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Long Range Thread 19.0

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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by billg315 Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:01 pm

heehaw453 wrote:I got this from another board.  This is showing the reliability of model ensembles predicting weather patterns at the mid levels (about 5000 feet above surface).

Trust guidance within 72 hours for the most part, at 5 days it's a bit better than 50/50, at 1 week less than 50/50 at 10 days plus it's dog poop (25% reliable, but definitely trended more reliable over last 10 years).

Models have come a long way over the past 30 years.  

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Weathe10

This is a great chart. Definitely shows how much better modeling has got in the 3-5 day range (from guess-work 25 years ago to fairly reliable now). But also highlights what I’ve always believed: beyond 5 days there is far too much uncertainty/unreliability to put all your eggs in any long-range basket. The good news for the more cynical folks in here is this: If you truly believe the long-range forecasts are often wrong, you should be heartened that they don’t look great right now, because if they’re wrong we might actually do ok with cold and snow by mid-to- late month. Right? Laughing

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Post by docstox12 Mon Dec 30, 2019 3:35 pm

HectorO wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Seems like things don't get into gear until the end of January the way things are going.As heehaw said , a back end winter we hope.Mild and rainy New Years coming up.

If that's the case, screw it lol. Can't stand when winter is backed up that late. By then, I'm used to the milder temps and don't feel like feeling a drop in temps again.

That's my preference as well, having the coldest and snowiest period from early December to early February.The winter of 1960-1961 fit that bill perfectly.A huge snowstorm of 20+ inches Dec. 11-12, 12+ inches the day before JFK's Inauguration in mid January 1961, followed by 15 days of sub 32 degree cold topped by the 20+ inch snowstorm of Feb. 3 and 4 1961.Milder weather followed that and was welcomed after all that!
We have to work with what we have now and it doesn't look good for snow for a while.

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Post by amugs Mon Dec 30, 2019 5:43 pm

January looks to shake out as alluded to in mynposts
1st 6 days AN
6-10thish period window of cold and snow opportunity
10-20thish AN
20thish pattern starts to reload
MJO looks to run the course from 4 and 5 to 8 and 1 then back to COD and warmer phases then back to colder phases
That friggin anamolous warm waters NW of Aussie land is causing issues flaring up convection in the warmer phases.
Looks like a back loaded winter again is on the table, sorry to those who expressed I'll feelings towards it. What can you do. Watch us have a banger 6-8;nweek stretch from late Jan through Mid March.
One thing that has happened with the MJO phases in warm 3,4,5 is this warm air Rose's and attacks the PV which is set up over Alaska which may cause a weakening and split possibly but weakening for sure.
Wish winter went hard from mid Dec through early Feb with a thaw or two but what we want and what happens are 2 different things. Embrace it for you're not gonna change it!!

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Post by heehaw453 Mon Dec 30, 2019 6:17 pm

WRT to 1-6/1-9 threat window.  If we can get the Pacific to play nice like this then we have something.  If this is false, then we wait.  Models have been hinting at this look on and off.  We should know in a few days if this has legs or not.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Height13

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Post by amugs Wed Jan 01, 2020 2:00 am

Happy New Tear and EURO is happy too!!
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Img_2047

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:31 am

Rapidly strengthening low pressure makes sense with 500mb like this.  

This trough digs quite nicely and is already neutral tilt.  I also think the upper level low (ULL) is in a good position and would swing well south of the area.  You normally see your snow to the north of the ULL as it swings through.  The Atlantic ridge also gets demolished as the storm swings through which i think favors this more southerly track.  

What's one caveat here?  The antecedent air mass is warm.  We'd need to see this storm explode and be far enough south/east for a shot at good snows.  A rapidly developing storm can cool the column rapidly provided you are on the good quadrant.

Euro has been trending that ULL further south consistently and stronger as it hits the coast.  Something to keep an eye on especially for I-78 N. I'll be watching for more Euro trending and other guidance showing this track.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Euroul10

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Euroul11

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Post by dsix85 Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:45 am

What’s the timing for this event? Sunday into Monday?

