Long Range Thread 19.0

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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Dec 26, 2019 8:28 am

So what's gonna mess up the storm signal on gfs around Jan 7th? This is the only thing I see in the next 16 days. It stinks but it is what tis I guess. Hope all had a nice holiday. All I care about is I'm on break till Jan 6th.
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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Dec 26, 2019 6:01 pm

Polar vortex moving out of Alaska and then next week makes a move towards Baffin Island, Canada and then Greenland.  I don't see much Atlantic blocking with that location as heights would be lower than higher.

The other issue is the Pacific has not been too friendly for us wrt to snow.  It's a big reason why most of us got a lot less snow last year than we were hoping for.  

My guess is for the first week of January we'll need to get lucky to get snow.  Shots of cold air timed with a relaxing Pacific which enables more eastern based troughs.  Maybe get a spoke of energy coming around the base coupled with cold shot of air and then get something.  

After that it's hard to say if we get more favorable patterns as I'm not a big believer in predicting that far out.

It won't take much to beat last January's snow output (CPK 1.1"), so hopefully we get it done early in the month.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Dec 26, 2019 7:14 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Some noteworthy facts about the long range right now:

1. I recall reading some winter outlooks many suspected ENSO to be Modoki style El Nino. However, the greatest activity has been in the western and eastern sections of the equatorial Pacific. The region between the dateline and 120W has been devoid of convection.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 R.global.anom.30.5S-5N

2. Although the long range thru Christmas looks bleak the warm pool in the northern Pacific remains. This tells me regardless what happens the rest of this month, we should see a re-load of the trough settling over the eastern U.S. after the New Year.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

3. This is supported by the tropical forcing that is forecasted to occur on Christmas. It's possible we see a re-load prior to the New Year or right around it.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 U.anom.30.5S-5N

4. The MJO is also seeing this wave - showing it exiting the COD into phase 7 end of month

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member

5. The Stratosphere will undergo major changes, possibly resulting in a Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Image.png.04cc43c7611419e865a4acfc63409f1a

I am more confident in the tropical forcing / Pacific warm pool bringing back the winter pattern for eastern CONUS than I am for any SSWE at the moment. Until then, do not expect much activity.

I made this post a week or so before Christmas. There are some things that have changed since then that need to be addressed. Notice how we are seeing convection over the Dateline. At the time I felt this could turn our pattern around once we get into the new year. But after looking at the VP 200mb anomaly maps it’s clear these RMM plots of the MJO are chasing convection not associated with a true Kelvin/MJO wave. Therefore, it will not lead to any substantial change in the pattern although there should be a period of below normal temps after January 4th or so. Likely to be short lived.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 09962E4E-9C16-4241-980F-1A096C82E5F9.png.5856be6cc2873d136e3672d117195a9c

Instead, the IOD, Indian Ocean Dipole, is negative and it’s prompting the MJO to be in more of a 4-5 like phase. Hopefully we get the -IOD pattern to break around the 2nd week of January. We need real tropical forcing to turn the pattern around mid to late month. We can’t rely on the Stratosphere right now as the PV is very strong at this moment. It does not show much sign of weakening. Could be seeing a record +AO setting up in early January.


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Post by docstox12 on Fri Dec 27, 2019 6:36 am

Yet another snowstorm in the Central and North Central CONUS.That pattern has been set in stone since the first week of November.Until that pattern breaks, it's rain or snow to slop to rain around here.
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Post by Math23x7 on Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:36 pm

Frank, I agree with what you said above.

Here is the ++AO you mentioned:

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 12271910

Also, the PNA looks to go sharply negative, much like it was a good chunk of last winter.  The NAO and EPO aren't really helpful either:

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 12271911

Finally, here is the MJO from NCEP, ECMWF, and EMON  Notice how they take it into Phases 4/5 and just have it sit there for a while, perhaps for much of January.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 12271913

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 12271914

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 12271915

The pattern reminds me so much of the 2007-08 winter.  For those who don't remember, there were some minor snow events in NYC early to mid December.  After 12/16/07, there would not be any measurable snow in NYC until 2/12/08.  Also, the only noteworthy snow event was 2/22/08 when 6" fell from a snow to sleet to rain event.

Here is the 500 mb anomaly map from 12/19/07 to 2/9/08.  Eerily similar to the pattern we are in:

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Esrl2010

It looks like we are going to be in this pattern for quite awhile.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Dec 27, 2019 1:14 pm

Doc and Mikey, I agree with your sentiments that the base state pattern has been established since November and we’re in a bad cycle for us. It will take a high magnitude event to break this cycle.

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Post by docstox12 on Fri Dec 27, 2019 2:31 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Doc and Mikey, I agree with your sentiments that the base state pattern has been established since November and we’re in a bad cycle for us. It will take a high magnitude event to break this cycle.

Frank, it is what it is.We have a lot of snow time left so there is always a chance for what you say to occur.Glass half full always!!!
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Post by heehaw453 on Fri Dec 27, 2019 3:52 pm

Every winter that I can remember goes through some kind of bad stretch.  The good ones obviously mute that quickly whereas the bad ones don't.

December had several 50/50 blocks and some short term NAO-, so Atlantic wasn't the worst I've ever seen.  Some cashed in nicely on this board in terms of snow and others are for December somewhat close to averages, and of course some not as well.  In regards to temperatures, not torch month by any stretch even though it maybe .5-1 AN when all is said and done.

I think we can all agree the next 7 days is shot, but look towards what happens after that.  I'm looking at the first milestone as January 5-6ish.  

See a short and muted cold spell and something like shown in the medium term (within 5-7 days) as we approach January 6 and I would say this pattern has some real staying power.  But I trust no teleconnection guidance past 10 days just as I didn't last year when guidance was showing winter weather enthusiasts dreams 10+ days out of course.  


The SE ridge can be just as bad as the Pacific troughs for causing storms to cut to our west.  That would be bad news if it persists.
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Post by algae888 on Fri Dec 27, 2019 4:03 pm

Yes the next week is shot however D 9 through 12 show some promise as a piece of the portal Vortex over Alaska will drift Southeast across the us and our area. What happens after that is going to depend on the mjo. If you've been following the rmm forecast it has been adjusting to the colder phases every day for the last week and now taking it into 8 and 1 before the long-range stuff gets it into the warm phases. A week ago the plots had it going through 7 before reversing into 5 so that's a big adjustment. maybe somebody has the 7-Day old rmm plots and can post it on here. Warm Neutral / week Nino would argue for it to go to the cold of phases if that happens look for adjustments on the models post 12 days to a colder pattern we shall see
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Post by dkodgis on Sat Dec 28, 2019 8:16 am

It looks like Sun even and most of Monday to be quite rainy. I got my wish. A half inch will do but it looks like a couple of inches.
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Post by dkodgis on Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:20 pm

And up here the low is 33 for Sunday evening. Some icing mentioned in the forecast.
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Post by amugs on Sun Dec 29, 2019 1:44 am

Longer write up but lots of good signs for the flip on both GEFS and EPS alongbwith CMC, BOMM and GFS deterministic models tjis is a very good look. Now will it come to fruition you ask, 10 days out I know but we see the progression from many regions in the Noryjern Hemisphere.
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Img_2015

The 7-9th time frame is looking like an east coast storm and reason beingbwe have Jupiter coming into equatorial alignment with earth. Last three times this occurred we had 1977 Feb storm, 1983 blizzard, 1994 mlk storm. Pretty good analog storms. Remains tonbe seen.

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Post by heehaw453 on Sun Dec 29, 2019 8:00 am

You got the look to quote Prince.  All too far of course to take too seriously, but it's encouraging to see nonetheless the PAC give us more love.  No blocking at this range shown to be noted.  Let's hope this window can be fruitful for us.  The sooner the better.

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Post by amugs on Sun Dec 29, 2019 10:30 am

Okay here goes my post after a holiday break which I all hope you have enjoyed!
This spell of mild conditions will be with us overall for another weekish.
What we are seeing models starting to pick up on are a few things and I do differ from Frank on this a bit for winter weather withing the 1st 10 days of Jan.(cause I am the ultimate winter weather weenie and try my best to have the season be the season = winter) after looking at trends the past three days.
We have a for one some planetary alignment of the big boy Jupiter coming into earth perigee within 5 degrees of our equator during the 7-9th time frame and it is a high energy cycle of the sun - yuo know what gives us life. There is an above average chance of an east coast storm during this time frame +/- 1 day. JMAN don't get your panties all twisted here but will it -  run the apps, ride the coast, be benchmark storm or OTS will remain to be seen but there is the good possibility of one. Some analog years when this happened and not all are the same from my source - 1977 Feb storm,  1994 MLK storm and a few other which no one here will know one in the late 1940's, and 2 oterhs in the 1800's that CP may recall LOL!!

We have what Anthony Masiello is calling an Ohkostok LP system that will help pump the GOA trough and push the EPO Negative. We also have a trough that will be moving to teh east of HI. One thing I have learned over these last 10 years from wx boards and following JB;
1. Is that when you get an LP to the east of HI it will do a cascading affect downstream on teh weather pattern - one pump the trough in or near the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) and make the EPO (East Pacific Oscillation) go Negative (N). The further east this LP in the GOA gets the better for cold air dislodge into the East Coast and storm to follow this flow.
2. Now, this LP East of HI will then also aid in pumping the West Coast Ridge or PNA to go positive. The GOA position will also aid in this as well. Too far off the WC and not to good - best position is over the Rockies one which runs North to South through Idaho. This helps steer the storm in a roller coaster fashion up the coast.
3. Lastly it could then pump the AO and NAO regions over the top (Arctic region) as well.

So what are we seeing? WE are seeing this LP system and a wave train setting up from the Kamtchaka Pennisula in Russia just sending LP after LP into the GOA - look at all those L on the map in alignment for GOA!
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Gfs_z500_mslp_npac_25

Cold Air Source for this time frame is from Alaska which has seen Little Ice Age temps as I write and will !!
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Gfs_T2m_nhem_25

The EPO forecasts are starting to catch on
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Ecmwf_ensemble_nhem_avg_epo_box_7577600
SOME NAO hope
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Gfs-ensemble-all-avg-nao-box-7599200.png.1b6922321053ccd27cd89403374f8b1f

MJO - from what I have read these two have done best with the forecasting of the MJO as of this month
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_full

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 CFSO_phase_full

Here is a map of the progression from the EPS
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_8

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_10

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11

You can see the blue blob east of HI
You can see the orangy colors in the GOA
You can see the trough build in the east

From JB on Wx Bell - look at the convection showing up over phasese 8/1 of the MJO
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Global_1(1)
Look at the green areas of each phase of the MJO
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Mjo(5)

Cold phases are 8,1,2 for us

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 MJO_phases

But dont like this waters have warmed tremendously over NW Aussie land - WTH??
These indicates phases 3&4 + warmth arggh if teh convection flares up and the MJO wave is strong in this region
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1
We'd need a cancelling wave in regions 8 to 2 to help or a strong GOA LP (Negative EPO of 2-3 standard deviations - moderate strength) to overtake this tropical convection which is possible.

So the second week of Jan looks to be more winter like and we'll go from there.

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Dec 29, 2019 11:06 am

@amugs wrote:Okay here derate strength) to overtake this tropical convection which is possible.

So the second week of Jan looks to be more winter like and we'll go from there.

thank you Mugs!!
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Post by amugs on Sun Dec 29, 2019 2:13 pm

12 Z GFS must have heard me LOL!! If this correct of course but shows the idea of the pattern flip "temporarily" (edit)
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Gfs_z510


Last edited by amugs on Mon Dec 30, 2019 10:01 am; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Radz on Sun Dec 29, 2019 4:42 pm

I think this was posted before, but it has been updated recently, DT's snowstorm page:
https://www.wxrisk.com/the-wxrisk-com-snowstorm-page/?fbclid=IwAR0Fk7qYPX97leiyRNPvU4BVtqtD64sDKFYGeBknxF2jLQbx9O0t0gzuXOM
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Post by amugs on Mon Dec 30, 2019 10:11 am

Here is the window of opportunity as it seems now and has been correcting for about 5 days now.
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom_5day-8528000-1.png.e48082c005b779172f2a0e95664b2dce

After this we need something to happen to keep the MJO at bay as I said yesterday in showing the abnormal warm waters off the NE coast of Aussie land that will fire up convection and spike the MJO wave in the death phases of 4&5 possibly. Very ugly look here arghhh!!

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 ECMF_phase_51m_full

EVEN the CFSv2 has it but going around the horn a bit
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 CFSO_phase_full

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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Dec 30, 2019 11:33 am

Not a whole lot of encouraging sings on guidance.  As last year the Pacific ridging is not ideal for us so far. Latitudes like NNE can tolerate this kind of situation and still get good snows as what occurred last year, but under 43N not so much.

Western ridge continues to be way off the western coast in a spot which keeps troughs on the west coast and not in the eastern part of the country.  This allows for warmer air to infiltrate from south instead of cold air from north.  Moreover, the Atlantic continues to show no sign of any high latitude blocking which w/out blocking allow storms to easily cut to our west promoting warmer solutions. Moreover, the concern expressed by many is these western based ridges can be stubborn due to Pacific water temperature anomalies that are slow to move.

I will wait another week to see how guidance changes before I get too influenced by what I'm seeing now, but cannot ignore consistency of the vast majority of guidance ATTM

On a positive note, it is noted that most of our snows these past 10 years do occur more on the back half of the winter, e.g. late January - mid March. So there's that...

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Eps10

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:00 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:Not a whole lot of encouraging sings on guidance.  As last year the Pacific ridging is not ideal for us so far.  Latitudes like NNE can tolerate this kind of situation and still get good snows as what occurred last year, but under 43N not so much.

Western ridge continues to be way off the western coast in a spot which keeps troughs on the west coast and not in the eastern part of the country.  This allows for warmer air to infiltrate from south instead of cold air from north.  Moreover, the Atlantic continues to show no sign of any high latitude blocking which w/out blocking allow storms to easily cut to our west promoting warmer solutions. Moreover, the concern expressed by many is these western based ridges can be stubborn due to Pacific water temperature anomalies that are slow to move.

I will wait another week to see how guidance changes before I get too influenced by what I'm seeing now, but cannot ignore consistency of the vast majority of guidance ATTM

On a positive note, it is noted that most of our snows these past 10 years do occur more on the back half of the winter, e.g. late January - mid March.  So there's that...

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Eps10

grey depressing day, and depressing news...hope our luck changes!!!
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Post by docstox12 on Mon Dec 30, 2019 12:23 pm

Seems like things don't get into gear until the end of January the way things are going.As heehaw said , a back end winter we hope.Mild and rainy New Years coming up.
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Dec 30, 2019 2:39 pm

I got this from another board.  This is showing the reliability of model ensembles predicting weather patterns at the mid levels (about 5000 feet above surface).

Trust guidance within 72 hours for the most part, at 5 days it's a bit better than 50/50, at 1 week less than 50/50 at 10 days plus it's dog poop (25% reliable, but definitely trended more reliable over last 10 years).

Models have come a long way over the past 30 years.  

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Weathe10

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Post by HectorO on Mon Dec 30, 2019 2:59 pm

@docstox12 wrote:Seems like things don't get into gear until the end of January the way things are going.As heehaw said , a back end winter we hope.Mild and rainy New Years coming up.

If that's the case, screw it lol. Can't stand when winter is backed up that late. By then, I'm used to the milder temps and don't feel like feeling a drop in temps again.
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Post by billg315 on Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:01 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:I got this from another board.  This is showing the reliability of model ensembles predicting weather patterns at the mid levels (about 5000 feet above surface).

Trust guidance within 72 hours for the most part, at 5 days it's a bit better than 50/50, at 1 week less than 50/50 at 10 days plus it's dog poop (25% reliable, but definitely trended more reliable over last 10 years).

Models have come a long way over the past 30 years.  

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 12 Weathe10

This is a great chart. Definitely shows how much better modeling has got in the 3-5 day range (from guess-work 25 years ago to fairly reliable now). But also highlights what I’ve always believed: beyond 5 days there is far too much uncertainty/unreliability to put all your eggs in any long-range basket. The good news for the more cynical folks in here is this: If you truly believe the long-range forecasts are often wrong, you should be heartened that they don’t look great right now, because if they’re wrong we might actually do ok with cold and snow by mid-to- late month. Right? Laughing
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Post by docstox12 on Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:35 pm

@HectorO wrote:
@docstox12 wrote:Seems like things don't get into gear until the end of January the way things are going.As heehaw said , a back end winter we hope.Mild and rainy New Years coming up.

If that's the case, screw it lol. Can't stand when winter is backed up that late. By then, I'm used to the milder temps and don't feel like feeling a drop in temps again.

That's my preference as well, having the coldest and snowiest period from early December to early February.The winter of 1960-1961 fit that bill perfectly.A huge snowstorm of 20+ inches Dec. 11-12, 12+ inches the day before JFK's Inauguration in mid January 1961, followed by 15 days of sub 32 degree cold topped by the 20+ inch snowstorm of Feb. 3 and 4 1961.Milder weather followed that and was welcomed after all that!
We have to work with what we have now and it doesn't look good for snow for a while.
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