Long Range Thread 19.0

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Post by amugs on Sat Nov 09, 2019 9:35 am

Joe D from WxBell

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 Screen_Shot_2019_11_09_at_4_37_44_AM

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Post by amugs on Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:21 pm

A great winter outlook read by a very good LR forecaster Griteater!! What I am pumped about and I have harped on this for a long time now is the solar equation inputted into his forecast which only a few have done. Will be a big player and why?? It is pegged to induce blocking in the arctic as it did in the Antarctic region this past winter in Southern Hemisphere ala Aussie land and NZ. If you paid attention it was a record breaking winter for them in terms of cold n snow. As it was in SA.
https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1193504771375861760?s=19

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Nov 11, 2019 12:56 pm

The MJO wave outlined a few days ago will continue progressing through the western Pacific. Our weather this week will already feel some effects of the anomalous ridging with an arctic blast followed by a weaker blast of cold this weekend.

Next week our weather will moderate a bit to seasonal or slightly milder than normal, but it's possible the pattern is re-loading for another winter blast near Thanksgiving into the last few days of November. An intense trough is poised to develop over the Aleutians this weekend. That will set the stage for possible ridging across the EPO/PNA domains with some models even showing a -NAO developing later this month.

In sum not much to look forward to the next 10 days but the time after that could make things exciting again.

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Post by amugs on Tue Nov 12, 2019 11:11 am

After a Normal regime period with 2 possible Nor's (Nor'easters) before this reloads with a N NAO

Courtesy of Ventrice

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 EJLf0aGW4AA0SaE?format=png&name=900x900

Courtesy of Cohen
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 EJLVMRGXkAApDZh?format=png&name=small

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Nov 13, 2019 7:01 am

Math23x7 wrote:11/4/19 0Z ECMWF OP hr 99; 11/7/19 10 PM EST, NY State.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 Ecmwf110

Interesting....

Just catching up on the last 6 months.

Mike from Albany? This should make for some interesting observations. I was just in Lenox Mass last weekend, a mere stones throw from your new residence. Are you in the city of Albany or one of the surrounding towns. What is the elevation where you are?
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Post by amugs on Wed Nov 13, 2019 1:17 pm

GEFS showing the goods here for a NAO block around Turkey week

https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1194677859949957121?s=20

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Nov 13, 2019 2:56 pm

Hasn’t it been like eight years since we’ve had a sustained negative NAO in December? The timing would be great. Nothing like a good stormy wintry pattern for Turkey week to get into the holiday mood.
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Post by amugs on Thu Nov 14, 2019 10:55 pm

There is a quasi semi permanent pattern setting up at the 500mb level that looks to have been setting up since Halloween as we saw the ENS pushing, well the GEFS. Some may say what but if you look at the past 3 weeks now we are seeing this pattern evolve. Can you get a warm up absolutely, a torch not likely IMO. The SE ridge has been taking a beating with the coastal storms and cold air/fronts having an upwelling/cooling effect.
Maps did not show up so here are these Steady Decline
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 Catlssta

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 Cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_atl_1

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 Natlssta

There is a correlation from what Joe D at Wxbell is working on between the SH (Southern Hemisphere)Polar Vortex variations to the NH Polar Vortex variations and displacements. We have see two such perturbations, one we are coming out of, if this were a month or 7 weeks from now with this air mass was be crying it would be so cold, anyway we have so many factors in our favor:

+ Indian Ocean Dipole which is to cause a Postive EAMT - East Asian mountain torque whi h is to attack the PV, ripple the jet and pac jet and help.pump the EPO Negative

Modoki Weak El Nino which should help force the MJO into the favorable phases 8,1,2 and force the upward motion in the dateline region. Tjis will help promote the EPO and the ridge on the west coast thus a positive PNA.
This will also help the STJ sub tropical jet to be active and feed our storms
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 Cdas-sflux_sst_global_1 Coldw aters off SA continent and warmers as yuo reach teh dateline region at 180*


Volcanic Activity tjis has been very active and we have had 9 VEI 3 volcanic explosions and 2 VEI 4/5 explosions. These have occurred over the last 9 months thus spew vast amounts of aerosols, dust, particles into the stratosphere  hence the gorgeous dusk twilight skies of purples and pinks from the arctic to the tropics s. That is a direct result of these eruptions.

