2019 TROPICAL SEASON

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Sep 17, 2019 5:32 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:TD10, which was expected to become Imelda, looks to have an ominous future as it is forecast to be a hurricane near the Antilles by the weekend. The system in the Gulf just threw a curve ball and became Tropical Storm Imelda last-minute, which will bring potentially historic rainfall to SE TX. Therefore, TD10 would then be named Jerry.

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 17 382de310
yeah but no models develop this so what is the nhc going by? That looks like a normal ots spot that far north of the islands . doubt makes anywhere close to the us. But as i said I don't see anything but a remnant low on gfs euro and cm. So nhc is going against all models?

All models?  HWRF, a hurricane model, says otherwise. And do you really think the NHc is basing there forecast simply on weather models. Come on man.

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Post by rb924119 on Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:10 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
rb924119 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Okay I am going to go out on a limb here and say the latest runs look scary trying to pull a sandy left hook as it reaches mid atlanic latitude but quickly gets kicked out after traveling west briefly, is it possible he doesnt get kicked out?

I think weathermaps.com has them, but I cannot access them. What models are you looking at? The GEM and NAVGEM? There are three GFS ensemble members that do it, though still well out to sea, and maybe 15 of the EURO Ensemble members (where about half of those say that Humberto should start making a loop back to the south about now lol). I think this is just the models doing their usual dance, and continue to believe that this poses no threat the U.S. Not to mention the hurricane models also continue to show no such threat. Not saying that it can’t, but given the pattern evolution I just don’t see and trust the consensus.
well I was going by the few comments about it possibly moving west. You even said 18z euro to mugs. I'm assuming that run hit the us?

I made the “18z” comment because it’s an off-hour run that doesn’t ingest fresh upper air data, so you can see some whacky things go on with them. Same as 06z lol but the ensemble showed about 1/3 of the members bending back toward the west and U.S. mainland (at that time).

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Post by rb924119 on Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:11 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
SoulSingMG wrote:TD10, which was expected to become Imelda, looks to have an ominous future as it is forecast to be a hurricane near the Antilles by the weekend. The system in the Gulf just threw a curve ball and became Tropical Storm Imelda last-minute, which will bring potentially historic rainfall to SE TX. Therefore, TD10 would then be named Jerry.

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 17 382de310
yeah but no models develop this so what is the nhc going by? That looks like a normal ots spot that far north of the islands . doubt makes anywhere close to the us. But as i said I don't see anything but a remnant low on gfs euro and cm. So nhc is going against all models?

All models?  HWRF, a hurricane model, says otherwise.  And do you really think the NHc is basing there forecast simply on weather models. Come on man.

Sometimes I don’t know what they’re basing their forecast on, to be honest lmao told ya

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Post by amugs on Tue Sep 17, 2019 7:48 pm

Kelvin Wave hitting Atlantic Basin off African Coast and MDR. Gonna be a boom in the next two week from this. Do they get near landfall here in the good old USA remains to be seen.

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:37 pm

yeah your right scott but like rb said lol. But I know they do use the models and often lean towards the globals and not so much hwrf which was one i didnt look at cuz i usually consider it to be rediculous in intensity and shows some pretty wacky outcomes. Humberto is impressive, look at him and he is now a major hurricane 115mph!!
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Sep 18, 2019 10:25 am

Wow 11th named storm already and a new area to watch. We may hit the high end of the new prediction of 10 to 17. So Jerry is pur potential next threat in a week or so? How do those maps look with the blue. Is it still showing blue in western Atlantic.
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Post by sroc4 on Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:26 pm

When the upper air pattern looks like this in September...........


2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 17 Twc_globe_mjo_vp200



You get a trop Atlantic and Trop Pac that look like this....

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 17 Two_atl_0d0
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 17 Two_pac_0d0
2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 17 Two_cpac_0d0


Man its active

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
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WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 3.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
Dec 11th = 2"
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Sep 19, 2019 3:41 pm

It sure is. No notable threats even in the long range. Looks like all fish storms. Boring lol
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Post by Snow88 on Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:51 am

jmanley32 wrote:It sure is. No notable threats even in the long range. Looks like all fish storms. Boring lol

Looks like every storm stays out to sea. It is most likely a weakness caused by Humberto. Our best bet is for a homegrown storm in October.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Sep 29, 2019 9:30 pm

GFS fantasy land has a powerful hurricane coming out of the same area sandy and I rene did, and around October 15th, same time Sandy formed, who knows if this will even be there in a week but might be one toi watch as that area usually causes a threat along east coast, I am not saying landfall,a threat.
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Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Oct 18, 2019 1:48 pm

Nestor quickly up to a 60mph tropical storm, could bring some showers here on Sunday. 12z models are little further north than previous runs

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Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:12 pm

0z NAM again further NW.

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 17 Namconus_ref_frzn_eus_38

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Post by Sanchize06 on Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:28 pm

2019 TROPICAL SEASON - Page 17 Namconus_apcpn_neus_17

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Post by jmanley32 on Sat Oct 19, 2019 7:32 pm

3km nam and 12km ate showing 2 to 4 inches jyst miles offshore of long Island and a good portion of Jersey sees heavy rain and some gusty winds from nestor. Only a small tick north west and some of the area will have ts conditions. Maybe even a watch for coastal areas. But that remains to be seen. Lr models are sticking closed to nhc track. Guess they ate not buying into the sr.
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