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Post by Grselig January 24th 2020, 5:32 pm

It is fun to look at! But I don't believe it unless it happens.

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Post by HectorO January 24th 2020, 7:31 pm

So much for that "long locked in" winter pattern we were talking about weeks ago.

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Post by heehaw453 January 25th 2020, 7:49 am

Not yet.  I'll give it just a bit more time.  Probably looking at February 14 or so...

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 23 Towel10

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Post by toople January 25th 2020, 8:07 am

amugs wrote:That snowmap is needed not 8 days out but 8 hours out like we had in 2013-14, 2014-15 with our storms.  Like this weekend, went for a SECS in the HV to a driving rainstorm.
Learning more and more the WPO & EPO is important for our winters to be winter.
This next storm has WNS maps showing a massive cutter to Buffalo, quite possible in this crap pattern to a great snowstorm to flip things around. Possible yes, but likely not placing any money on that bet until 12 hours out!! Sorry but the trends this winter have been bad overall as we get closer to game time.

Hi Amugs. I know the EPO is very important for our winter. I know we need negative EPO. I’m curious; does WPO effect our weather too? I couldn’t understand what WPO is for.

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Post by sroc4 January 25th 2020, 9:48 am

toople wrote:
amugs wrote:That snowmap is needed not 8 days out but 8 hours out like we had in 2013-14, 2014-15 with our storms.  Like this weekend, went for a SECS in the HV to a driving rainstorm.
Learning more and more the WPO & EPO is important for our winters to be winter.
This next storm has WNS maps showing a massive cutter to Buffalo, quite possible in this crap pattern to a great snowstorm to flip things around. Possible yes, but likely not placing any money on that bet until 12 hours out!! Sorry but the trends this winter have been bad overall as we get closer to game time.

Hi Amugs.  I know the EPO is very important for our winter.  I know we need negative EPO.  I’m curious; does WPO effect our weather too?  I couldn’t understand what WPO is for.

WPO affects the weather more indirectly I suppose you could say as what is happening in this region affects what happens down stream.  Below is a representation of the general regions we are talking about when we speak about the WPO, EPO, AO, NAO and the PNA.  We refer to these acronyms as the "teleconnections".  We often speak about them individually in either a positive or negative phase.  See map below for geographic location of the teleconnection.  When we refer to these in a +/- state what we really are describing is whether these geographic locations at the 500mb level(aka 18,000feet above sea level) have either a ridge or a trough centered there.  Using the EPO region in an example when this teleconnection is in a pos state there is a trough there.  When it is in the neg state there is a ridge there.  The stronger the +/- tells us the strength of the trough/ridge in the EPO region, or any of the regions for that matter.   For the most part the ridge and trough configuration at this level of the atmosphere(500mb) tells us how the various jet stream behaves(ie: arctic/polar/pacific/sub tropical jet).  The jet streams configuration dictates where the air masses are derived from for a give location.  

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 23 Teleco10



Here is the current state of the EPO region.  It is and has been positive.  Keep in mind this is only one of many teleconnection in an unfavorable state right now, but gives you an idea of why a NEG EPO is typically important to have sustained cold in the eastern half of the CONUS.  As you can see the trough in the EPO region(+EPO) promotes this sort of jet configuration.  This combined with a +AO, and +NAO locks up the artcic air masses in the arctic regions and floods the northern half of North America with Pacific air.  The result is the anomalously warm temperatures as seen by the third image covering pretty much the entire NA continent.  The exception is in the NE wherethere is only slight colder than normal due to a cold frontal passage following the system that is going to bring us the rain today.    

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 23 Ecmwf-40
Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 23 Ecmwf-41
Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 23 Ecmwf-42

HOWEVER, IF the EPO was negative and we had a ridge in this location the arctic jet typically looks like this, which you could eaily see the difference in hwre the air mass would be derived from in the east:

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 23 Ecmwf-43



So back to the WPO depending on how strong a ridge or trough may be in that region ultimately affects the weather down stream over North America, but remember its the sum of all the moving parts that gives us the final answer.  So in addition to the influence on the weather pattern and jet stream configuration these 5 teleconnections have, so does the El Nino La nina status, so does the MJO status, so does the QBO status, so does the AMO status the PDO status, so does the stratospheric vortex status, AND the solar/space weather status.  Every single one of these things are intimately intertwined in such a way that no one on this planet has figured out in its entirety.  Every time we think we have it nailed down we get humbled by the true complexity yet beauty of it.  But hey thats how you learn.  I hope I clarified at least a little for you but I'm sure i've sparked many more questions as well.  Cheers


Last edited by sroc4 on January 25th 2020, 5:59 pm; edited 2 times in total

_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by docstox12 January 25th 2020, 10:47 am

Doc, EXCELLENT lesson on how all these teleconnections interact with each other.
As you say, there are so many variables in play that with the current modeling technical skills, there will be problems.This is why I appreciate the major snowstorms I have witnessed the last 60 years.It takes so many things to come together just right.I'm sure as time goes on , they will be able to construct computer models with all the variables included to get even more accuracy.Quite frankly, I am amazed at the success they do have!
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Post by heehaw453 January 25th 2020, 11:50 am

Excellent write up sroc!  You should archive that in the weather education section of the board.  It'll come up many times in the future.

I would say this year is much more hostile to snow due to the +AO/-PNA (both rather anomalously bad). I don't feel MJO is as significant this year to our fortunes.  But the +AO/-PNA is the kiss of death combo for snow at this latitude.

Last year the PAC (-PNA) and MJO phase 4/5 did us in as we didn't have any thing to counter act that in the Atlantic (+NAO) and we had a strong WAR (Atlantic Ridge). That changed a bit in March, but nothing like 2018 -NAO we witnessed that gave us especially in the interior the prolific snows.

IMO we ought not to expect a sustained change to the AO flow this season.  The PAC may relax a bit and if we get some help in the Atlantic that will be our window.  Without the -AO or some -NAO help i feel the coast especially will continue to struggle mightily.  The interior may not fair much better.  

If the short windows are missed this will be anomalously low snow totals for us.  Especially for the coast.  

One of those short windows is next Saturday night/Sunday (+PNA/more neutral EPO and a better antecedent air mass).  It's not a good chance, but not 0 either.  There will most likely be a strong system to develop in the Atlantic.  With the right track and intensification it can deliver.  Not sold on anything with this yet expect I expect a strong system somewhere on east coast.

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Post by toople January 25th 2020, 12:49 pm

Thank you so much Sroc.  I never knew much about WPO.  Hopefully, winter will get better in February.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow January 25th 2020, 2:29 pm

sroc4 wrote:
toople wrote:
amugs wrote:That snowmap is needed not 8 days out but 8 hours out like we had in 2013-14, 2014-15 with our storms.  Like this weekend, went for a SECS in the HV to a driving rainstorm.
Learning more and more the WPO & EPO is important for our winters to be winter.
This next storm has WNS maps showing a massive cutter to Buffalo, quite possible in this crap pattern to a great snowstorm to flip things around. Possible yes, but likely not placing any money on that bet until 12 hours out!! Sorry but the trends this winter have been bad overall as we get closer to game time.

Hi Amugs.  I know the EPO is very important for our winter.  I know we need negative EPO.  I’m curious; does WPO effect our weather too?  I couldn’t understand what WPO is for.

WPO affects the weather more indirectly I suppose you could say as what is happening in this region affects what happens down stream.  Below is a representation of the general regions we are talking about when we speak about the WPO, EPO, AO, NAO and the PNA.  We refer to these acronyms as the "teleconnections".  We often speak about them individually in either a positive or negative phase.  See map below for geographic location of the teleconnection.  When we refer to these in a +/- state what we really are describing is whether these geographic locations at the 500mb level(aka 18,000feet above sea level) have either a ridge or a trough centered there.  Using the EPO region in an example when this teleconnection is in a pos state there is a trough there.  When it is in the neg state there is a ridge there.  The stronger the +/- tells us the strength of the trough/ridge in the EPO region, or any of the regions for that matter.   For the most part the ridge and trough configuration at this level of the atmosphere(500mb) tells us how the various jet stream behaves(ie: arctic/polar/pacific/sub tropical jet).  The jet streams configuration dictates where the air masses are derived from for a give location.  

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 23 Teleco10



Here is the current state of the EPO region.  It is and has been positive.  Keep in mind this is only one of many teleconnection in an unfavorable state right now, but gives you an idea of why a NEG EPO is typically important to have sustained cold in the eastern half of the CONUS.  As you can see the trough in the EPO region(+EPO) promotes this sort of jet configuration.  This combined with a +AO, and +NAO locks up the artcic air masses in the arctic regions and floods the northern half of North America with Pacific air.  The result is the anomalously warm temperatures as seen by the third image covering pretty much the entire NA continent.  The exception is in the NE wherethere is only slight colder than normal due to a cold frontal passage following the system that is going to bring us the rain today.    