The very cold thermosphere, coldest since NASA has been keeping records. It affects remains to be seen 2009 was the last time it was this low.
Thermosphere Climate Index
today: 3.80x1010 W Cold
Max: 49.4x1010 W Hot (10/1957)
Min: 2.05x1010 W Cold (02/2009)

Warm blob in the NE PAC means a vortwx will form and strengthen this winter thus promoting a N EPO which will drive cold air into the Eastern  and Central Regions of USA.
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

Warmish Atlantic overall to help fuel our storms.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 Cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1
Low solar, helps promote a N NAO as the QBO winds re dws ending into the N phase.
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 2 days
2019 total: 238 days (75%)
2018 total: 221 days (61%)
2017 total: 104 days (28%)
2016 total: 32 days (9%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
2008 total: 268 days (73%)
2007 total: 152 days (42%)
2006 total: 70 days (19%)

Low sea ice in the Barents Sea region that will help promote a N AO and NAO at times
.
Lastly the tremendous snow extent over the NH is off the charts which will have an albedo effect and will is forming a feedback cycle as we are seeing and the extent of the snow should cover bast majorities of NA by the end of the month with some regions having feet of snow coverage. This will help our cold air source region for air not to modify but actually cool down as it makes its trek to us over this snowpack terrain.
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 Cursnow

And by the end of the month this will grow and deepen
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 Cursnow_usa

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 Gfs_asnow_us_64

I really like what we are seeing in form of the variables for this winter

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Post by amugs on Fri Nov 15, 2019 1:28 pm

Here comes the block over the top - Scandinavian Block - all hail the Norsemen. This then transfer or comes into Greenland and look at the trough in the East and the Ridge over British Columbia - very good synoptic set up here.
Compliments of Superstorm from 33&rain site
Mean look
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 M500za_6-10_bg.png.30fa78bdda15903a8e484b0d2bafeccd

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 M500za_11-15_bg.png.013434f3c798d4bc0c498cfb391300dd

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Post by Math23x7 on Fri Nov 15, 2019 11:42 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Just catching up on the last 6 months.

Mike from Albany? This should make for some interesting observations. I was just in Lenox Mass last weekend, a mere stones throw from your new residence. Are you in the city of Albany or one of the surrounding towns. What is the elevation where you are?

Hi CP. Yes, I am in the Albany region now. More specifically though, I am in Colonie and at 300 feet for elevation. Areas a few miles to my west as well as areas about a mile across the Hudson are much higher elevation wise. So there will be instances where it is raining where I live but snowing in those areas.

Now, while Albany does have typically do better snow wise than NYC, I am concerned about the I-95 crushers that'll screw me over. Albany has been keeping weather records since 1884. In the 135 snow seasons, only 9 times has NYC out-snowed Albany. Three of those nine though happened in the past 15 years: 2005-06, 2009-10, and 2015-16. 2005-06 had the February 11-12, 2006 Roidzilla for I-95. 2009-10 had virtually everything suppressed. 2015-16 had the January 23, 2016 snow event which gave 27.5" to NYC but 0" for Albany.

Last Tuesday, I had my first accumulations. It was actually freezing rain for a couple of hours before changing over to a coating of snow by daybreak. Since I drive to work 6 miles away, the struggle was scraping the ice off the car. Since I never really had to drive much in the snow in NYC (I took public transportation to work beforehand), it was something to be picked up on.

Anyway, this being the long range thread, it does look like the next couple of weeks look to be on the cold side overall. It wouldn't shock me if this ends up becoming the coldest November in decades around these parts.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:10 am

Thanks for posting updates Mugs. Beginning next week through the end of the month there looks to be multiple chances for our first accumulating snow. The MJO wave I've talked about in my last few posts is now crossing the Dateline, leading me to believe some of the warmer than normal SSTA's along the equatorial Pacific is causing enough instability to keep these waves long-lived. This in part is due to the Nino-like conditions.

