2019 TROPICAL SEASON

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:17 pm

Radz wrote:recon 973??
wow that's a big drop over 10mb I believe since 5pm update.
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 9:22 pm

By Tommorow morning 5 am update it will be 100mph
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:20 pm

Dorian beat ya 11pm 105mph. Might be close to cat 3 by morning hh finding rapid intensification. Is he going for cat 5 eventually...lets hope not.
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Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:39 am

No. Evil or Very Mad (TCLPurple slurple)

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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:37 am

Over the last few years I’ve noticed the models grossly under call a hurricanes intensity in the long range. They give off the impression a tropical depression or storm will be the biggest threat. As we get closer, and the storm undergoes rapid intensification, they catch on that we’re dealing with a major hurricane.

Pretty unbelievable what a low shear / warm water environment can do for a tropical system. Dorian has a chance to reach Cat 5 at this point. People in Florida need to pay attention. Possibly evacuate if they’re along the east coast!

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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:43 am

UKIE track looks like the GFS/EURO. Amazing consensus.

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 5 76EC247C-3D1B-4BCD-BA27-AA609E855BC9.png.978cd4d7b2fe91af1dc8eab06b7db4db

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Post by billg315 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:43 am

Frank I was just thinking the same thing. The models don’t seem to pick up well in that rapid intensification. But you can almost bet (minus shear) it will occur once these storms get to that Gulf Stream region. A couple days ago this was progged as a Cat 1 at landfall - now we’re talking 4 or 5. Wow.
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:14 am

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:47 am

Frank you are totally right like Michael and Matthew and Irma. Just crazy how bad the models are on picking this up. They are all initializing far higher pressures than Dorian truly is right now which could in fact cause a change in track.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:49 am

SoulSingMG wrote:No.  Evil or Very Mad (TCLPurple slurple)

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 5 Fd2fd810
what's with that one odd track. Weird obviously not go happen.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:51 am

110mph now.
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Post by amugs on Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:31 am

Folks,

Went through pages of wx information from many pros and amatys.
The OHC - ocean heat content is very high for where she will gain her strength from and it has solid depth of her projected track. The upper level and mid level wind fields and shear are attractive to this and will steer her like Sandy a sharpish left turn to an almost perpendicular direction to the coast thus enhancing the tidal surge.
The track from the maps looks to keep her just east of I 75 in Fla and then up through Ga flat water region as a Cat 1. The upper level pattern does imply this and good thing is if the models are correct she will not reemerge in the Gulf and then re-intensify and make a second strong CAT 2 or even 3 strength landfall. Time will tell but the information is serious in nature adn IF you anyone from West Palm beach region up through Melbourne - start the preps, plan and think evac - the infrastructure will be impeded to a major degree - this is what I am trying to tell my wife's aunt on the west coast directly across from WPB - yuo dont need to be in the bulls eye to feel great affects.

Oh and there are two more waves we'll need to watch in the coming weeks as the pattern looks to be conducive for development.

FROM BAM - look at this track - ala Floydish and Irene
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 5 EDOBnYKW4AAbC-2?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by aiannone on Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:39 am

amugs wrote:Folks,

Went through pages of wx information from many pros and amatys.
The OHC - ocean heat content is very high for where she will gain her strength from and it has solid depth of her projected track. The upper level and mid level wind fields and shear are attractive to this and will steer her like Sandy a sharpish left turn to an almost perpendicular direction to the coast thus enhancing the tidal surge.
The track from the maps looks to keep her just east of I 75 in Fla and then up through Ga flat water region as a Cat 1. The upper level pattern does imply this and good thing is if the models are correct she will not reemerge in the Gulf and then re-intensify and make a second strong CAT 2 or even 3 strength landfall. Time will tell but the information is serious in nature adn IF you anyone from West Palm beach region up through Melbourne - start the preps, plan and think evac - the infrastructure will be impeded to a major degree - this is what I am trying to tell my wife's aunt on the west coast directly across from WPB - yuo dont need to be in the bulls eye to feel great affects.

Oh and there are two more waves we'll need to watch in the coming weeks as the pattern looks to be conducive for development.

FROM BAM - look at this track - ala Floydish and Irene
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 5 EDOBnYKW4AAbC-2?format=jpg&name=medium

Great read. I have family in West Palm that seem to think it will turn out like Matthew. Forecast is a direct hit and then ends up not making landfall and staying just off the coast with minimal impact
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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:14 am

aiannone wrote:
amugs wrote:Folks,

Went through pages of wx information from many pros and amatys.
The OHC - ocean heat content is very high for where she will gain her strength from and it has solid depth of her projected track. The upper level and mid level wind fields and shear are attractive to this and will steer her like Sandy a sharpish left turn to an almost perpendicular direction to the coast thus enhancing the tidal surge.
The track from the maps looks to keep her just east of I 75 in Fla and then up through Ga flat water region as a Cat 1. The upper level pattern does imply this and good thing is if the models are correct she will not reemerge in the Gulf and then re-intensify and make a second strong CAT 2 or even 3 strength landfall. Time will tell but the information is serious in nature adn IF you anyone from West Palm beach region up through Melbourne - start the preps, plan and think evac - the infrastructure will be impeded to a major degree - this is what I am trying to tell my wife's aunt on the west coast directly across from WPB - yuo dont need to be in the bulls eye to feel great affects.

Oh and there are two more waves we'll need to watch in the coming weeks as the pattern looks to be conducive for development.

FROM BAM - look at this track - ala Floydish and Irene
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 5 EDOBnYKW4AAbC-2?format=jpg&name=medium

Great read. I have family in West Palm that seem to think it will turn out like Matthew. Forecast is a direct hit and then ends up not making landfall and staying just off the coast with minimal impact

Looking over some guidance I have a feeling this will not be the case. Seems to me Dorian misses the weakness in the ridge. Al is right - this storm has potential to have a Sandy like left turn that literally forces water onto land. Maybe models in the next day or 2 back off this idea and spare Florida the worst !!

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:43 am

Does anyone have any insight into the possibility of impacts up this way late next week? It does kinda look like irenes track. And why do people keep saying her? Dorian is a guys name no?
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 10:44 am

Well from that map above we are in the cone but who's cone is that? Not the nhc.
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Post by sroc4 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:26 am

Keep in mind the steering currents  that influence a weaker storm vs a stronger storm are different.   With Dorian being as strong as it is progged to be you have to look at the upperlevels as well as 500mb too.  Sum pof all vectors.  200-250mb level has an HP that wants to steer it WSW.  The winds around the edge of the retreating 500mb Burmuda HP are weaking on approach.  There are still many factors to consider here so exact track is still uncertain.

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Post by sroc4 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:21 pm

At 500mb the ULL to its SW is also tugging in it all the while

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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 1:33 pm

sroc4 wrote:At 500mb the ULL to its SW is also tugging in it all the while
Aned this means? Its going to go south of florida?
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:13 pm

2pm intermediate update Dorian is a major hurricane 115mph.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:19 pm

wow 12z euro is bad 48 hrs he takes to go a few hundred miles and hrs 72 to 96 barely moves at all over bahamas totally wreaking havoc and flirting florida, really bad news if true.

Edit OMG he pulls a matthew!! and misses FL. Makes it to NC not having made landfall anywhere, this would be the best case senario with some impacts, can we really get a run like this for real? And looks headed OTS after that. I know its one run but thats a big change and would really change the concern level.
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 2:47 pm

Wow, he gets his strongest pressure wise as he passes us and gets dangerously close to cape cod, 946mb! Look at that wind swath! Would wreak havock on the beaches up and down the EC for certain.

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Post by hyde345 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:20 pm

Latest Euro just goes to show how much uncertainty there is beyond Bahamas. Even if Euro verified it would still result in some major issues for southeastern coast because its a large intense storm that isn't moving very quickly. Still too early to say if it makes landfall or not but I think westward track into gulf is a very low probability now.


Last edited by hyde345 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 4:09 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by rb924119 on Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:20 pm

jmanley32 wrote:wow 12z euro is bad 48 hrs he takes to go a few hundred miles and hrs 72 to 96 barely moves at all over bahamas totally wreaking havoc and flirting florida, really bad news if true.

Edit OMG he pulls a matthew!! and misses FL. Makes it to NC not having made landfall anywhere, this would be the best case senario with some impacts, can we really get a run like this for real? And looks headed OTS after that. I know its one run but thats a big change and would really change the concern level.

Smile Wink

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Post by Grselig on Fri Aug 30, 2019 3:32 pm

rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:wow 12z euro is bad 48 hrs he takes to go a few hundred miles and hrs 72 to 96 barely moves at all over bahamas totally wreaking havoc and flirting florida, really bad news if true.

Edit OMG he pulls a matthew!! and misses FL. Makes it to NC not having made landfall anywhere, this would be the best case senario with some impacts, can we really get a run like this for real? And looks headed OTS after that. I know its one run but thats a big change and would really change the concern level.

Smile Wink


Nearly every year we experience this back and forth.  Hopefully the slowing down and some changes in the trough north allow it to go out to sea.  As much as I love the drama and excitement of weather, unlike snow,  there is no way I want it to hit land.  Keeping fingers crossed that FL is spared. All I want is for us to get some good rain. But one good model does not put us out of danger.
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