October Discussion & Observations

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Post by sroc4 on Thu Oct 03, 2019 8:28 am

Ask and you shall receive Alex!

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" (First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 1.1" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace
Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"
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Post by Frankdp23 on Thu Oct 03, 2019 9:42 am

Hit 93 yesterday. 54 now with .25" of rain since yesterday.

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Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Oct 03, 2019 10:55 am

91° yesterday, 51° now.. funny how cold 50° feels when it's raining!

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      3.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
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Post by docstox12 on Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:39 am

48 degrees with rain.That old song "What A Difference A Day Makes" sure is appropriate today.Nice to see some rain, it was drying up bad around here.Looks like possible frost tomorrow night.Anyway, sure feels like a Fall day today with the trees changing, shorter day and cooler temps.Wind is going to pick up tomorrow should see leaves flying all over the place.
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Post by amugs on Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:42 am

Dunnzoo wrote:91° yesterday,   51° now.. funny how cold 50° feels when it's raining!

Wait till Saturday morning - Jeepies Scoobie!!
Frost and Freeze for many of us.

I like what I am seeing LR in the pattern evolution as we build heights over the top and we have troughs sliding in.
The AMO is slowly cooling and will help to knock down the Death Ridge overall.
Comparative Maps showing this: Last year on the left this year on the right.
NE PAC warming will help build that AL LP and kick he ridge up in the west, BC region.

October Discussion & Observations Screen_Shot_2019_10_02_at_11_09_08_PM

Also region 4 is much warmer than the rest of the tropical pac Nino Zones
October Discussion & Observations Nino4

3.4 climbing which is great news too
October Discussion & Observations Nino34

1.2
October Discussion & Observations Nino12

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Post by amugs on Thu Oct 03, 2019 1:24 pm

October Discussion & Observations EF-FyYvWkAAt1pO?format=jpg&name=large

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Post by amugs on Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:22 pm

Build the pack
October Discussion & Observations Snow-Oct-NA

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Post by amugs on Fri Oct 04, 2019 7:40 am

51* for my low

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Post by dkodgis on Fri Oct 04, 2019 10:01 am

I think Doc left his refrigerator door open. The wind is about 15 mph with some stiff gusts, and very cool.  It is ringing the wind chimes and making the trees dance so I know it is  gusty.
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Post by amugs on Fri Oct 04, 2019 4:24 pm


Frost Advisory
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service New York NY
409 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-NYZ067-068-051200-
/O.CON.KOKX.FR.Y.0002.191005T0400Z-191005T1200Z/
Northern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Northern Middlesex-
Northern New London-Western Passaic-Orange-Putnam-
409 PM EDT Fri Oct 4 2019

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures falling into the mid and upper 30s will
result in frost formation.

* WHERE...In New Jersey, Western Passaic County. In Connecticut,
Northern Fairfield, Northern New Haven, Northern Middlesex,
and Northern New London Counties. In New York, Orange and
Putnam Counties.

* WHEN...From midnight to 8 AM EDT.

* IMPACTS...Frost could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation if left
uncovered.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take steps to protect tender plants from the cold.
October Discussion & Observations Okx10

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Post by Math23x7 on Fri Oct 04, 2019 11:18 pm

43* here in Albany with frost advisories in effect.

There are several coworkers in the office that have lived in the Albany area for decades and I brought up the freak early season snowstorm that happened there on this day in 1987 when 6.5" fell in Albany and over a foot of snow fell in nearby higher elevations. They mentioned that they were without power (and school) for a week. Five days before the snowstorm, it was 80* in Albany. And not long after the storm passed, it warmed up to normal high temperatures in the 60s. I mentioned that downstate, we had our own similar event 10/29/11. Of course, we all know how that winter turned out.

One of the coworkers mentioned the May 18, 2002 snow event that gave Albany several inches of snow and mentioned how strange it was given the 2001-02 was uneventful. She then mentioned that her family loves to go skiing and they hope that lots of snow falls during the winter to make it happen. My response: hope it doesn't snow within the next month and a half. If it does, you can count on a waste of a winter. We saw that with the aforementioned 10/29/11 storm preceding the 2011-12 winter and we saw that with the 11/15/18 and how the 2018-19 winter turned out. Yes, we did have the 11/7/12 post-Sandy snowstorm which preceded a winter with the 2/8/13 event (aka Nemo). But after 11/7/12, it took until the last week of January to get another one inch plus event.

At any rate, after this brief chill down, the high temperatures here in Albany look to get back into the normal highs in the 60s where it is expected to be much of next week.

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Post by dkodgis on Sat Oct 05, 2019 7:53 am

Almost 8 am and 31 degrees here. The deck has a minute film of glaze, it's slippery, and a tiny bit of frost on the pumpkin. I guess this means we have another 90 degree day coming.
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Oct 05, 2019 8:29 am

Low of 46* overnight..love it!!
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Post by Snow88 on Sat Oct 05, 2019 9:13 am

48 here

Euro has a lot of rain next week with a blocking pattern. Interesting to see what happens.
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Post by amugs on Sat Oct 05, 2019 9:37 am

41* for my low here. Not quite sure if this is accurate on my system, it needs to be recalibrated before the big season begins!!

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Post by frank 638 on Sat Oct 05, 2019 10:05 am

Morning low of44 deg Finally feeling like fall and October baseball i was at the game last night let’s go Yankees

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Post by docstox12 on Sat Oct 05, 2019 10:30 am

Low of 32 this morning with frost on the roof.First official frost of the season here.Winds have calmed since yesterday and a nice Fall chill in the air.
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Post by amugs on Sat Oct 05, 2019 10:32 pm

Could have an interesting system this week mid tome frame that is cold core that transforms to warm core just off the coast and the warmer waters may tug this west on e that tranformation occurs.
PS - possible record breaking cold to grip the west and midwest tjis week this halting growing season. Also another historic snowstorm out there, possibly! Not boring well for our crop harvest. Going to have ripple affects on our food chain and supply.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Oct 06, 2019 12:20 am

yeah mugs looks like a tropical or subtropical system comes up coast then gets blocked pusged west and sits. mass gets 6 to 8 inches rain. also pretty gusty winds especially east. will have to see if this pushes further west or not.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Oct 06, 2019 12:22 am

and theres the yellow area.

October Discussion & Observations Two_at13
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Post by SoulSingMG on Mon Oct 07, 2019 3:10 pm

The 12z Euro made a BIG jump to the NW (like by hundreds of miles lol) with the coastal storm mid-week, resulting in potential heavier effects along our coast.
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Post by amugs on Mon Oct 07, 2019 3:53 pm

Oh boy king euro says battin down the hatches for LI, NE and Coastal NJ and Conn
Mobile can't post maps
On my way from my final chemo treatment

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 on Mon Oct 07, 2019 4:42 pm

Yep, depending on how this system tracks Wednesday, could be a windy wet Wednesday along the coast.
Also, the GFS showing another possible coastal low around the middle of Next week (10/17 time frame) with possibly snow mixing at the higher elevations in PA and the Catskills. Still more than a week off so take it with a grain of salt . . . point is, when these things even start showing up on the models you know: Winter is coming.
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Post by amugs on Mon Oct 07, 2019 4:59 pm

500 MBA map from euro

Big sigma 3 level block overhead.
It can't get out and gets shoved west

October Discussion & Observations Img_2012

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Mon Oct 07, 2019 5:01 pm

Recurring typhoon Gonna cause a PNA spike and heat flux rush into the arctic and a trough over the NE and may pump the AO and NAO block
October Discussion & Observations Gfs_2010



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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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