2019 TROPICAL SEASON

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Post by amugs on Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:13 pm

Dorian has CAT 5 winds and pressures
Another SFMR report of 148 knots (~170 mph) from recon

020700 2619N 07507W 7543 02004 9483 +173 +172 042083 100 **148** 012 00

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Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Aug 31, 2019 11:45 pm

FWIW...

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 8 Cc063010
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:14 am

SoulSingMG wrote:FWIW...

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 8 Cc063010
isn't that the source a lot of people in here find phony or am I think of st else. Tropical storm watch for south Florida. It's over people are go drop their guard completely now so either he does miss or he hits and it's mass chaos.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:27 am

amugs wrote:Dorian has CAT 5 winds and pressures
Another SFMR report of 148 knots (~170 mph) from recon

020700 2619N 07507W 7543 02004 9483 +173 +172 042083 100 **148** 012 00
pressure dropped to 934 but no wind increase interesting. Can't be surface winds of 170 very often cuz it's still at 150.
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Post by sroc4 on Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:13 am

If the folks along Fla think its over think again.  According to Levi Cowan a recon mission to the North of the system showed the Ridge a tad stronger than was prev being modeled.  The result are solns that have adjused a tad back to the west.  As a result you can see the latest NHC track has done so as well.  

Folks just a few MPH off, and a few hrs off before the turn can have big implications. Another 25-35 mile shift west from here is a big diff for those on the coast. For both wind and surge concerns.

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 8 Recon_NOAA9-2705A-DORIAN_dropsondes

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 8 Prev10
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 8 Curren10

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:01 am

Urgent nhc update Dorian is a cat 5 winds 160mph and strengthening. Yikes...

06z hrs has him much closer to coast and closer in to the coast too as he goes up Carolinas and now brings heavy rains to southern Jersey and impacts to Cape Cod. I dunno thinking this isn't going ots just a thought.
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Post by Joe Snow on Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:18 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...EYEWALL OF NOW CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE DORIAN ABOUT TO
HIT THE ABACO ISLANDS WITH DEVASTATING WINDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO
EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.5W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES
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Post by Joe Snow on Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:19 am

jmanley32 wrote:Urgent nhc update Dorian is a cat 5 winds 160mph and strengthening. Yikes...

06z hrs has him much closer to coast and closer in to the coast too as he goes up Carolinas and now brings heavy rains to southern Jersey and impacts to Cape Cod. I dunno thinking this isn't going ots just a thought.

JMan - Have to watch this bad boy closely..........
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Post by sroc4 on Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:26 am

Down to 928mb!! Yikes!! shocked
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 8 Recon_AF302-2805A-DORIAN

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Post by Grselig on Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:33 am

As per Levi Cowan seconds ago. “The recon plane will soon fly down into the northern or northwestern eyewall, which is likely to have even stronger winds than measured in the northeastern eyeball”

Scary


Last edited by Grselig on Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:00 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sroc4 on Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:34 am

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 8 Ccee4d10

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Post by amugs on Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:17 am

Jesus H the Grand Bahamas and city of Freeport are going to be DEVASTATED, FLATTENED!! 27k inhabitants are gonna feel his wrath for 24 plus hour not 2-4 due to the stall.
This is just unbelievable.
The WAR as I said before is always undermodelled for its strength for some reason and Scott this is going to get precariously closer to causing moderate damage to and down the fla and the SE coast. A 15-25 mile.wobble can be big here. Have to see what the data says.

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Post by amugs on Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:27 am

The winds may actually be stronger than the 160 mph sustained ( remember sustained winds re 1 minute in duration) due to the blending of the data at the flight level and the drops. Some conflicting data from what I am reading out of these missions. Hope theynaint playing politics with this.
Anyway if you think a graze means nothing here your mistaken. The eye is about 40 miles in Dia so of he is 50 miles offshore goes what you are on the edge of this. Tidal.surge flooding, rains, winds and the like will.all take place.
6Z EPs I am reading is even closer to the Fla coast, the eye is about a few miles off from making landfall. Better hope this trend stops or their is gonna be a flurry of last second prep and crying by millions of peeps about the wx forecasts to a degree.

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Post by sroc4 on Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:32 am

Down to 921

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 8 B8759e10

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Post by amugs on Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:35 am

Mother of Mercy

9:30 AM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.5°N 76.6°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 922 mb
Max sustained: 175 mph

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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:36 am

NHC 9:30 update: Down to 922 mbs / 175 mph.
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Post by amugs on Sun Sep 01, 2019 9:46 am

Maue said he expects hcane winds to increase to 185mph by later tonight OMG x 1000000000!!!

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:04 am

This is nuts!!! What is our strongest can on record? Whoes to say he won't go over 200mph at this point he could turn into a freaking evil unicorn I wouldn't be surprised Jesus. I hope everyone left the Bahamas.
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Post by amugs on Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:23 am

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 8 Goes16_ir_05L_201909011412

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:23 am

People really are saying all clear in Florida my family who was staying with their daughter in the hospital may go home cuz they are considering releasing all nurses on deck. This in Vero Beach. Also heard some are unboarding their houses.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:27 am

amugs wrote:2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 8 Goes16_ir_05L_201909011412
wow just wow
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Post by rb924119 on Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:29 am

jmanley32 wrote:This is nuts!!! What is our strongest can on record? Whoes to say he won't go over 200mph at this point he could turn into a freaking evil unicorn I wouldn't be surprised Jesus. I hope everyone left the Bahamas.

Super-typhoon Tip. I believe it got down to 878 hPa or 876 hPa with estimated sustained winds in excess of 230 mph. This isn’t even close. There was one a few years back, Haiyan, also in the western Pacific that came close but didn’t get there. I think it got down to 886 hPa and sustained winds of 225 mph.

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Post by Grselig on Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:32 am

jmanley32 wrote:People really are saying all clear in Florida my family who was staying with their daughter in the hospital may go home cuz they are considering releasing all nurses on deck. This in Vero Beach. Also heard some are unboarding their houses.

WOW. This is not a done deal. Even if it skirts the coast there could be damage. The Beast is getting stronger. Why take action to increase the likelihood of damage if it does not got north as expected. They are under a tropical storm warning! there is "an explosion of lightning" in the eyeball...likely a reflection of the profound strength of the eyeball updrafts as the storm rapidly intensifies." (Levi Cowan)
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Post by amugs on Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:41 am

Overnthe next 12 hours is strengthening as lightening is growing in abundance in the ey showing it is and will strengthen.
200 mph winds were taken just need verification

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Post by mwilli on Sun Sep 01, 2019 10:47 am

im looking at the satalitte/infred/ the eye/175 mph if dorian does not make this turn to the north...god help those people in fla

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