2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Page 10 of 17 • Share
Page 10 of 17 • 1 ... 6 ... 9, 10, 11 ... 13 ... 17
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Found a live stream from Marsh Harbour,currently experiencing winds of 168 mph.Small building hanging tough.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=6RuhYgn41ms
Edit- I'm starting to doubt that this is a live feed, even though they show the current time, if you watch it long enough, you will see the same debris come and go in the center of the screen.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=6RuhYgn41ms
Edit- I'm starting to doubt that this is a live feed, even though they show the current time, if you watch it long enough, you will see the same debris come and go in the center of the screen.
Last edited by GreyBeard on Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:41 pm; edited 1 time in total
GreyBeard- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 437
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2014-02-12
Location : Eastern Nassau County
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
WowGreyBeard wrote:Found a live stream from Marsh Harbour,currently experiencing winds of 168 mph.Small building hanging tough.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=6RuhYgn41ms
weatherwatchermom- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 2514
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 55
Location : Hazlet Township
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
This afternoon's 12z EPS thru ~60 hrs is slightly west of this morning's 0z suite as #Dorian approaches SE Florida on Labor Day. While these alterations may seem pretty trivial, the direct impacts to Florida's east coast will change dramatically w/ any modest shift in track.

_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 10468
Reputation : 175
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Hwrf is quite disconcerting makes landfall around Brevard or Daytona area too and goes well inland. Any possibility of this? What causes the sudden push back west on hwrf?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 16180
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 10468
Reputation : 175
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Warnings hoisted by NHC, going with a westward jog.
Jesus this is so close.
Cone into SNJ now
Jesus this is so close.
Cone into SNJ now
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 10468
Reputation : 175
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
18z Gfs a little closer to the coast so far by Florida. Stronger ridge in the Atlantic as well. Could be an even closer run to the coast
Sanchize06- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 937
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Undermodelled WAR jman that is the culprit. We see this all the time with the WAR , Western Atlantic Ridge.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 10468
Reputation : 175
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Joe Snow- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 786
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 57
Location : Kings Park, NY
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
yes mugscome on I at least know what war stands for lol. I've learned a few things. So it's possible then the hwrf is right even though it's alone?amugs wrote:Undermodelled WAR jman that is the culprit. We see this all the time with the WAR , Western Atlantic Ridge.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 16180
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Oh no gfs is following hwrf more right on coast oy. Significant shift west as headed up top half of Florida. Ya mugs ts winds into nj and NYC long Island range 5 to 20% this far out that's not good.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 16180
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
More interaction that run on the GFS, looks like tropical storm conditions up to about Atlantic city or so. Everyone on the east coast should still be keeping a close eye
Sanchize06- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 937
Reputation : 20
Join date : 2013-02-05
Location : Union Beach, NJ
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
To me watching my radar feed it seems Dorian has a west south west movement, that is going to change a lot of things, could it go around the Grand Bahamas?
Joe Snow- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 786
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 57
Location : Kings Park, NY
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
GFS came very close to a phase. If that northern trough was a bit faster this run it would have brought Dorian further up the coastline. Taken verbatim we still get some rain. My trip to Wildwood this week is concerning as Thursday/Friday looks like a washout down there.
nutleyblizzard- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 1603
Reputation : 37
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 53
Location : Nutley, new jersey
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Missed a few Turning Points already, seems to be drifting West - South West
Joe Snow- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 786
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 57
Location : Kings Park, NY
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
probably a wobble but the fact there's no sign of a turn yet isn't good.Joe Snow wrote:Missed a few Turning Points already, seems to be drifting West - South West
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
- Posts : 16180
Reputation : 86
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Oh no I hope not...nutleyblizzard wrote:GFS came very close to a phase. If that northern trough was a bit faster this run it would have brought Dorian further up the coastline. Taken verbatim we still get some rain. My trip to Wildwood this week is concerning as Thursday/Friday looks like a washout down there.
weatherwatchermom- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 2514
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 55
Location : Hazlet Township
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
jmanley32 wrote:probably a wobble but the fact there's no sign of a turn yet isn't good.Joe Snow wrote:Missed a few Turning Points already, seems to be drifting West - South West
JMan It's not turning (as of yet) and still seems to be slowly drifting S-SW.
Joe Snow- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 786
Reputation : 7
Join date : 2014-02-12
Age : 57
Location : Kings Park, NY
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
South and west yet again.
This modelnhas nailed the intensity and placement so far of this beast.

This modelnhas nailed the intensity and placement so far of this beast.

_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 10468
Reputation : 175
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
when it goes past freeport overnight and still holds at a cat 5 heading due south/west?i don't wanna throw the winter slogan"madonne"here,that's disrespect but now i would be very concerned for florida
mwilli- Posts : 40
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2019-02-11
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
A lot of the shifts in the immediate track on these models are model noise at this point, alternating between upper-air runs and non upper-air runs. The HWRF, however, is based on the GFS core, so it will likely follow whatever “shift” is seen in the regular operational run. Something to also note is that the HWRF has consistently been a southwestern outlier compared to the rest of the ensemble suites. We are essentially in a state of wait and see now, unfortunately, at least in my opinion.
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 4947
Reputation : 183
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Remember the GEFs are run on the old GFS platform as well.
Rayno says dont use ENS for hcane forecasts.
Rayno says dont use ENS for hcane forecasts.
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 10468
Reputation : 175
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
amugs wrote:Remember the GEFs are run on the old GFS platform as well.
Rayno says dont use ENS for hcane forecasts.
I know. But it’s still a tool. And I respectfully disagree for several reasons, but he is entitled to his opinions also haha
rb924119- Meteorologist
- Posts : 4947
Reputation : 183
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 27
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Rb what is your thinking of where this is going?rb924119 wrote:amugs wrote:Remember the GEFs are run on the old GFS platform as well.
Rayno says dont use ENS for hcane forecasts.
I know. But it’s still a tool. And I respectfully disagree for several reasons, but he is entitled to his opinions also haha
weatherwatchermom- Pro Enthusiast
- Posts : 2514
Reputation : 61
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 55
Location : Hazlet Township
Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON
Forget the models he is such a beast they can't handle this sucker.
Spaghetti maps.of.hcane models are all.over the place.
If I ma from WPB to OBX I hunker down. Tjis thing is creating it's own environment. Very rare aitch here. Not waking at all.
914 my pressure still
Winds- devastation
Spaghetti maps.of.hcane models are all.over the place.
If I ma from WPB to OBX I hunker down. Tjis thing is creating it's own environment. Very rare aitch here. Not waking at all.
914 my pressure still
Winds- devastation
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
- Posts : 10468
Reputation : 175
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ
Page 10 of 17 • 1 ... 6 ... 9, 10, 11 ... 13 ... 17
Page 10 of 17
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum