October Discussion & Observations

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:17 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Gorgeous fall weekend ahead. Outside chance of showers Sunday, mainly south of NYC.
I think ya blew that forecast LOL, it poured all second half of the day and still is must have had at least a inch or two. Hey no one really expected x-nestor to get so far north. Just joking around. So whats with this possible snow on Halloween?
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Post by amugs on Sun Oct 20, 2019 10:24 pm

.42" of rain and 51*
NAM schooled the globals bigly.
If this were snow people would be pooping mad right now having 3-6" of snow.
Great sign of things to come.
Fall pattern is shaping up nicely in the late week/weekend overall.
Midish next week looks to have a deep trough over the NE.

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Post by Math23x7 on Mon Oct 21, 2019 12:53 am

Here in Albany, I had several hours of rain but not as much as areas in the NYC region.  Right before sunset, there was a rainbow sighting:

October Discussion & Observations - Page 7 Rainbo10

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Post by dkodgis on Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:45 am

Thank you. I always appreciate a good rainbow. Still plenty of leaves I see.
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Oct 22, 2019 8:38 am

Nice rainbow... here at Disney this morning is 76 and 95 percent humidity.... About to embark on another 13 hour day of fun☺☺
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Post by dkodgis on Thu Oct 24, 2019 8:16 am

32 this morning as the low. It looks like not tomorrow and the weekend but next weekend we start flirting with 50 or below as highs and below 32 lows. Yet this weekend, it looks like we are in the 60-65 high range. Change will be here soon
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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Oct 26, 2019 10:11 am

jmanley32 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Gorgeous fall weekend ahead. Outside chance of showers Sunday, mainly south of NYC.
I think ya blew that forecast LOL, it poured all second half of the day and still is must have had at least a inch or two.  Hey no one really expected x-nestor to get so far north. Just joking around. So whats with this possible snow on Halloween?

Hahahaha might have been the worse forecast in the history of this forums existence. I think it flooded here.

The snow threat near Halloween is diminishing. The storm is poised to cut into the Lakes

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Post by amugs on Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:29 pm

Back to back washout weekend Sundays
October Discussion & Observations - Page 7 Image.png.c7c7615806ae8bef826ac353fa5e4fc3

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Oct 27, 2019 8:36 am

amugs wrote:Back to back washout weekend Sundays
October Discussion & Observations - Page 7 Image.png.c7c7615806ae8bef826ac353fa5e4fc3

Hey Mugs, hope you are feeling good??!! Yep, we have heavy rain here this am...good day for a family movie or a good book...also have a question...what is meant by pattern change around the 10th? Colder weather??
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Post by amugs on Sun Oct 27, 2019 9:36 am

Mom,

Feeling very good now that I finished my Chemo this past Sunday WOOO HOOO!!!! Follow up Monday and exit plan strategy will commence.

55* and .25" in the bucket
Pattern change means yes a colder pattern for our weather - BN temps regime could be settling in.
13-14/14-15 it happened on almost the same date!!!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Oct 27, 2019 10:29 am

Blah day

October Discussion & Observations - Page 7 Inxr1Kphla_h

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Post by frank 638 on Sun Oct 27, 2019 1:01 pm

Pouring now today is perfect day just to relax watch movies and football

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Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Oct 27, 2019 1:04 pm

It has been pouring here for a few hours here, almost at 2" and we have at least another hour to go!

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Oct 27, 2019 1:11 pm

Our bridge never floods, i have rarely seen rain this hard for so long, even last sunday and the noreaster didnt flood.  It has about 4 inches of standing water people are speeding through it accident waiting to happen. I would say we have to be way over 2 inches maybe 3 or 4. and most within the past 2 hrs.
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Post by frank 638 on Sun Oct 27, 2019 1:31 pm

Lots Flooding on the Hutchinson River Parkway especially towards the Bronx and Pelham

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Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Oct 27, 2019 2:25 pm

Rain is done here.... 2.2"

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Oct 28, 2019 9:14 pm

Looks like halloween will be ruined and a washout with wind gusts into the 40s especially late evening and overnight. Might be higher when the front passes through, Euro shows a brief period of gusts over 50mph.
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Oct 28, 2019 10:10 pm

I know this does not concern our area but it is technically weather related and in October. Lets pray for those in Sonoma and surrounding counties in CA. Largest evacuation in the counties history, 76000 acres burned only 15% contained and thats expected to possibly drop back to 0% tonight, my father in law can see the flames, his wife is disabled, they have been told to pack their bags for possible mandatory evacuation. It is my fear most of that county will be uninhabitable sometime this week, this has to be the worst CA fire I have ever seen.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 30, 2019 4:40 pm

