October Discussion & Observations

Page 3 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by amugs on Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:26 pm

Great sign of this trough swinging in cold shot here
October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 IMG_20191012_091552.jpg.8ab46441470a129be3b8c8d0aaf5fe41

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10422
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:20 am

Does thursdays developing low that looks as if it may phase look like anything significant in terms or wind and rain? I think someone mentioned a possible noreaster this week?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by amugs on Sun Oct 13, 2019 9:47 pm

Midweek storm is shaping up so far H5 levelwise. Surface reflection is starting to show up.
30 mph wind gusts and up to 50 on LI and Coastal NJ.
Rains looks to be 1-2" area wide.
Strong backside CAA as it bombs out heading g ul into Gulf of Maine.
Euro
October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Image.png.42cda141967b89213b4bbfd1db371eff

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10422
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by Math23x7 on Sun Oct 13, 2019 11:04 pm

This is a picture I took earlier today of the foliage from Thacher State Park just outside of Albany:

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Foliag10

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2212
Reputation : 62
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by docstox12 on Mon Oct 14, 2019 6:53 am

Math23x7 wrote:This is a picture I took earlier today of the foliage from Thacher State Park just outside of Albany:

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Foliag10

Math23x7:

Beautiful photo Math!!!!!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6767
Reputation : 182
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 69
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Oct 14, 2019 7:30 am

amugs wrote:Midweek storm is shaping up so far H5 levelwise. Surface reflection is starting to show up.
30 mph wind gusts and up to 50 on LI and Coastal NJ.
Rains looks to be 1-2" area wide.
Strong backside CAA as it bombs out heading g ul into Gulf of Maine.
Euro
October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Image.png.42cda141967b89213b4bbfd1db371eff
come on long Island share some that wind it's been a while since I've seen more than a breeze. That looks like some crazy heavy rain. Is it possible these fully phase?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Oct 14, 2019 7:34 am

Wow trhe midweek system is stronger than melissa was 980mb over NYC then a new LP pops just south of nantucket at 974mb and loops back into new england, whats up with all that? Euro now shows wind gusts 40-55mph for entire area 60 plus on long Island! and looks like in 2 rounds during and after the system passes, looks like after may be the longer duration, also shows 3-4 inches rain for most of lower hudson valley and NYC area less to the west and east. Will have see what Sr models say in a day or so.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by amugs on Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:26 pm

Peeps,
A big coastal looks to be heading our way Wednesday into Wednesday night as per latest model runs from 12Z.

EYE CANDY for JMAN - posible gusts
October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 1571324400-uEmEKQrKMJA

Rainfall
October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 1571324400-UWDPj9glt4A

977 off ELI
October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 1571292000-PE18PhnpLuM

Then big pattern changes as we get to late October, big PNA spike, EPO driven pattern thanks to Hagabis recurving and big trough into the NE - BRRRRRR!!! with a another big coastal. This time snows for the interior of our region - Mountains 9Cats and Greens)
October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_namer_fh210-384.thumb.gif.3d493af44395cd2f87592946a7111aaf


MJO supports it as it goes into phase 2 and 3ish??
October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 ECMF_phase_51m_small

Lake effects and streamers to get CP (come out  come out and play from yuor hibernation) and he two toothed SNOWMAN in the mood
October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.thumb.png.b7b41efbe1600c24281aeb37a3082b96

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10422
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by frank 638 on Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:30 pm

I guess I am not going to the Yankee game for wed night .i am excited for our pattern change for the end of the month I am tired of this warm and boring weather

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1983
Reputation : 26
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 36
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:38 pm

The Yankees game Wednesday night is in jeopardy. Most likely to be postponed due to the impending storm. Its felt really fall-like lately. Glad cause the warmer weather was beginning to make me grouchy, haha.

Mikey - nice picture!!!!

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18782
Reputation : 277
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 27
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:01 pm

amugs wrote:Peeps,
A big coastal looks to be heading our way Wednesday into Wednesday night as per latest model runs from 12Z.

EYE CANDY for JMAN - posible gusts
October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 1571324400-uEmEKQrKMJA

Rainfall
October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 1571324400-UWDPj9glt4A

977 off ELI
October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 1571292000-PE18PhnpLuM

Then big pattern changes as we get to late October, big PNA spike, EPO driven pattern thanks to Hagabis recurving and big trough into the NE - BRRRRRR!!! with a another big coastal. This time snows for the interior of our region - Mountains 9Cats and Greens)
October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Gfs_z500a_namer_fh210-384.thumb.gif.3d493af44395cd2f87592946a7111aaf


MJO supports it as it goes into phase 2 and 3ish??
October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 ECMF_phase_51m_small

Lake effects and streamers to get CP (come out  come out and play from yuor hibernation) and he two toothed SNOWMAN in the mood
October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_48.thumb.png.b7b41efbe1600c24281aeb37a3082b96
lol of course my area has a tiny box of calm winds lol. You can never trust these maps anyways. Frank why do you think only 1 inch wed as euro shows much higher and possible wind headlines.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:08 pm

Snow? For all or just inland? We know October Nov snow seems to always lead to a crappy winter, i remember the snowstorm before halloween in like 2011 i think, did a lot of damage.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by algae888 on Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:04 pm

The MJO has been stuck in phase 8 and 1 for 30 straight days now hopefully that happens December January and February
algae888
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4998
Reputation : 38
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 57
Location : mt. vernon, new york

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by amugs on Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:09 pm

This is a drool worthy look. Bring it in 8 weeks and hold for 10 weeks and we dance like maniacs!!

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 932917515_ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-2350400OCT15DAY101-500MBS.png.cbe842d29fce75187c3ad399d9cbc566

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10422
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by amugs on Mon Oct 14, 2019 7:52 pm

WOW getting stronger as per EURO
October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Image.thumb.png.e0d17dffcf2dd097c016c5549844ecec

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Image.thumb.png.832a508c98a2d83448827650a80bf267

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10422
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by billg315 on Mon Oct 14, 2019 9:19 pm

Wednesday will be one of those days where an umbrella does you no good. Get out your raincoats and just prepare to get wet.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2854
Reputation : 147
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 45
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by amugs on Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:00 pm

Holly just put out a message on the storm.
It is going to bomb off of the Jersey coast as it heads to the Cape. Winds and even wrap around showers may last through Thursday.
We have 2 more such storms possibly to round out the month after this one.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10422
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by mwilli on Mon Oct 14, 2019 10:28 pm

i never open my pool in the summer so 2 morrow shore it up with extra waterbags all around the pool for wednesday...i think yankee game gonna be washed out

mwilli

Posts : 39
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2019-02-11

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 15, 2019 6:26 am

HOLY NAM!

972mb right through long island not offshore, LI sees hurricane force gusts, rest area HWW criteria and the area sees 3-6 inches rain! And the winds persist through later thursday!!

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Nam-ma10

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Rain10

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Winds10



jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 15, 2019 7:18 am

It looks like all models even gfs have a faster phase and more consolidated bringing it over the coast instead of well offshore. This could be a pretty bad storm if plays out. And even in wake winds look to howl. I read that Cape Cod has potential for 80mph plus gusts for a brief time. But that was b4 further west track of the main LP. And nws upped rain again 2 to 3 inches higher end chance 4 to 5.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Oct 15, 2019 9:16 am

I'm not buying winds that high always iverdone
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4374
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 42
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:17 am

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm not buying winds that high always iverdone
in discussions I've read they say very possible with such a bombing out system. We will see. And the rain? 4 to 6 in my area? I actually find that harder to believe
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by amugs on Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:31 am

Boom
October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 1982616589_nam3km_apcpn_neus_20(3).thumb.png.0aaff509251c597fed8006ce31f0b51d

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10422
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by amugs on Tue Oct 15, 2019 10:36 am


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10422
Reputation : 169
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 49
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 Empty Re: October Discussion & Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 15, 2019 11:30 am

amugs wrote:Boom
October Discussion & Observations - Page 3 1982616589_nam3km_apcpn_neus_20(3).thumb.png.0aaff509251c597fed8006ce31f0b51d
posted it earlier mugs plus the winds ticked up too. Yeah could be bad. Interesting eastern areas get almost no rain but could get insane winds
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16090
Reputation : 80
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Page 3 of 8 Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum