October Discussion & Observations

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 15, 2019 11:32 am

Mugs you got the 12z run that's 06z
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Oct 15, 2019 1:25 pm

I'm going with 25-35 mph winds along coastal areas of nj
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 15, 2019 1:45 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm going with 25-35 mph winds along coastal areas of nj
with a sub 980mb system believe that's too low. And that's not my biased wind freak in me. Maybe Jersey coast but once you hit nyc and east I think escalates a lot. Imo.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 15, 2019 1:47 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm going with 25-35 mph winds along coastal areas of nj
maybe sustained.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:00 pm

Wind advisory up already for most of NJ gusts to 50mph. If 3km nam is right that could go up a tad. Flood watch very small part of ne nj I expect that to cover most of the area and the wind advisory will also expand as we head toward tomorrow. 3km nam has gusts 40 to 50mph through Thurs night!
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:03 pm

October Discussion & Observations - Page 4 Image_30

Jman I dont agree I dont believe winds will mix all the way down. Im thinking 25-30mph sustained with 40-50 gust at most
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:46 pm

That's 10 meter gusts those are the numbers im saying gusts about 50mph what's the debate? I'm confused. Out on Cape Cod I was saying 60 plus was possible. Thats also euro not as intense as nam. I think sr is what we need to look at 24 hrs out or less. Regardless my local just showed 3 inches rain here and a 18 plus he period of gusts 40 to 50mph. That will cause trouble with fully leaf trees.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 15, 2019 4:55 pm

Wow actually my local just showed time lapse of winds starts late afternoon tomorrow and lasts till later Thurs. Looks like 50mph gusts bout 7am Thursday I think that's after the msin precip. I'm actually more concerned with the backend winds which often do overpetform. A few years ago there was similar storm. We shall see.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Oct 15, 2019 5:03 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:October Discussion & Observations - Page 4 Image_30

Jman I dont agree I dont believe winds will mix all the way down. Im thinking 25-30mph sustained with 40-50 gust at most
just realized these are not only surface but also knots wow. So higher than 50mph is possible . that's only 10 meters that's surface. i thought that was weatherbell but its not, they look exactly alike, did they steal wxbells style?
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Post by sroc4 on Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:23 am

jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:October Discussion & Observations - Page 4 Image_30

Jman I dont agree I dont believe winds will mix all the way down. Im thinking 25-30mph sustained with 40-50 gust at most
just realized these are not only surface but also knots wow. So higher than 50mph is possible . that's only 10 meters that's surface. i thought that was weatherbell but its not, they look exactly alike, did they steal wxbells style?

Ryan Maue used to be with Bell and he is the one that developed this software. He left, but Bell still has rights. RM started his own sight that has a similar format since its his software that he developed.

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:28 am

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:October Discussion & Observations - Page 4 Image_30

Jman I dont agree I dont believe winds will mix all the way down. Im thinking 25-30mph sustained with 40-50 gust at most
just realized these are not only surface but also knots wow. So higher than 50mph is possible . that's only 10 meters that's surface. i thought that was weatherbell but its not, they look exactly alike, did they steal wxbells style?

Ryan Maue used to be with Bell and he is the one that developed this software.  He left, but Bell still has rights.  RM started his own sight that has a similar format since its his software that he developed.  
ahh makes sense. What's ur take on this noreaster. Is it going to be bad or just a boreaster. Lol
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Post by sroc4 on Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:37 am

Honestly I haven’t really been looking at the weather in any detail. My life is about a crazy as it’s ever been with all the stuff that goes on in it. My take would be that I’m in the camp with Skins here. Models typically overdo the wind impacts. The NWS is forced to put up warning but I expect the vast majority of the population will be dealing with your typical fall Boreaster. (Love the term jman). There will be high wind gusts I’m sure; perhaps even as high as 50-60mph, but This will be isolated and likely confined to extreme coast locations like the cape and perhaps the twin forks. Yes some trees, tree limbs, and I’m sure plenty of small branches and leaves will fall but again overall this does not excite me much at all.

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Post by billg315 on Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:16 am

Jman your statement above is probably accurate (i.e. that it's the winds behind the storm that will be strongest). I think during the rain this afternoon and evening it will certainly be breezy with some wind gusts, but the more damaging winds will wrap in behind the storm after the rain is gone. I think the strongest winds will be out of the Northwest on Thursday morning and early afternoon. Probably see a lot of leaves come down during the day tomorrow POST-rain. And of course, if tonight is trash night, expect your trash cans to be blowing all around the neighborhood tomorrow.
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Post by amugs on Wed Oct 16, 2019 9:49 am

billg315 wrote:Jman your statement above is probably accurate (i.e. that it's the winds behind the storm that will be strongest).  I think during the rain this afternoon and evening it will certainly be breezy with some wind gusts, but the more damaging winds will wrap in behind the storm after the rain is gone. I think the strongest winds will be out of the Northwest on Thursday morning and early afternoon.  Probably see a lot of leaves come down during the day tomorrow POST-rain. And of course, if tonight is trash night, expect your trash cans to be blowing all around the neighborhood tomorrow.

Absolute cause that is when this bad boys BOMBS out. If we were on teh easterly side of this we'd see great winds but 15-25MPH winds with gusts over 30MPH for teh area. More as yuo go east and shore line bound.

Winds maybe maxed out here bewteen 1ish and 5ish

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Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Oct 16, 2019 2:28 pm

I think we’re in for some higher-end wind surprises with this one. HRRR isn’t backing down on brief but intense “back-end” gusts.
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Post by Grselig on Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:33 pm

Well, the Wind Advisory just went up.
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 16, 2019 3:45 pm

Yep I think gusts around 50mph will be frequent. The wind advisory is 24 hrs long wow. Says coast initially then widespread 10pm to 6pm tomorrow. Scattered power outages expected per the advisory. We will see. Soul hrrr haven't seen it yet but if it's like 3km nam oh boy.
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Post by billg315 on Wed Oct 16, 2019 4:47 pm

Fair to say we’re socked in with heavy rain for the next few hours.October Discussion & Observations - Page 4 88a96c10
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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:02 pm

Ya think? Lol winds are picking up here a little too.
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Post by amugs on Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:49 pm

Upton just changed their wind forecast for everyone in their FWZ which under their "elevated wind" key states: "Sustained winds 31-39 mph or Wind gusts 46-57 mph"

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Post by dkodgis on Wed Oct 16, 2019 6:52 pm

It rained heavily from 5-5:30. But it started at 3 and is still going. So far no wind
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Post by frank 638 on Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:29 pm

Heavy rain now no wind yet it hasn’t rain this much since the day I got from Aruba in August

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:48 pm

amugs wrote:Upton just changed their wind forecast for everyone in their FWZ which under their "elevated wind" key states: "Sustained winds 31-39 mph or Wind gusts 46-57 mph"
what is fwz and where did you see this?
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Post by docstox12 on Wed Oct 16, 2019 7:52 pm

Howling winds and heavy rain.When it was light out, leaves were blowing off the trees big time.Almost peak color up here.
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Post by dkodgis on Wed Oct 16, 2019 8:03 pm

I did see that on Upton. As for wind, Doc, nothimg up here and no real leaf bombs onto lawn or driveway. I can’t figure it.
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