The result looks like a very anomalous ridge off the west coast. We need to watch if that ridge axis is still too far west. That would risk storms tracking along the coast rather than off the coast. However, the -NAO blocking Mugs posted could help suppress some of that. The models are going back and forth on the strength of the -NAO but it does seem likely we'll see a ridge pressing down from Greenland.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 EJgCu7zWwAEYF8w?format=jpg&name=900x900


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Post by hyde345 on Sat Nov 16, 2019 11:55 am

Math23x7 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:

Just catching up on the last 6 months.

Mike from Albany? This should make for some interesting observations. I was just in Lenox Mass last weekend, a mere stones throw from your new residence. Are you in the city of Albany or one of the surrounding towns. What is the elevation where you are?

Hi CP.  Yes, I am in the Albany region now.  More specifically though, I am in Colonie and at 300 feet for elevation.  Areas a few miles to my west as well as areas about a mile across the Hudson are much higher elevation wise.  So there will be instances where it is raining where I live but snowing in those areas.  

Now, while Albany does have typically do better snow wise than NYC, I am concerned about the I-95 crushers that'll screw me over.  Albany has been keeping weather records since 1884.  In the 135 snow seasons, only 9 times has NYC out-snowed Albany.  Three of those nine though happened in the past 15 years: 2005-06, 2009-10, and 2015-16.   2005-06 had the February 11-12, 2006 Roidzilla for I-95.  2009-10 had virtually everything suppressed.  2015-16 had the January 23, 2016 snow event which gave 27.5" to NYC but 0" for Albany.  

Last Tuesday, I had my first accumulations.  It was actually freezing rain for a couple of hours before changing over to a coating of snow by daybreak.  Since I drive to work 6 miles away, the struggle was scraping the ice off the car.  Since I never really had to drive much in the snow in NYC (I took public transportation to work beforehand), it was something to be picked up on.

Anyway, this being the long range thread, it does look like the next couple of weeks look to be on the cold side overall. It wouldn't shock me if this ends up becoming the coldest November in decades around these parts.



You will get your share of snow this season trust me. Hopefully you will be hearing the term "mohawk convergence"  plenty this year. The difference in weather between the city and where you are is night and day, especially in winter.
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Post by sroc4 on Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:33 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Thanks for posting updates Mugs. Beginning next week through the end of the month there looks to be multiple chances for our first accumulating snow. The MJO wave I've talked about in my last few posts is now crossing the Dateline, leading me to believe some of the warmer than normal SSTA's along the equatorial Pacific is causing enough instability to keep these waves long-lived. This in part is due to the Nino-like conditions.

The result looks like a very anomalous ridge off the west coast. We need to watch if that ridge axis is still too far west. That would risk storms tracking along the coast rather than off the coast. However, the -NAO blocking Mugs posted could help suppress some of that. The models are going back and forth on the strength of the -NAO but it does seem likely we'll see a ridge pressing down from Greenland.

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 EJgCu7zWwAEYF8w?format=jpg&name=900x900


Im just not as excited as many seem to be at the prospect of a sustained west based -NAO, at least not over the next few weeks.  It may set up more consistently later but I just cant get excited about it now.   Perhaps its because the elusive sustained winter season west based -NAO (aka the unicorn) just hasn't existed very much despite tales of its prospective arrival over the past few years.  

That said I like the prospects of the split flow setting up for the end of the week.  ULL in the SW ejecting energy in the southern branch, with northern branch energy digging into the GL and NE.  Of course timing is everything but there is a shot at some accumulating snow out of it.  Model chaos will def be the theme early on in the week until they can get a handle on the details of the timing strength, etc of he energy ejecting out of the SW and diving in from Canada.  Still some pretty significant differences along the EC as well as out west 4days out.  This is euro and GFS valid Wed 18z this week.  

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 500mb_15
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 500mb_16

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 Ecmwf-13
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 Gfs-de10

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Post by sroc4 on Sat Nov 16, 2019 1:38 pm

Even more differences at 500 for 2 days later valid 18z friday. Again model mayhem is very commin in a split flow pattern. Dont trust any solns

Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 Ecmwf-14
Long Range Thread 19.0 - Page 3 Gfs-de11

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)
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WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
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WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS Trace (First snow Nov 12th)
November 12th = trace
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Post by skinsfan1177 on Sat Nov 16, 2019 3:02 pm

We need to see the -nao actually materialize as time moves on and in the ops runs too not just the ensembles
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