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:20 pm

dsix85 wrote:What’s the timing for this event? Sunday into Monday?

Sunday evening/night would most likely be the window ATTM. Getting any accumulating snow from this is a big IF.

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Post by heehaw453 Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:28 pm

A couple of events between 1/6 - 1/8 are still on the table.

The issue with the first one IMO is the initial warmth (at the surface and aloft), and how far south and quickly the coastal can develop. There are indications of rapid development and a slow movement, but it may be too far north latitude for most except CNE/NNE.

The second on as expected in this time frame guidance has not a good handle on. You've got suppressed solutions all the way to cutters.

Hopefully one of these storms can give some of us a few inches of snow.

Not overly thrilled with either scenario, but it's all we got now.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:45 am

I saw the Euro and now the GFS has finally come to agreement about surface low pressure further south.  My guess is it exits somewhere along the Delmarva.  The ULL will be well south of our area too.

Neutral trough as the ULL hit the coast.  These are all positive things for snow.  

The antecedent air mass is not a good one, however and that's a large weighted negative factor.  In order to get 4"+ snows from this we are going to need the low to bomb out and move towards the benchmark (BM 40N/70W).  Something like 998mb as it exits the coast and getting down to 985mb as it gets toward the BM.  That would crash the column all the way to the surface and produce heavy snow that accumulates.  Get the trough to go more negative and then that snow gets pushed further inland.

I would put that at the low end of possibility for now and expect modest accumulations.  LI probably has best chance for a several inches ATTM.

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Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:23 am

Fwiw and still not known how this plays out. 06Z Euro was a bomb. 982mb just inside BM. Get a negative tilt on trough and it’d be a big deal in a lot of areas.

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Post by sroc4 Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:25 am

heehaw453 wrote:I saw the Euro and now the GFS has finally come to agreement about surface low pressure further south.  My guess is it exits somewhere along the Delmarva.  The ULL will be well south of our area too.

Neutral trough as the ULL hit the coast.  These are all positive things for snow.  

The antecedent air mass is not a good one, however and that's a large weighted negative factor.  In order to get 4"+ snows from this we are going to need the low to bomb out and move towards the benchmark (BM 40N/70W).  Something like 998mb as it exits the coast and getting down to 985mb as it gets toward the BM.  That would crash the column all the way to the surface and produce heavy snow that accumulates.  Get the trough to go more negative and then that snow gets pushed further inland.

I would put that at the low end of possibility for now and expect modest accumulations.  LI probably has best chance for a several inches ATTM.

Fantastic analysis!  Since we are only a few days out and there really is t a whole lot else to talk about let’s continue the discussion on this threat to the January obs. and discussion thread.  That northern energy is potent.

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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by heehaw453 Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:22 am

Honestly think the 1/8 threat has a better opportunity to drop a light/moderate amount of snow for most of the area.  

The antecedent airmass is much colder and there is vigorous energy around a digging trough.  The surface low approaches from the south and stays east of us.  

This is much simpler and straight forward way to a snow event here.  Get this to develop sooner as shown in bottom picture and watch how it tilts negative.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 1-810

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 1-8211

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:32 am

Sharp trough being modeled with a better antecedent air mass.

I would set expectations at wet for now along and SE of 95 and better chance of white as you move NW of there. 5 days away too far to know, but do believe this has had the better chance of the two threats.

If we skunked on this, then probably looking at 1/20 before cold air comes back +/- a few days. Normally, i would be hesitant to go that far out, but too much model consensus showing that kind of thing.


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Post by skinsfan1177 Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:37 am

heehaw453 wrote:Sharp trough being modeled with a better antecedent air mass.    

I would set expectations at wet for now along and SE of 95 and better chance of white as you move NW of there.  5 days away too far to know, but do believe this has had the better chance of the two threats.

