2019 TROPICAL SEASON

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:33 pm

Likely GFS has seen the huge drop in the forecast for that system coming off africa, went from 90% to 50%, do not see a lot of promise in that.
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Post by amugs on Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:42 pm

Dorian is regaining strength and his eye wall - look at the bright redish and orangy cloud tops and his wind field on the western flank is expanding
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 EDo8n5CX4AAFO9b?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 04, 2019 3:03 pm

amugs wrote:Dorian is regaining strength and his eye wall - look at the bright redish and orangy cloud tops and his wind field on the western flank is expanding
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 EDo8n5CX4AAFO9b?format=jpg&name=medium
Yeah I just noted that myself, I think he may gain wind speeds to some extent, this could also alter his path slightly. You can see on NHC wind swatch how much it has expanded since he was born, pretty incredible.
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Post by amugs on Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:09 pm

A jog weast ?? See what happens but can bring minor affects to NJ Shore and LI as well if this were to occur
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 585B9C22-6B43-4CD7-B1F1-7D3F8F2F6343.thumb.gif.492734d33ee407535fa4d12b8c9d0fcb

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Post by amugs on Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:12 pm

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Gfs_mslp_wind_neus_10

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Gfs_mslp_wind_neus_11

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:12 pm

amugs wrote:A jog weast ?? See what happens but can bring minor affects to NJ Shore and LI as well if this were to occur
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 585B9C22-6B43-4CD7-B1F1-7D3F8F2F6343.thumb.gif.492734d33ee407535fa4d12b8c9d0fcb
Thats the old GFS bud, useless. The new GFS actually went east.What are the cahnces he coms inside the bench mark? Or is that totally off the table? My guess is its unlikely but they still do not have 0% for a bit N and west of NYC on east.
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Post by amugs on Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:14 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:A jog weast ?? See what happens but can bring minor affects to NJ Shore and LI as well if this were to occur
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 585B9C22-6B43-4CD7-B1F1-7D3F8F2F6343.thumb.gif.492734d33ee407535fa4d12b8c9d0fcb
Thats the old GFS bud, useless. The new GFS actually went east.

Ah yes sorry but still gonna bring minor affects to the shores

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:16 pm

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:A jog weast ?? See what happens but can bring minor affects to NJ Shore and LI as well if this were to occur
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 585B9C22-6B43-4CD7-B1F1-7D3F8F2F6343.thumb.gif.492734d33ee407535fa4d12b8c9d0fcb
Thats the old GFS bud, useless. The new GFS actually went east.

Ah yes sorry but still gonna bring minor affects to the shores
Not to say that the new GFS isnt useless either, none of the models handled this completely right.
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Post by amugs on Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:02 pm

Surface winds backnup to 114mph.
NG for Ga through OBX - gonna have a bigly storm surge there.
He's strengthening and it is not good for the areas.

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Post by amugs on Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:06 pm

Landfall gonna happen in NC, Euro a bit more west.

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:09 pm

amugs wrote:Landfall  gonna happen in NC, Euro a bit more west.
where do you get the 18z euro? or do you mean the 12z is west?
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Post by amugs on Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:09 pm


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Post by amugs on Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:10 pm

Jman, got it from Maue

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:15 pm

amugs wrote:Jman, got it from Maue
ahh okay, yeah im not surprised at this in fact he may go up fairly significantly, need watch.
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Post by amugs on Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:48 pm

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Img_2037

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:09 pm

that. Does not look for the Wilmington to Beaufort who was hit hard last year
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:02 pm

Dorian is a 115mph cat 3 again. Oh boy.
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Post by sroc4 on Thu Sep 05, 2019 9:04 am

Weakening this am.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 1.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
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Post by sroc4 on Thu Sep 05, 2019 9:07 am

sroc4 wrote:Weakening this am.  


Looks like a dry air intrusion

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 Goes16_ir_05L_201909051242

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
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Post by rb924119 on Thu Sep 05, 2019 7:32 pm

Last dog in this fight for me is whether this thing makes an official landfall along the NC coast or not. My initial thinking was “close, but no cigar”, but if it does, I really can’t be all that mad haha if it does, my mean track error from 6-10 days out (relative to storm’s trek offshore of the Southeast Coast) will have been ~55 nm. If it doesn’t, that error drops to ~30 nm. Very pleased and proud of this forecast. Enough of that, now, onto the next forecast!

Also, great discussion in here for this event, as per usual! It’s good to see all the posts from you guys, and even better to watch your individual progressions as you continue to learn more with each passing event!! I/we love it!!

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Post by hyde345 on Fri Sep 06, 2019 12:12 pm

Landfall did officially happen this morning at Cape Hatteras(by a hair) as a Cat 1. Highest wind gust was reported to be 96 mph. Eastern Long Island and the Cape Cod will probably see tropical storm wind gusts later today and tonight.
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Post by billg315 on Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:00 pm

Just another example of how 50-100 miles makes a world of difference along the east coast. Here’s how close this came to having (significant) direct impacts on NJ:2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 13 F8799910
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Sep 06, 2019 1:23 pm

We have family friends that live 10 minutes from Morehead City and Emerald Isle in either direction..They are doing good...lucky. Now I do not understand why anyone would stay on Oakracoke Island?? we went and it rained and the place flooded and that was a normal rain storm...they told them to evacuate and now I see on the news 200 people are stranded and waiting for the coast guard...that is ridiculous!!
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Post by jmanley32 on Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:21 pm

It is breezy here. It must be due to Dorian nothing else reason why it's so gusty out. Rain bands knocking 9n rockaways.
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Sep 06, 2019 2:49 pm

jmanley32 wrote:It is breezy here. It must be due to Dorian nothing else reason why it's so gusty out. Rain bands knocking 9n rockaways.
it is due to Dorian.. winds currently here are 13 mph nne and gusts over 20 mph....small craft advisory as well...and pouring rain...glad this is a couple of hundred miles off shore..heard rip currents will be vicious this weekend..and ny will not allow anyone in the water..have not heard for down here though..feels like October instead of beginning of Sept currently 61 degrees
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