Long Range Thread 19.0

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Post by phil155 on Mon Feb 03, 2020 1:16 pm

The sunday storm looks more promising for at the very least some snow than we have seen in a while at least up to this point. We are nearly a week away so there is a lot of time. I hope the system Thursday is void of much ice as I need to drive to North Jersey, I am not a fan of driving in icy conditions

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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:24 am

Not much changed in my view for Sunday's threat.  Still think it's on the table right to the coast.  

The risk is the trough circled.  If that beats the ridge down, then this low will scoot off the coast and probably go to our south.  Way too early for anything definitive yet.

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Post by billg315 on Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:10 am

I was looking at water temps along the seaboard today. They seem pretty warm (no surprise). I think going forward coastal areas in particular, and areas just into the interior will have to fight that to hold off on mixing issues. Time is ticking. Things will get more difficult (not impossible, just more factors to consider), for solid snow events after mid-month. We are also fast approaching when “sun angle” becomes a sticking issue for daytime snow.
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Feb 04, 2020 7:20 am

@billg315 wrote:I was looking at water temps along the seaboard today. They seem pretty warm (no surprise). I think going forward coastal areas in particular, and areas just into the interior will have to fight that to hold off on mixing issues. Time is ticking. Things will get more difficult (not impossible, just more factors to consider), for solid snow events after mid-month. We are also  fast approaching when “sun angle” becomes a sticking issue for daytime snow.

East of the Fall Line to the Jersey Coast after March 1 it becomes very difficult to get significant snow. NYC, LI is a bit of a different story, but Lower Monmouth on south very difficult after March 1. Just so many things have to go right. Over 500 feet elevation and west of the Fall Line it's not as big of an issue until mid/late March.

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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Feb 04, 2020 5:19 pm

FWIW.  The 18Z GFS looked like a nice little short wave.  The 700mb moisture was carried further north as the trough was sharper and went more negative. Consequently, it doesn't just scoot east out to sea.  That is a good sign.

I don't believe temps are the risk with this system.  Antecedent air mass is plenty cold and the storm goes under us.  

It's more about how sharp the trough and steep the ridge is to give a little more pop to the short wave.  The Euro was giving it a sharp trough to work with 3 runs ago and consequently had bigger solutions.

I would take my chances with a look like that. Just get that trough to dig a bit more, then you'd have something.

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Post by heehaw453 on Wed Feb 05, 2020 7:42 am

Well the short wave still there, but it has complete separation with the northern stream.  So it just gets washed out.  All guidance now showing that, so probably a done deal for us.  Too bad as cold air was plentiful and the track was not to our west.

This is the look guidance now shows.  File this to the winter of our discontent drawer.

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Post by dkodgis on Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:31 am

"Now is the winter of our discontent / Made glorious summer by this sun"

I love Steinbeck. This winter, not so much. Yes, things look blah outside with little chance for snow. Time for a good read. I suggest Travels With Charley.
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:27 am

@heehaw453 wrote:Well the short wave still there, but it has complete separation with the northern stream.  So it just gets washed out.  All guidance now showing that, so probably a done deal for us.  Too bad as cold air was plentiful and the track was not to our west.

This is the look guidance now shows.  File this to the winter of our discontent drawer.

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Post by phil155 on Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:25 am

Would have been nice to see a little snow later Saturday into Sunday and maybe this will trend in the right direction.

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Post by algae888 on Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:09 pm

That's a big flip on guidance today in the long range. Starting about mid-week next week. If this is correct. We could have our first zero degree reading for parts of the area late next week with chances for snow. Don't trust anything 7 days out. So we shall see but this definitely isn't Fantasyland.
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Post by Bkdude on Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:11 pm

@algae888 wrote:That's a big flip on guidance today in the long range. Starting about mid-week next week. If this is correct. We could have our first zero degree reading for parts of the area late next week with chances for snow. Don't trust anything 7 days out. So we shall see but this definitely isn't Fantasyland.

Hello?? Are you serious?

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Post by algae888 on Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:22 pm

@Bkdude wrote:
@algae888 wrote:That's a big flip on guidance today in the long range. Starting about mid-week next week. If this is correct. We could have our first zero degree reading for parts of the area late next week with chances for snow. Don't trust anything 7 days out. So we shall see but this definitely isn't Fantasyland.

Hello?? Are you serious?

The GFS has Low temp for White Plains of 9 degrees and 6 degrees for next Friday and Saturday mornings. The CMC is 12 And 2 degrees for the same days haven't looked at the Euro yet Temperature wise but 500 looks cold end of next week into the weekend we shall see.
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Post by algae888 on Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:28 pm

With the AO possibly record-breaking High anomaly And a sub 940 low between Greenland and Iceland In the next several days you wonder if there's going to be a rubber band effect from this. The AO is going to plunge from around + 6 to 0 according to guidance. We have the cold on our side of the globe just not into the mid-latitude yet. Maybe this will be the mechanism to get it here. We shall see.
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Post by Bkdude on Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:33 pm

@algae888 wrote:
@Bkdude wrote:
@algae888 wrote:That's a big flip on guidance today in the long range. Starting about mid-week next week. If this is correct. We could have our first zero degree reading for parts of the area late next week with chances for snow. Don't trust anything 7 days out. So we shall see but this definitely isn't Fantasyland.

