2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Found a live stream from Marsh Harbour,currently experiencing winds of 168 mph.Small building hanging tough.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=6RuhYgn41ms


Edit- I'm starting to doubt that this is a live feed, even though they show the current time, if you watch it long enough, you will see the same debris come and go in the center of the screen.

GreyBeard wrote:Found a live stream from Marsh Harbour,currently experiencing winds of 168 mph.Small building hanging tough.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=6RuhYgn41ms

Wow

This afternoon's 12z EPS thru ~60 hrs is slightly west of this morning's 0z suite as #Dorian approaches SE Florida on Labor Day. While these alterations may seem pretty trivial, the direct impacts to Florida's east coast will change dramatically w/ any modest shift in track.

Hwrf is quite disconcerting makes landfall around Brevard or Daytona area too and goes well inland. Any possibility of this? What causes the sudden push back west on hwrf?

Warnings hoisted by NHC, going with a westward jog.
Jesus this is so close.
Cone into SNJ now

18z Gfs a little closer to the coast so far by Florida. Stronger ridge in the Atlantic as well. Could be an even closer run to the coast

Undermodelled WAR jman that is the culprit. We see this all the time with the WAR , Western Atlantic Ridge.

Current radar Shot............



Think Florida is going to be lucky?

amugs wrote:Undermodelled WAR jman that is the culprit. We see this all the time with the WAR , Western Atlantic Ridge.

yes mugscome on I at least know what war stands for lol. I've learned a few things. So it's possible then the hwrf is right even though it's alone?

Oh no gfs is following hwrf more right on coast oy. Significant shift west as headed up top half of Florida. Ya mugs ts winds into nj and NYC long Island range 5 to 20% this far out that's not good.

More interaction that run on the GFS, looks like tropical storm conditions up to about Atlantic city or so. Everyone on the east coast should still be keeping a close eye

To me watching my radar feed it seems Dorian has a west south west movement, that is going to change a lot of things, could it go around the Grand Bahamas?

GFS came very close to a phase. If that northern trough was a bit faster this run it would have brought Dorian further up the coastline. Taken verbatim we still get some rain. My trip to Wildwood this week is concerning as Thursday/Friday looks like a washout down there.

Missed a few Turning Points already, seems to be drifting West - South West

Joe Snow wrote:Missed a few Turning Points already, seems to be drifting West - South West

probably a wobble but the fact there's no sign of a turn yet isn't good.

nutleyblizzard wrote:GFS came very close to a phase. If that northern trough was a bit faster this run it would have brought  Dorian further up the coastline. Taken verbatim we still get some rain. My trip to Wildwood this week is concerning as  Thursday/Friday looks like a washout down there.

Oh no I hope not...

jmanley32 wrote:

Joe Snow wrote:Missed a few Turning Points already, seems to be drifting West - South West

probably a wobble but the fact there's no sign of a turn yet isn't good.

JMan It's not turning (as of yet) and still seems to be slowly drifting S-SW.

South and west yet again.
This modelnhas nailed the intensity and placement so far of this beast.

when it goes past freeport overnight and still holds at a cat 5 heading due south/west?i don't wanna throw the winter slogan"madonne"here,that's disrespect but now i would be very concerned for florida

A lot of the shifts in the immediate track on these models are model noise at this point, alternating between upper-air runs and non upper-air runs. The HWRF, however, is based on the GFS core, so it will likely follow whatever “shift” is seen in the regular operational run. Something to also note is that the HWRF has consistently been a southwestern outlier compared to the rest of the ensemble suites. We are essentially in a state of wait and see now, unfortunately, at least in my opinion.

Remember the GEFs are run on the old GFS platform as well.
Rayno says dont use ENS for hcane forecasts.

amugs wrote:Remember the GEFs are run on the old GFS platform as well.
Rayno says dont use ENS for hcane forecasts.

I know. But it’s still a tool. And I respectfully disagree for several reasons, but he is entitled to his opinions also haha

rb924119 wrote:

amugs wrote:Remember the GEFs are run on the old GFS platform as well.
Rayno says dont use ENS for hcane forecasts.

I know. But it’s still a tool. And I respectfully disagree for several reasons, but he is entitled to his opinions also haha

Rb what is your thinking of where this is going?

Forget the models he is such a beast they can't handle this sucker.
Spaghetti maps.of.hcane models are all.over the place.
If I ma from WPB to OBX I hunker down. Tjis thing is creating it's own environment. Very rare aitch here. Not waking at all.
914 my pressure still
Winds- devastation