Long Range Thread 19.0

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Post by amugs on Thu Oct 31, 2019 1:32 pm

This is impressive downright cray cray for early Nov
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_T850a_eus_39

A snapshot of WHAT COULD BE
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 2 1573300800-UABZQ2N9qfM

CAN YOU SAY COLD GRIP
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_42

Warm Blob in NE PAC up by Canada going to do some dirty work -
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 2 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

SUn UPDATE
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 28 days
2019 total: 227 days (75%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Going after record here peeps - lowest since Dalton and Maunder Minimums incoming.
Do we break 270? 280? I think we make a run for 282!!

Puffers are acting up long list but this is a VEI 2 explosion and it has had 4 over the last 5 days
Sabancaya Volcano Volcanic Ash Advisory: PUFF EMISSIONS to 27000 ft (8200 m)
Thu, 31 Oct 2019, 06:30
Explosive activity continues. Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) Buenos Aires warned about a volcanic ash plume that rose up to estimated 27000 ft (8200 m) altitude or flight level 270 and is moving at 20 kts in SW direction. ...more [read all

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Post by Snow88 on Thu Oct 31, 2019 2:04 pm

Areas in the north east has a chance snow around the 10th with a possible clipper. It keeps trending south thanks to the -EPO
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Oct 31, 2019 8:31 pm

I say bring it on Mugs!!
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Post by amugs on Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:42 am

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_26
WOW the PNA and EPO connection up to Russia is very impressive, That is a deep trough setting yup over the NE and will hopefully increase as we get closer in time. The barclonic zone between teh blue adn reddish colors is where a storm track woudl likely set up.

White Gold incoming next weekendish - keeping with my call of 1st week of November for some white flakes adn possible accumulations in teh elevation areas.

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Post by amugs on Fri Nov 01, 2019 10:43 am

Look at his ring oh height rises around that trough
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_45

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 2 Gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_51

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Post by rb924119 on Sat Nov 02, 2019 2:36 pm

EURO Op just went full weenie mode for next week lol and so it begins....

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Post by algae888 on Sat Nov 02, 2019 3:36 pm

rb924119 wrote:EURO Op just went full weenie mode for next week lol and so it begins....
Yes rb just saw that. And we're inside of six days but whether we get snow or not or even a storm system the cold is very impressive we could be looking at all time record lows from Mississippi all the way to Maine
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Post by algae888 on Sat Nov 02, 2019 3:43 pm

Frank you need to add the 8th and 9th to the snow index forecast. All the models have some sort of system and the Euro gives us several inches of snow
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Post by amugs on Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:43 pm

QBO descending into the range of atmsopsheric decoupling territory as has been seen in past years as such, 2009-10, 2002-03
Due to low solar?? BINGO!!
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 2 113645833_QBOIndex(1).png.1117c9dc458fe29143b428a26e7ce055

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Post by amugs on Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:51 pm

This is major record breaking cold being modelled next week by the GFS. From Canada all the way done to Tropical Mexico !!
Why?? Low solar, major uptick in Volcanoes and a positive IOD - Indian ocean dipole.
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 2 Gfs_T2ma_namer_43.png.e086df426248ed0872e35e4a9e0dacec

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WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by aiannone on Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:23 am

Welcome back everyone! Winter threats are back. Let’s get going on tracking!
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Post by algae888 on Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:41 am

Today's 12z icon is several inches of snow for most of Northern New Jersey lower Hudson Valley and Connecticut a big shift south from last night's run now let's get the GFS to move north if it does today at 12 Z we should start a thread for this event great to be tracking so early in the season
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Post by algae888 on Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:50 am

This is really a thread the needle set up as are most of our snow storms. So this is the setup and basically what we need if we are to see snow in the tri-state area. The initial cold front comes through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning It kind of gets hung up to our South. Then there's the second push of extremely cold air along with a Southern stream wave. If there's a phase too early the system gets wound up and wi'll cut and we will see rain if the system is too weak it will get squashed by the cold coming in and it will basically just be a frontal passage with any moisture passing well to our South so we need this wave to be somewhere in the middle not too weak or not too strong and timed just right with the front and cold air pushing in. My thinking right now is that it will be weak and get squashed however I think we could see some snow as the arctic front comes in probably not accumulating for most areas
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Post by algae888 on Sun Nov 03, 2019 10:54 am

516 thickness on November 9th incredible temps in the upper teens to low twenties next Saturday that would be record-breaking for some areas according to today's 12z icon
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Post by algae888 on Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:10 am

Today's 12z GFS is a miss but an improvement from the last two runs. I should have noted earlier that we need the southern stream system out ahead of the cold Arctic air coming in which is what the icon does and is approximately 6 hours ahead of the GFS. The GFS moved it out a little quicker today and a couple of hundred miles in five days is not impossible so we track
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Post by algae888 on Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:22 pm

Oh Canada the CMC of big hit for Northwest sections of our area
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Post by algae888 on Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:29 pm

And the King Euro just came in with two to five inches from the city north and west and into Connecticut Frank would love to hear your thoughts maybe you can start a thread on this later today or tomorrow
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Post by algae888 on Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:53 pm

Then we have to watch the 12th the one Frank has in his snow index one thing's for sure it's going to be brutally cold for November standards the next week to 10 days and possibly longer as these EPO ridges are usually slow to break down. These air masses are originating over the North Pole coming straight down through central Canada and then Southeast to us if this was January we be talkin below zero temperatures
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Nov 03, 2019 2:00 pm

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 2 04332610
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Post by amugs on Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:10 pm

There will be record cold all the way to..............Florida and teh SE and into Mexico - the freeze will hit the Fla grove - short it if you are an investor.
The cold will be colder and peeps will poop with this air mass.
Several snow opportunities showing up.
EPO is a beast with heights rising over Greenland and AO region.
Will break down eventually but when it reloads - watch out.
QBO is in line 1995 as I posted teh other day.
SST temps are in line with 13-14 and 14-15 but more so 13-14 - who wants to take this for our winter???
Question Question Question
cheers cheers cheers cheers cheers

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WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by amugs on Sun Nov 03, 2019 6:20 pm

Here is the massive cold intrusion
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 2 EIdpTNDW4AI0-vP?format=png&name=medium

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by Math23x7 on Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:58 am

11/4/19 0Z ECMWF OP hr 99; 11/7/19 10 PM EST, NY State.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 2 Ecmwf110

Interesting....

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Post by amugs on Mon Nov 04, 2019 9:47 pm

Great short video on the upcoming winter

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Nov 05, 2019 12:04 pm

amugs wrote:Great short video on the upcoming winter

thanks mugs...hope it works out this year!!
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Post by Math23x7 on Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:51 pm

The MJO forecast from the ECMWF as of today:

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 2 Mjoecm12

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