2019 TROPICAL SEASON

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jul 14, 2019 9:20 pm

rb924119 wrote:No, Jman haha but I know of whom you speak; I’ve seen some of his stuff floating around social media. That’s pretty cool that you went to school together!
Oh the ryan and CT i figured connecticut. I was almost sure it was him. Anyways things as i pointed out will likely be heating up over the next month and into the fall.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Jul 21, 2019 9:34 am

Our first east coast threat, no models develop it and even if it did it would likely get kicked out by a front, unless the war is really strong and far north.  Sometimes models do not catch on until later on we will see.

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Nhc10
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Post by Spacemanspiff99 on Sat Jul 27, 2019 2:55 pm

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Screen10

I just saw this scrolling through Facebook. While I'm not a met or anything I love this forum and have for years (I post on occasion haha). But I always keep an eye out for hurricanes as we live on the bay. Maybe you guys know more about it?

Cheers!

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Post by billg315 on Tue Jul 30, 2019 1:53 pm

Nothing urgent brewing in the Atlantic right now. There is a wave in the far eastern Atlantic that could bear watching in a few days as it gets closer to the western Atlantic, but its a long way off for now.
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Post by Snow88 on Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:45 pm

Nothing is going to affect the US in the foreseeable future with the troughs coming down on the models
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:48 pm

Hold onto your hats the next 3 months are gonna be crazy, they just upped to a overactive season with 10-17 named storms 3-7 huricanes and 3-4 cat 3 or higher, being there has not been but what one? named storm that is a average of one to two every week!!
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Post by dkodgis on Thu Aug 08, 2019 5:57 pm

Lee Goldberg said it would havevto get busy fast. He said this tonight. I guess it is getting busy fast
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Post by billg315 on Thu Aug 08, 2019 7:43 pm

That is rather incredible. There is nothing forecast to develop in the Atlantic for the next week, at least. That means any activity wouldn’t fire up until the last two weeks of August at the earliest. Given the Atlantic’s peak season is from the end of July to the end of September almost all of that activity would have to happen in a little over a month. Either they’re off the mark or September is going to be crazy in the Atlantic.
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Post by billg315 on Mon Aug 12, 2019 10:37 am

Nothing brewing in the Atlantic at all. NHC says no development expected for at least the next five days. That pushes us almost to the end of August before we'd likely see any impacts from any tropical systems on the U.S. (barring a quick flare-up in the Gulf of Mexico next week).
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Post by sroc4 on Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:21 pm

billg315 wrote:Nothing brewing in the Atlantic at all. NHC says no development expected for at least the next five days. That pushes us almost to the end of August before we'd likely see any impacts from any tropical systems on the U.S. (barring a quick flare-up in the Gulf of Mexico next week).

200MB vertical velocity forecast for week 2 starting to look interesting for the Atlantic basin.  Should that forecast come to fruition things will likely come to life.  That said there are also somewhat favorable conditions in the eastern Pac off the central american coast as well.  If trop development in this location it often steals the upward motion thunder from the Atlantic basin

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Twc_globe_mjo_vp200

_________________
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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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Post by amugs on Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:49 pm

Later August through mid Spetemwbr is prime season and it will be again as conditions look to be forecasted as SROC pointed more favorable for tropical development.

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Post by dkodgis on Mon Aug 12, 2019 4:20 pm

I know it all can change in a few days as thing pop but that is what I notice. Some see it Jiffy-popping as in ready to pop an others say quiet but soon. I am curious if hellzapoppin’ soon
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Post by sroc4 on Mon Aug 19, 2019 5:12 pm

sroc4 wrote:
billg315 wrote:Nothing brewing in the Atlantic at all. NHC says no development expected for at least the next five days. That pushes us almost to the end of August before we'd likely see any impacts from any tropical systems on the U.S. (barring a quick flare-up in the Gulf of Mexico next week).

200MB vertical velocity forecast for week 2 starting to look interesting for the Atlantic basin.  Should that forecast come to fruition things will likely come to life.  That said there are also somewhat favorable conditions in the eastern Pac off the central american coast as well.  If trop development in this location it often steals the upward motion thunder from the Atlantic basin

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Twc_globe_mjo_vp200

Recall what I posted above last Monday.  Here is the updated forecast.  I wish I took a snap shot and saved last weeks forecast to compare last weeks week 2 forecast to this weeks week 1 forecast.  The image above in the quote is updated with the current forecast because I copy and pasted the URL instead of saving and inserting the image i guess.  Anyway, The second image, which is now the week one 200mb velocity potential, still on course for trop activity to amp up.  Notice however there are the blue colors(represents favored upward motion) located in the Eastern Pac as well as the Western Atl/GOM/Caribbean.  I still think we see a trop system or two develop in the eastern Pac first which likely prevents upward motion on the Atlantic side.  However as the 200mb VP conts to shift notice the entire Pac is under the influence of the warm colors(favored sinking air) in the week two forecast.  IF this cont to evolve as is being forecasted things will become active fo show.

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 2 Vp200m10

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
Nov 15th 3.00"
Feb 12th 2.75"
Feb 20th 0.75”
Feb 28th 0.25"
March 2nd 3.5"
March 3rd-4th 4.00"
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