2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Page 2 of 17 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 9 ... 17  Next

Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:20 pm

rb924119 wrote:No, Jman haha but I know of whom you speak; I’ve seen some of his stuff floating around social media. That’s pretty cool that you went to school together!
Oh the ryan and CT i figured connecticut. I was almost sure it was him. Anyways things as i pointed out will likely be heating up over the next month and into the fall.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jul 21, 2019 9:34 am

Our first east coast threat, no models develop it and even if it did it would likely get kicked out by a front, unless the war is really strong and far north.  Sometimes models do not catch on until later on we will see.

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Nhc10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by Spacemanspiff99 on Sat Jul 27, 2019 2:55 pm

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Screen10

I just saw this scrolling through Facebook. While I'm not a met or anything I love this forum and have for years (I post on occasion haha). But I always keep an eye out for hurricanes as we live on the bay. Maybe you guys know more about it?

Cheers!

Spacemanspiff99

Posts : 4
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2016-01-10
Location : Toms River, New Jersey

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by billg315 on Tue Jul 30, 2019 1:53 pm

Nothing urgent brewing in the Atlantic right now. There is a wave in the far eastern Atlantic that could bear watching in a few days as it gets closer to the western Atlantic, but its a long way off for now.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2854
Reputation : 147
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 45
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by Snow88 on Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:45 pm

Nothing is going to affect the US in the foreseeable future with the troughs coming down on the models
Snow88
Snow88
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 2088
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2013-01-09
Age : 31
Location : Brooklyn, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:48 pm

Hold onto your hats the next 3 months are gonna be crazy, they just upped to a overactive season with 10-17 named storms 3-7 huricanes and 3-4 cat 3 or higher, being there has not been but what one? named storm that is a average of one to two every week!!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by dkodgis on Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:57 pm

Lee Goldberg said it would havevto get busy fast. He said this tonight. I guess it is getting busy fast
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 995
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by billg315 on Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:43 pm

That is rather incredible. There is nothing forecast to develop in the Atlantic for the next week, at least. That means any activity wouldn’t fire up until the last two weeks of August at the earliest. Given the Atlantic’s peak season is from the end of July to the end of September almost all of that activity would have to happen in a little over a month. Either they’re off the mark or September is going to be crazy in the Atlantic.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2854
Reputation : 147
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 45
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by billg315 on Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:37 am

Nothing brewing in the Atlantic at all. NHC says no development expected for at least the next five days. That pushes us almost to the end of August before we'd likely see any impacts from any tropical systems on the U.S. (barring a quick flare-up in the Gulf of Mexico next week).
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2854
Reputation : 147
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 45
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by sroc4 on Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:21 pm

billg315 wrote:Nothing brewing in the Atlantic at all. NHC says no development expected for at least the next five days. That pushes us almost to the end of August before we'd likely see any impacts from any tropical systems on the U.S. (barring a quick flare-up in the Gulf of Mexico next week).

200MB vertical velocity forecast for week 2 starting to look interesting for the Atlantic basin.  Should that forecast come to fruition things will likely come to life.  That said there are also somewhat favorable conditions in the eastern Pac off the central american coast as well.  If trop development in this location it often steals the upward motion thunder from the Atlantic basin

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Twc_globe_mjo_vp200

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 1.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6329
Reputation : 256
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by amugs on Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:49 pm

Later August through mid Spetemwbr is prime season and it will be again as conditions look to be forecasted as SROC pointed more favorable for tropical development.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10422
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by dkodgis on Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:20 pm

I know it all can change in a few days as thing pop but that is what I notice. Some see it Jiffy-popping as in ready to pop an others say quiet but soon. I am curious if hellzapoppin’ soon
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 995
Reputation : 72
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by sroc4 on Mon Aug 19, 2019 5:12 pm

sroc4 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Nothing brewing in the Atlantic at all. NHC says no development expected for at least the next five days. That pushes us almost to the end of August before we'd likely see any impacts from any tropical systems on the U.S. (barring a quick flare-up in the Gulf of Mexico next week).

200MB vertical velocity forecast for week 2 starting to look interesting for the Atlantic basin.  Should that forecast come to fruition things will likely come to life.  That said there are also somewhat favorable conditions in the eastern Pac off the central american coast as well.  If trop development in this location it often steals the upward motion thunder from the Atlantic basin

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Twc_globe_mjo_vp200

Recall what I posted above last Monday.  Here is the updated forecast.  I wish I took a snap shot and saved last weeks forecast to compare last weeks week 2 forecast to this weeks week 1 forecast.  The image above in the quote is updated with the current forecast because I copy and pasted the URL instead of saving and inserting the image i guess.  Anyway, The second image, which is now the week one 200mb velocity potential, still on course for trop activity to amp up.  Notice however there are the blue colors(represents favored upward motion) located in the Eastern Pac as well as the Western Atl/GOM/Caribbean.  I still think we see a trop system or two develop in the eastern Pac first which likely prevents upward motion on the Atlantic side.  However as the 200mb VP conts to shift notice the entire Pac is under the influence of the warm colors(favored sinking air) in the week two forecast.  IF this cont to evolve as is being forecasted things will become active fo show.