If we skunked on this, then probably looking at 1/20 before cold air comes back +/- a few days.  Normally, i would be hesitant to go that far out, but too much model consensus showing that kind of thing.

That's no guarantee either 1/20 the ridge means business

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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:48 am

heehaw453 wrote:Honestly think the 1/8 threat has a better opportunity to drop a light/moderate amount of snow for most of the area.  

The antecedent airmass is much colder and there is vigorous energy around a digging trough.  The surface low approaches from the south and stays east of us.  

This is much simpler and straight forward way to a snow event here.  Get this to develop sooner as shown in bottom picture and watch how it tilts negative.  

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 1-810

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 1-8211

Possibly, but timing needs to be precise. +AO/+NAO with a trough crashing into the west coast will make it difficult for a coastal low to deepen off the coast. Most likely a weak wave that won’t generate enough of its own cold air.

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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 03, 2020 11:11 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
heehaw453 wrote:Honestly think the 1/8 threat has a better opportunity to drop a light/moderate amount of snow for most of the area.  

The antecedent airmass is much colder and there is vigorous energy around a digging trough.  The surface low approaches from the south and stays east of us.  

This is much simpler and straight forward way to a snow event here.  Get this to develop sooner as shown in bottom picture and watch how it tilts negative.  

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 1-810

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 1-8211

Possibly, but timing needs to be precise. +AO/+NAO with a trough crashing into the west coast will make it difficult for a coastal low to deepen off the coast. Most likely a weak wave that won’t generate enough of its own cold air.

I agree that surface low is weak until it hits CNE or NNE. Probably starts intensifying in Gulf of Maine. Marginal air mass at best, so not really good chance of much snow accumulations. Same story where at or above 43N is where you need to be to see good snows.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 03, 2020 3:02 pm

Many long range forecasts are gonna basically bust to a point as we enter the warm interlude due to the abnormally warm waters which I would say NO ONE SAW this coming that are NW of Aussie land that is just wrecking havoc on the MJO and pattern. In the late fall it the waters were colder and we weer looking at convection at the warmer waters adn with the blob in the NE PAC looking at 13-14,14-15, 77-78 type winter and even an 09-10.  Now many have called for a back loaded winter and is it possible sure but we need some mechanism to help take over and subdue this warm pool. No it is not caused by the wild fires or CO2 for that matter but by as I have read the Indian Ocean Dipole effect that has been so positive it caused this surge in this region.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Mjo_ss10


Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Nw_aus10

Convection Map
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Global10

One thing we have to hope for is that the convective thunderstorm over this region help cool off these water or a cyclone cause upweling then regions 8, 1,2 may take over hopefully.

MJO going into the Circle of Torch for us Phases 4 and 5
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Diagram_40days_forecast_GEFSBC_member

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 CFSO_phase_full

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 EMON_phase_MANOM_51m_full


Here in lies the problem, does it go around the horn or swing back into phases 4 and 5. If this were to happen then you would chalk this up to a major monkey wrench no one saw (well I think only Isotherm had us warm and very little white)and bust.

Low solar promotes high latitude blocking and it has been like this most of the year and was there in Nov and Dec and has since wanned but should come back and to what extent we'll have to wait and see.
Gosh Darn MOJO is killing us once again!!


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Post by Frank_Wx Fri Jan 03, 2020 5:31 pm

Mugs - I suggest reading up on the Indian Ocean Dipole. I’ve brought it up here but worth reading into more. Right now it’s in an anomalous negative state and no sign of it changing to positive anytime soon.

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Post by amugs Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:06 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Mugs - I suggest reading up on the Indian Ocean Dipole. I’ve brought it up here but worth reading into more. Right now it’s in an anomalous negative state and no sign of it changing to positive anytime soon.

I just re read my post, my mistake on the IO state being pos I meant to say negative.

One aspect that is being shown on all ENS models runs is a Scandanavian Block or an East Based NAO block. This may help the flow.