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 23 Ecmwf-40
Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 23 Ecmwf-41
Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 23 Ecmwf-42

HOWEVER, IF the EPO was negative and we had a ridge in this location the arctic jet typically looks like this, which you could eaily see the difference in hwre the air mass would be derived from in the east:

Banter Thread 5.0 - Page 23 Ecmwf-43



So back to the WPO depending on how strong a ridge or trough may be in that region ultimately affects the weather down stream over North America, but remember its the sum of all the moving parts that gives us the final answer.  So in addition to the influence on the weather pattern and jet stream configuration these 5 teleconnections have, so does the El Nino La nina status, so does the MJO status, so does the QBO status, so does the AMO status the PDO status, so does the stratospheric vortex status, AND the solar/space weather status.  Every single one of these things are intimately intertwined in such a way that no one on this planet has figured out in its entirety.  Every time we think we have it nailed down we get humbled by the true complexity yet beauty of it.  But hey thats how you learn.  I hope I clarified at least a little for you but I'm sure i've sparked many more questions as well.  Cheers

Heehaw already beat me to it, but let me second the suggestion that when you can please copy this to the weather education thread. People like me may actually start to understand this stuff at some point with write-ups like this.
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Post by mikeypizano January 25th 2020, 3:59 pm

This winter is nothing but one disappointment after another... Can we just go into spring now?
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Post by sroc4 January 25th 2020, 6:08 pm

Thanks Its been officially archived here for reference:

https://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t1011-teleconnections-wpo-epo-ao-nao-pna

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by Grselig January 25th 2020, 6:10 pm

mikeypizano wrote:This winter is nothing but one disappointment after another... Can we just go into spring now?

Rot in you know where, son. Respect the winter. Good vibes. Good vibes. Were you can make a fortune clearing peoples driveways.
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Post by mikeypizano January 26th 2020, 8:01 am

Grselig wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:This winter is nothing but one disappointment after another... Can we just go into spring now?

Rot in you know where, son.  Respect the winter.  Good vibes.  Good vibes.  Were you can make a fortune clearing peoples driveways.

Rather do lawns...
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Post by Grselig January 26th 2020, 8:26 am

mikeypizano wrote:
Grselig wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:This winter is nothing but one disappointment after another... Can we just go into spring now?

Rot in you know where, son.  Respect the winter.  Good vibes.  Good vibes.  Were you can make a fortune clearing peoples driveways.

Rather do lawns...

Fair enough
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow January 26th 2020, 2:29 pm

Grselig wrote:
mikeypizano wrote:This winter is nothing but one disappointment after another... Can we just go into spring now?

Rot in you know where, son.  Respect the winter.  Good vibes.  Good vibes.  Were you can make a fortune clearing peoples driveways.

Yeah, what he said.
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Post by amugs January 26th 2020, 2:44 pm

Breaking News Kobe Bryant killed in a chopper crash. Sad

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Post by Irish January 26th 2020, 2:57 pm

So sad, i feel terrible for his kids!
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Post by Grselig January 26th 2020, 3:04 pm

amugs wrote:Breaking News Kobe Bryant killed in a chopper crash. Sad

Just saw. Tragic. Young daughter. Newborn. Very sad
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Post by heehaw453 January 26th 2020, 3:19 pm

amugs wrote:Breaking News Kobe Bryant killed in a chopper crash. Sad

State of disbelief.

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Post by weatherwatchermom January 26th 2020, 3:21 pm

amugs wrote:Breaking News Kobe Bryant killed in a chopper crash. Sad

SO SAD...his poor family... Sad Sad Sad
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Post by sroc4 January 26th 2020, 3:26 pm

Terrible!

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by amugs January 26th 2020, 3:34 pm

Conflicting reports saying his family was on board. Jesus H I pray they weren't.

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Post by jimv45 January 26th 2020, 3:35 pm

Just unbelievable big fan of him and the Lakers, god bless his family.

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Post by jimv45 January 26th 2020, 3:36 pm

Oh mugs sure hope not!!!

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Post by Irish January 26th 2020, 3:42 pm

Yup, read that at least some if not all if his daughter's were on the chopper.
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Post by Irish January 26th 2020, 3:43 pm

ESPN now saying wife and kids were not onboard.
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Post by jimv45 January 26th 2020, 3:43 pm

Just get worse TMZ is reporting his 13 year old daughter was on board, boy I hope that is wrong

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