center will not form. Nevertheless, it will be a fun event because of the dynamics.

Because of this 500mb set-up, upward motion (measured at 700mb) should be impressive. The VV (vertical velocity) maps prove it indeed is depending on the model you look at. The GFS (Figure 5.0) has +2 to +10 VV's throughout the area. Snowfall rates will not be too crazy but moderate enough. Meanwhile, the NAM (Figures 6.0 & 7.0), shows very impressive VV's that could result in 1"+/hour snowfall rates. But notice how the VV's are more concentrated here than they are widespread like the GFS. The greatest VV's tend to be closer to the baroclinic zone.

700mb frontogenesis is where you'll find a deformation band try to set-up. Your best lift and snow growth, often where best snowfall rates occur also, is found here. The NAM (Figure 8.0) does show some moderate frontogenesis for NYC and N&W. There could be a period of very heavy snow that falls overnight Sunday or early Monday morning, easily dropping a few inches in just a couple of hours.

Figure 3.0

Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 March-3-snow-map

Figure 4.0

Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_us_7

Figure 5.0

Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 VV-1

Figure 6.0 & 7.0

Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 VV-2-NAM

Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 VV-3-NAM

Figure 8.0

Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 Frontogenesis-NAM



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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:51 am

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:Today's storm is key to how the next storm.plays out Channel 7 goes Ballas to walls this morning with their snowfall forecast. Bit surprised but can see this potential if things align.

What did they say?  Last night I was rolling my eyes a bit at Lee Goldberg when he said without hesitation or without a CYA that only N&W of the I-95 was going to see snow.  The coast would see wintry mix and or rain and little to no accumulation.  I usually trust Lee but last night by the 11pm broadcast I know he saw the trends and didn't say boo.  I would have thought he would have at least said models have trended a little colder and further S&E so the morning/eekend team may have updates if the trneds cont.  He usually does that.  [/quote

Amy just bitch slapped Lee and said snap out of it and went with this WOWZA!!
Sun/Monday March 3rd-4th 2019 Storm - Page 3 D0pwO3GWoAAoRsE
anyway that 6 to 12 gets down to city?
The latest Nam has Philadelphia getting 6+ inches. That map only shows 1-3??? I would think that map will be updated accordingly later on if the rest of the 12z suite follows suit.
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Post by amugs on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:56 am

Our leader has spoken!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Take this map to the bank................
Thanks Frank and yes I believe the 6-10" is the ceiling of this storm since there is no well defined center and true Nor'easter element

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Post by billg315 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 9:57 am

Great write-up Scott. My sense is 6-12 is a little aggressive in the city only because I could see some sleet or rain mixing briefly even if it’s mainly snow. Such a close call though. I may try my hand at another map tonight. Very Happy
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Post by billg315 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:00 am

Great write-up as well Frank (posted while you were posting so missed it at first). Snow map looks good.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:02 am

Isn't the fact that there's 4 to 5 inches in the area going to help accumulate almost immediately?
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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:03 am

Thanks for the writeup frank. Will sign for 4 to 8 or 6 to10 def as you have me split literally lol. What do you guys think for schools Monday?


Last edited by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 02, 2019 10:05 am; edited 1 time in total
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