Wind advisory up for all of CT hww for RI to Cape. I expect most of area to see wind advisory with potential for higher. SR models are impressive with the winds ahead of and behind the front and I am also not go be surprised to see severe storms for many as that line looks intense and 3km actually has a double line behind it but not as intense. About a inch of rain. I think strongest winds have high potential with the line mainly. Still very gusty before and after. Accurate has me gusting to 63mph tomorrow night. Guess what it's garbage night! Yay my neighborhood is going to be a mess the piles for our buildings are huge and even winds to 40mph start a mess any higher and forget it. Let's see how this plays out.
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Post by Radz on Thu Oct 31, 2019 6:06 am

jmanley32 wrote:Wind advisory up for all of CT hww for RI to Cape. I expect most of area to see wind advisory with potential for higher. SR models are impressive with the winds ahead of and behind the front and I am also not go be surprised to see severe storms for many as that line looks intense and 3km actually has a double line behind it but not as intense. About a inch of rain. I think strongest winds have high potential with the line mainly. Still very gusty before and after. Accurate has me gusting to 63mph tomorrow night. Guess what it's garbage night! Yay my neighborhood is going to be a mess the piles for our buildings are huge and even winds to 40mph start a mess any higher and forget it. Let's see how this plays out.

Very dynamic cold front, SPC has some of us in marginal risk, wonder if that will expand later today. Gusty winds ahead of the front as well with some shear thrown in and tornadic spin ups along the front are not out of the question either
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Oct 31, 2019 6:39 am

Holy cow, brief 3 hr period for most of this but even one gust anywhere near this is crazy, lets see if it plays out, 9/10 it doesnt but as radz said this is a  ery dynamic front and out ahead of it I can see some insane straightline winds.

October Discussion & Observations - Page 7 Ecmwf-17

radz I think, we will go into at least the slight area, if not the enhanced, the SR models show the line extending much further north than SPC has right now, maybe they feel it will die, out which does happen a lot of times.
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Post by amugs on Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:35 am

jmanley32 wrote:Holy cow, brief 3 hr period for most of this but even one gust anywhere near this is crazy, lets see if it plays out, 9/10 it doesnt but as radz said this is a  ery dynamic front and out ahead of it I can see some insane straightline winds.

October Discussion & Observations - Page 7 Ecmwf-17

radz I think, we will go into at least the slight area, if not the enhanced, the SR models show the line extending much further north than SPC has right now, maybe they feel it will die, out which does happen a lot of times.

My thinking is from the skew T maps that hate to say it JMan but we may have a hard time see these gusts, up to 50mph range is very possible but 60'sI think are along the coast and LI. EURO has a bias for over doing winds by sometimes 10-20%. There are tremendous winds aloft at 925 and 850 but will have a tough time mixing down. IF we get a strong line of t-storms as predicted then before and more so after the front we can see strong criteria wind gusts.
It will be windy for sure for a good amount of time - a good 12 hours worth approx.
Not a good day for the trick or treaters

GFS says
October Discussion & Observations - Page 7 1572577200-zHjzNhtWSsI

NAM says
October Discussion & Observations - Page 7 1572580800-PQBxDjNWkd8

NDFD (NWS)says upper 30's to low 40's
October Discussion & Observations - Page 7 1572584400-GByuX4372E0

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:56 am

amugs wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Holy cow, brief 3 hr period for most of this but even one gust anywhere near this is crazy, lets see if it plays out, 9/10 it doesnt but as radz said this is a  ery dynamic front and out ahead of it I can see some insane straightline winds.

October Discussion & Observations - Page 7 Ecmwf-17

radz I think, we will go into at least the slight area, if not the enhanced, the SR models show the line extending much further north than SPC has right now, maybe they feel it will die, out which does happen a lot of times.

My thinking is from the skew T maps that hate to say it JMan but we may have a hard time see these gusts, up to 50mph range is very possible but 60'sI think are along the coast and LI. EURO has a bias for over doing winds by sometimes 10-20%. There are tremendous winds aloft at 925 and 850 but will have a tough time mixing down. IF we get a strong line of t-storms as predicted then before and more so after the front we can see strong criteria wind gusts.
It will be windy for sure for a good amount of time - a good 12  hours worth approx.
Not  a  good day for the trick or treaters

GFS says
October Discussion & Observations - Page 7 1572577200-zHjzNhtWSsI

NAM says
October Discussion & Observations - Page 7 1572580800-PQBxDjNWkd8

NDFD (NWS)says upper 30's to low 40's
October Discussion & Observations - Page 7 1572584400-GByuX4372E0
Oh I know its overdone, I think between 45-60 is what it may be like, in a stronger storm maybe a severe gust.
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Oct 31, 2019 9:10 am

Im not buying the higher gust not sure the winds mix down
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Oct 31, 2019 10:02 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:Im not buying the higher gust not sure the winds mix down
I think they will in the actual line of the storm and ahead of it, but not to the magnitude of euro, though i guess its possible.
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