@Frank, sounds like your done with winter with your post? IO in Nov and first 2/3 of Dec helped promote our pattern. Like to hear what your thoughts are.


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Post by heehaw453 Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:21 pm

I think it's hard to predict MJO in the long range with regard to its amplitude and region. Whether it circles to phase 7 or loops back to 4,5 towards end of January is not really known ATTM. Moreover, the amplitude also has an effect. I would say though that a circle back to 4/5 with a high amplitude towards end of January will make it very difficult to get a back loaded winter especially if PNA continues in the negative.

Like any winter I hope for average snowfall and still do until it's clear it won't.

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 04, 2020 7:52 am

A little light snow possible on Monday as shown by NAM I-78 N. Surface temps would support anything that falls actually sticks. Like a coating kind of thing.

Wednesday could be an 1" if surface temps cooperate a bit more. The mid levels will be plenty cold to support snow. Otherwise, will be white rain.

Let's hope our fortunes turn. Have to get through abysmal stretch.


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Post by amugs Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:34 am

heehaw453 wrote:A little light snow possible on Monday as shown by NAM I-78 N.  Surface temps would support anything that falls actually sticks.  Like a coating kind of thing.

Wednesday could be an 1" if surface temps cooperate a bit more.  The mid levels will be plenty cold to support snow.  Otherwise, will be white rain.

Let's hope our fortunes turn.  Have to get through abysmal stretch.


For CNJ and NYC need teh clipper system Sunday night to dig a bit further south to bring that colder air with it.
I 78/I 80 and about look okay at this point for both events.
GFS for Tuesday event
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 1578430800-ehTf07QW4uA

All Layers are cold this time for snow
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 1578430800-eU8rYhKgfiA
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 1578430800-ZPGYyiG0Xn4
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 1578430800-motJai5w8ts

Need a bit more digging if we can by the trough and things could get very interesting
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Gfs_z500a_us_15

Energy going into the NW pac in this progressive flow is a killer
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Gfs_ref_frzn_us_14


Next Thursday in the heart of the torchy period there is an undercutting cold shot it looks as depitced on both the GFS and Euro. A couple of of shorts days/spring like days for sure but there is very cold air sitting overhead:
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 1579435200-QqQ5fxj7z8g

During Solar Minimum we have wild temperature  swings and extremes with temps and storms.
Good sign here and usually a lag period here of about a month which would get us to the heart and snowiest month for our area - Feb into early March. QBO is moving east due to low solar
From Joe D at wx bell
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Qbo_phase_plot__5_

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Screen_Shot_2019_12_26_at_6_02_30_AM(1)
This will reverse the atmospheric wind flow from west to east and help with our high latitude blocking (EPO, NAO and AO regions) also due to shorter wavelengths.

Lets see what the models start to do after the torchy period next week but lets enjoy this week my winter weenies for we have a couple of wintry opportunities. cheers

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Post by aiannone Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:47 am

NAM looking like it wants to produce for Tuesday Night-Wednesday
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Captur30

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Post by heehaw453 Sat Jan 04, 2020 12:23 pm

I sure want to believe the CMC.  It has been trending a bit colder at surface and mid levels due to a slightly more SE track of the low.  All depends on how cold surface can be.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Cmc10

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:23 pm

Our last 2-3 winters have been dominated by an active IOD, QBO and unfavorable Stratospheric conditions. We're looking at a similar issue again this winter. The warm ocean temps off the coast of Australia is resulting in rising air and convection to appear over phases 4-5-6 of the MJO. Also, the dry conditions over Australia is the main reason they are dealing with devastating bush fires. Meanwhile, the Strat is seeing very cold temps and there is little to suggest it will warm up anytime soon. These are the main reasons why we're in a mild/wet and cold/dry pattern. It will remain this way thru 3 weeks of January with moderate risk it extends into the 4th week.

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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

Post by dkodgis Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:34 pm

If we go another 2-3 winters, then this is starting to become the new reality/weather pattern, yes?
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Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 13 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 19.0

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