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Vp200m10

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 1.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6329
Reputation : 256
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by algae888 on Thu Aug 22, 2019 3:43 pm

todays 12z euro has a tropical system off the nc coast next tuesday. with the 500mb setup could possibly affect us.
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4998
Reputation : 38
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 57
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by sroc4 on Thu Aug 22, 2019 8:58 pm

algae888 wrote:todays 12z euro has a tropical system off the nc coast next tuesday. with the 500mb setup could possibly affect us.

Ridge over troubled waters. “JB”. I def think it needs to be watched. Both GFs and Euro have the ridge. Look underneath for the mischief. Hope your having a good summer Al.

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Cdab8910
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 19e60410

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 1.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6329
Reputation : 256
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:35 pm

sroc4 wrote:
algae888 wrote:todays 12z euro has a tropical system off the nc coast next tuesday. with the 500mb setup could possibly affect us.

Ridge over troubled waters. “JB”.  I def think it needs to be watched. Both GFs and Euro have the ridge. Look underneath for the mischief. Hope your having a good summer Al.

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Cdab8910
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 19e60410

Hey all, we havent had much to talk about this summer, maybe this will be our first summer tracking. Hey Al, of all people did not expect you to chime in on this, i know how much you Love tropical threats especially if theres some sort of threat big or small. Anyways we have had some decent storms here so far this summer but mainly for the lightning. I recorded the other day what I am pretty sure was a rotating storm, it def had a low cloud with a rotation in it and little spin offs of darker cloud wisps was cool to look at even if it wasn't. Scott, you guys have been getting rocked in LI with severe weather ive seen. We track!
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 22, 2019 9:45 pm

Is this our potential system to watch? Has a 50% chance, yesterday was only 20 and it wasn't looking good, its always these sneaky ones.

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Two_at12
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:00 am

Up to red 70% but all models take it ots is there something I am missing? Do they not realize the ridge yet? Also it's interesting euro only one to intensify it into a ts.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by sroc4 on Fri Aug 23, 2019 8:28 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Up to red 70% but all models take it ots is there something I am missing? Do they not realize the ridge yet? Also it's interesting euro only one to intensify it into a ts.

Forget models on intensity beyond 24 hrs when there isn’t even a defined low level center. The ridge is there but there is a weakness to the east.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 1.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6329
Reputation : 256
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:07 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Up to red 70% but all models take it ots is there something I am missing? Do they not realize the ridge yet? Also it's interesting euro only one to intensify it into a ts.

Forget models on intensity beyond 24 hrs when there isn’t even a defined low level center.  The ridge is there but there is a weakness to the east.
right. Well the Atlantic on queue is lighting up. Another high chance system east of the onwards now.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Aug 24, 2019 12:53 pm

hey guys will any of this you think effect next weekend? we plan on taking the boat down to seaside for the long weekend? TIA...hope everyone is enjoying this beautiful day...
weatherwatchermom
weatherwatchermom
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2489
Reputation : 60
Join date : 2014-11-25
Age : 55
Location : Hazlet Township

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Aug 24, 2019 7:58 pm

Doesn't look like nhc is having the unnamed systemof f the ec do anything but go ots but I guess it's not over till it is. We have Dorian east of the winwards 5 day takes it to around hispanola and who knows after that could tear him although is proged to become a hurricane.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by billg315 on Sun Aug 25, 2019 12:43 pm

I would agree the disturbance off Florida probably limps OTS even if it does intensify. Dorian is wide open to possibilities now since it’s so far out. Does look to become a hurricane. IF it were to impact the Gulf or East Coast the most likely time-frame would be Saturday to Monday, so it bears watching. Too earlier to know anything for sure though.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2854
Reputation : 147
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 45
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Aug 25, 2019 2:22 pm

billg315 wrote:I would agree the disturbance off Florida probably limps OTS even if it does intensify. Dorian is wide open to possibilities now since it’s so far out. Does look to become a hurricane. IF it were to impact the Gulf or East Coast the most likely time-frame would be Saturday to Monday, so it bears watching. Too earlier to know anything for sure though.
as progged it's supposed to go over Hispaniola as a ts and come 9ff as a depression. That Island is death for hurricanes but once it moves into Bahamas could regenerate quickly. Any movement to the south or north thpugh and a miss to That Island could mean a much stronger storm. And I'm assuming Bill means Monday as in Sept. 2nd.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Empty Re: 2019 TROPICAL SEASON

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Aug 26, 2019 12:45 pm

A little north2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 05l_tr10
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4374
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 42
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

Page 2 of 17 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 9 ... 17  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum