Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

[HectorO]

4 weeks? lol that's another month of winter gone.

[Frank_Wx]

Some noteworthy facts about the long range right now:

1. I recall reading some winter outlooks many suspected ENSO to be Modoki style El Nino. However, the greatest activity has been in the western and eastern sections of the equatorial Pacific. The region between the dateline and 120W has been devoid of convection.



2. Although the long range thru Christmas looks bleak the warm pool in the northern Pacific remains. This tells me regardless what happens the rest of this month, we should see a re-load of the trough settling over the eastern U.S. after the New Year.



3. This is supported by the tropical forcing that is forecasted to occur on Christmas. It's possible we see a re-load prior to the New Year or right around it.



4. The MJO is also seeing this wave - showing it exiting the COD into phase 7 end of month



5. The Stratosphere will undergo major changes, possibly resulting in a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event.



I am more confident in the tropical forcing / Pacific warm pool bringing back the winter pattern for eastern CONUS than I am for any SSWE at the moment. Until then, do not expect much activity.

[amugs]

Looking at the maps, we may see a couple of possible minor snow chances as we enter the xmas day to late Dec timeframe. With an HP blockish parked in Eastern Canada the chances will be every few days as energy rotates around the base of the trough. Could it be rain? For the coast and below I78 a better chance for rain but time will tell.
Temperature analog forecast , from Homenuk off twitter colder than normal for January, where do I sign

[amugs]

Dates for possible minor snow events:
12/26
12/28
12/31
1/3-4 ish moderate to big snow event
1/7-9 ish big snow event

As of now.

[amugs]

My take on the above, ripped this from PB at 33&rain. Shortwaves undercutbthe block and albeit light snows maybe we have an xmas miracle at night.

[frank 638]

My take on the above, ripped this from PB at 33&rain. Shortwaves undercutbthe block and albeit light snows maybe we have an xmas miracle at night.

my fingers are crossed

[mwilli]

When anyone get's a chance go to tropical tidbits,something interesting showing up on 1/4/2020 366-384 hours(GFS)model to early to call worth checking out.......

[amugs]

When anyone get's a chance go to tropical tidbits,something interesting showing up on 1/4/2020 366-384 hours(GFS)model to early to call worth checking out.......

Yes sir see it but ways out there - I'd like that within 120 hrs LOL!!
Still think we may see something Dec 25th/26th ish - weenie in me hoping for the 25th at night albeit weak light flakes as a clipper dives in under the HP in Eastern Canada - we'll see.

[amugs]

New years eve??
The orange is block with the press from it will force the LP under it - tings wont cut with this. They can come to our west but then transfer to the coast - some may not like it but you get what you get and yuo dont get upset.

[heehaw453]

Looks like Christmas high temps low to mid 40's for most and dry. If not going to snow, then I can live with that.

Could get warmer December 28 & 29 (50s) before cold front cools things off. How warm it gets from Dec 26-30 determines if we are AN or BN for December. In any event it's probably going to be close and am interested to see if we can be BN temps in December for a change.

Maybe we can get lucky and pick up an inch or two of snow toward NYE as cold front comes through. Then probably gets colder beginning of January. If we get any snow during beginning of January period that's just too far to know ATTM.

[skinsfan1177]

Looks like Christmas high temps low to mid 40's for most and dry.  If not going to snow, then I can live with that.  

Could get warmer December 28 & 29 (50s) before cold front cools things off.  How warm it gets from Dec 26-30 determines if we are AN or BN for December.  In any event it's probably going to be close and am interested to see if we can be BN temps in December for a change.  

Maybe we can get lucky and pick up an inch or two of snow toward NYE as cold front comes through.  Then probably gets colder beginning of January.  If we get any snow during beginning of January period that's just too far to know ATTM.

I believe December finishes normal or -1. I like the look jan 1-20 for some snow

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

Looks like Christmas high temps low to mid 40's for most and dry.  If not going to snow, then I can live with that.  

Could get warmer December 28 & 29 (50s) before cold front cools things off.  How warm it gets from Dec 26-30 determines if we are AN or BN for December.  In any event it's probably going to be close and am interested to see if we can be BN temps in December for a change.  

Maybe we can get lucky and pick up an inch or two of snow toward NYE as cold front comes through.  Then probably gets colder beginning of January.  If we get any snow during beginning of January period that's just too far to know ATTM.

I believe December finishes normal or -1. I like the look jan 1-20 for some snow

LOL

Yeah well that's a pretty broad window.

[Irish]

Was just gonna come in and predict possible snow from January 1st to March 31st.

[jmanley32]

I'm go say a few chances Jan 1st to Dec 30th 2020 lol

[heehaw453]

I'm not sure if Skins meant 1-20 or 1-2.  But either way it's reasonable if you think about it.  I recall not getting but a 1/4" from end of November last year until about 1/20/19 (almost 2 months) or so.  There can be very long stretches where we are devoid of snow especially at the coast.

[skinsfan1177]

I'm not sure if Skins meant 1-20 or 1-2.  But either way it's reasonable if you think about it.  I recall not getting but a 1/4" from end of November last year until about 1/20/19 (almost 2 months) or so.  There can be very long stretches where we are devoid of snow especially at the coast.

Right

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I'm not sure if Skins meant 1-20 or 1-2.  But either way it's reasonable if you think about it.  I recall not getting but a 1/4" from end of November last year until about 1/20/19 (almost 2 months) or so.  There can be very long stretches where we are devoid of snow especially at the coast.

January 1 to 20th is on average not devoid of snow for most on this forum, even NYC the dreaded heat Island averages 9 inches of snow in January. Pick any 3 week period from late December through Late February and most here have a decent shot at having some snow. I realize the NJ coast is the worst spot for snow on this forum but that's' a small area of a much larger forum. That's why IMO general statements like that are pretty meaningless.

With all that said I too believe Jan 1 through Jan 20 will be a good shot at some snow, and probably several shots at it, but it's more based on past history and for now what looks like somewhat of a change to more normal temps in the beginning of the month, and some teleconnections that may be favorable for us during that period, (at least for now but subject to change of course as ALL long range forecast are. I just don't think general statements two weeks ahead of time for a three week period most of which is a month away, is no more than just a basic guess.

But hey that's me, others may find it helpful, to me I take that with a grain of salt.

[heehaw453]

I'm not sure if Skins meant 1-20 or 1-2.  But either way it's reasonable if you think about it.  I recall not getting but a 1/4" from end of November last year until about 1/20/19 (almost 2 months) or so.  There can be very long stretches where we are devoid of snow especially at the coast.

January 1 to 20th is on average not devoid of snow for most on this forum, even NYC the dreaded heat Island averages 9 inches of snow in January. Pick any 3 week period from late December through Late February and most here have a decent shot at having some snow. I realize the NJ coast is the worst spot for snow on this forum but that's' a small area of a much larger forum. That's why IMO general statements like that are pretty meaningless.

With all that said I too believe Jan 1 through Jan 20 will be a good shot at some snow, and probably several shots at it, but it's more based on past history and for now what looks like somewhat of a change to more normal temps in the beginning of the month, and some teleconnections that may be favorable for us during that period, (at least for now but subject to change of course as ALL long range forecast are. I just don't think general statements two weeks ahead of time for a three week period most of which is a month away, is no more than just a basic guess.

But hey that's me, others may find it helpful, to me I take that with a grain of salt.

I hear ya. I guess I was equating Skins statement to trying to determine weather patterns in the future. I could see model projections 2 weeks out with high amplitude phase 7 MJO, -NAO, Pacific ridging, etc and I would have as much confidence in that as i would from any general statement. But the LR thread should be about learning and backing up viewpoints with some science, maybe Skins statement was best in Banter thread.

[Frank_Wx]

Not anything particularly interesting to talk about until we get to New Years. By then snow chances should return as the pattern reloads because of some of the things I spoke about in my post from earlier this week. See page before.

What’s crazy is how strong the Strat PV is this year compared to last year. We may not see an official SSWE until late January or early February. Unfortunate to see the next 10 to 14 days not delivering much but our fortune should turn at some point in January. Although New Years time frame looks interesting something tells me that’s too early. While snow chances exist, the best opportunities may not come until the 2nd or latter half of January.

[heehaw453]

I'm amazed how consistently models are with showing bupkis wrt snowfall around here for the next 10-15 days. There's just been no kind of deviation from that for past 4 days.

Very rarely do i see that kind of consistency from the models. Let's hope things start moving in the better direction between XMas and NYE.

[Dunnzoo]

I'm amazed how consistently models are with showing bupkis wrt snowfall around here for the next 10-15 days.  There's just been no kind of deviation from that for past 4 days.  

Very rarely do i see that kind of consistency from the models.  Let's hope things start moving in the better direction between XMas and NYE.

Sure is wet enough, but missing the cold. Cold seems to move in after precip moves out at least for the next couple of weeks. Well, at least we can enjoy the holidays and not be distracted with storm tracking!

[amugs]

Friggin PV setting up show over Alaska, not a good sign for us here on the EC or the CONUS for that matter. No one saw this coming. Another curve ball to the pattern. We'll see how this plays out over the next few days but the promising pattern has once again been de railed for a bit. Here will come the Warmicists and Cliff Divers.
See y'all later

[nutleyblizzard]

Friggin LV setting up show over Alaska, not a good sign for us here on the EC or the CONUS for that matter. No one saw this coming. Another curve ball to the pattern. We'll see how this plays out over the next few days but the promising pattern has once again been de railed for a bit. Here will come the Warmicists and Cliff Divers.
See y'all later

Yep I hear ya mugs. My brother in law is a warmicist himself. We have had many discussions over the years back in forth regarding global warming and how it affects the winter. He tries to convince me that we are entering a point of no return where well below snowfall will be the new norm for winters going forward. He basically says everyone on this board are snow weenies and that we look for the one model run that shows what we want to see. Ridiculous. I try to argue back that winters varies from year to year... dependent upon of course with ENSO and other weather parameters. I'm sure with this warm spell we're experiencing currently, this discussion will come up again today. Oh the humanity.

[Grselig]

Friggin LV setting up show over Alaska, not a good sign for us here on the EC or the CONUS for that matter. No one saw this coming. Another curve ball to the pattern. We'll see how this plays out over the next few days but the promising pattern has once again been de railed for a bit. Here will come the Warmicists and Cliff Divers.
See y'all later

Yep I hear ya mugs. My brother in law is a warmicist himself. We have had many discussions over the years back in forth regarding global warming and how it affects the winter. He tries to convince me that we are entering a point of no return where well below snowfall will be the new norm for winters going forward. He basically says everyone on this board are snow weenies and that we look for the one model run that shows what we want to see. Ridiculous. I try to argue back that winters varies from year to year... dependent upon of course with ENSO and other weather parameters. I'm sure with this warm spell we're experiencing currently, this discussion will come up again today. Oh the humanity.

I thought I read global warming will actually result in more snow for us in our lifetimes. Not less.

[billg315]

Friggin LV setting up show over Alaska, not a good sign for us here on the EC or the CONUS for that matter. No one saw this coming. Another curve ball to the pattern. We'll see how this plays out over the next few days but the promising pattern has once again been de railed for a bit. Here will come the Warmicists and Cliff Divers.
See y'all later

Yep I hear ya mugs. My brother in law is a warmicist himself. We have had many discussions over the years back in forth regarding global warming and how it affects the winter. He tries to convince me that we are entering a point of no return where well below snowfall will be the new norm for winters going forward. He basically says everyone on this board are snow weenies and that we look for the one model run that shows what we want to see. Ridiculous. I try to argue back that winters varies from year to year... dependent upon of course with ENSO and other weather parameters. I'm sure with this warm spell we're experiencing currently, this discussion will come up again today. Oh the humanity.

I thought I read global warming will actually result in more snow for us in our lifetimes.  Not less.  

Global warming will result in more snow; or less snow; whichever supports their theory at that particular moment, in that particular place. I’ve heard proponents make both arguments depending on whether they were speaking during a snowy winter or mild winter - in their personal locale. Anyway, if this discussion is going to continue as a climate change discussion (which is exceedingly complex and contentious) it probably should move to banter so we can keep this thread for the more immediate “long”range as opposed to the 100-year long range.

[nutleyblizzard]

12z GFS looks great. Cold and stormy. Cheer up mugs.

[dkodgis]

What is long about the long range is there is still plenty of ice in my driveway and on my deck. Even the nice day yesterday has not gotten rid of what I call very stubborn ice. All I want for Xmas is some rain later this week to wash the ice away. However, I do see the first ten days of January look good for stormy, stormy weather. At least unsettled.

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