Hello?? Are you serious?

The GFS has Low temp for White Plains of 9 degrees and 6 degrees for next Friday and Saturday mornings. The CMC is 12 And 2 degrees for the same days haven't looked at the Euro yet Temperature wise but 500 looks cold  end of next week into the weekend we shall see.


But no snow??

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Post by sroc4 on Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:36 pm

@Bkdude wrote:
@algae888 wrote:
@Bkdude wrote:
@algae888 wrote:That's a big flip on guidance today in the long range. Starting about mid-week next week. If this is correct. We could have our first zero degree reading for parts of the area late next week with chances for snow. Don't trust anything 7 days out. So we shall see but this definitely isn't Fantasyland.

Hello?? Are you serious?

The GFS has Low temp for White Plains of 9 degrees and 6 degrees for next Friday and Saturday mornings. The CMC is 12 And 2 degrees for the same days haven't looked at the Euro yet Temperature wise but 500 looks cold  end of next week into the weekend we shall see.


But no snow??

First you need the cold

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Post by algae888 on Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:51 pm

The euro is not as cold, but still below normal. And gives the area several inches of snow from a few different systems next week. All guidance today flipped starting around day five. I mean a 180 degree flip. the euro was showing 70s next week. Now normal to below-normal temperatures On the operational today. I should also note that the GEfS also flipped to cold. We shall see as I don't trust anything this winter.
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Post by Bkdude on Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:04 pm

@algae888 wrote:The euro is not as cold, but still below normal. And gives the area several inches of snow from a few different systems next week. All guidance today flipped starting around day five. I mean a 180 degree flip. the euro was showing 70s next week. Now normal to below-normal temperatures On the operational today. I should also note that the GEfS also flipped to cold. We shall see as I don't trust anything this winter.

The way it sounded from people it was the end.

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Post by Bkdude on Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:06 pm

Everyone was crying. I was one of them

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Post by mwilli on Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:55 pm

A small crack weather wise for possibility of the white stuff coming,almost like what the Knicks did today,new team president and "world wise wes"on board..its at least a good start

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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:09 pm

@Bkdude wrote:Everyone was crying. I was one of them

My take.

i don't see enough favorable 500mb aspects that makes me excited about the next 10 days.  A small window and fortuitous event can not be ruled out, but I'm expecting nothing and maybe we get lucky.

Algae's right though in the sense today looked more favorable than yesterday, but I'd like to see this look for several more days with growing model agreement. We shall see.

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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:07 pm

Sorry for lack of posts lately. Personal life became busy and also our winter weather pattern is abysmal. After taking a glance at things today I remain pessimistic. The EPS shows a SE ridge in place from February 10th-20th. You just know this pattern will break in time when we are all ready for spring. At that point, I don't see the point of snow if its going to be of the wet kind when you are battling sun angle and surface temps.

Its been a horrific winter. I do not see an end in sight.

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Post by dkodgis on Fri Feb 07, 2020 12:16 pm

42 days until spring.
134 days until summer
318 days to winter

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Feb 07, 2020 5:11 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Sorry for lack of posts lately. Personal life became busy and also our winter weather pattern is abysmal. After taking a glance at things today I remain pessimistic. The EPS shows a SE ridge in place from February 10th-20th. You just know this pattern will break in time when we are all ready for spring. At that point, I don't see the point of snow if its going to be of the wet kind when you are battling sun angle and surface temps.

Its been a horrific winter. I do not see an end in sight.

so depressing....I try to be a half glass full type of gal..but really need to have an empty glass to survive this horrible snowless winter the last 2 years...side note joined a snow lovers group on FB..I get to live vicariously thru the pictures of others..
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Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:34 pm

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AO looks to crash in the long range. Cold & stormy if it comes to fruition. Hope it's not another head fake.
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Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Feb 07, 2020 7:50 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Sorry for lack of posts lately. Personal life became busy and also our winter weather pattern is abysmal. After taking a glance at things today I remain pessimistic. The EPS shows a SE ridge in place from February 10th-20th. You just know this pattern will break in time when we are all ready for spring. At that point, I don't see the point of snow if its going to be of the wet kind when you are battling sun angle and surface temps.

Its been a horrific winter. I do not see an end in sight.

so depressing....I try to be a half glass full type of gal..but really need to have an empty glass to survive this horrible snowless winter the last 2 years...side note joined a snow lovers group on FB..I get to live vicariously thru the pictures of others..

Joanne, follow Reed Timmer on FB and Twitter. Since he moved to Colorado, he has been chasing snow storms as well as tornadoes! Very Happy

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